Ranking O's 2021 Trade Deadline candidates

July 24th, 2021

BALTIMORE -- With the July 30 Trade Deadline less than a week away, teams have already begun swapping players. In days, that activity is likely to reach a fever pitch across the league.

All of which makes it an important time of year for teams like the Orioles, who are clear sellers heading into the Deadline. They’ve been no stranger to midseason trades in recent years, executing 10 deals over the past three Deadlines to spark -- and advance -- their rebuild.

This time around, what do they have to offer? What might they receive in return? Let’s take a closer look. Here are the Orioles' trade candidate power rankings, in order of likeliest of being dealt:

LHP
Contract status: First-time arbitration eligible 2022
Likelihood of being dealt: Strong
Odds: Trending up

Contenders are always looking for relief help at the Deadline, and the Orioles have capitalized in recent years, trading Mychal Givens, Miguel Castro, Richard Bleier and others for prospects midseason. Fry looks like the most likely to join that list, given his age (28), peripherals and the fact that he’s controllable through 2024.

Fry struggled for a few weeks after briefly assuming the closer’s role in June, but he was lights-out prior as a situational lefty, and he hasn’t allowed a home run in 37 2/3 innings across 38 games. He ranks among the Majors’ best relievers in hard-hit rate (92nd percentile), expected slugging (98th percentile), barrel percentage (98th percentile) and strikeout rate (91st percentile), per Statcast.

LHP
Contract status: First-time arbitration eligible 2022
Likelihood of being dealt: Fair
Odds: Trending up

When Scott’s command is there, his upside is obvious: it’s a high-90s fastball and wipeout slider from the left side, stuff hitters almost never drive with authority (0.5 home runs per nine over the past two seasons). Teams certainly will come calling for that arsenal alone, even if Scott’s control (28 walks in 39 1/3 innings) remains his Achilles’ heel. The question is which the Orioles believe is worth more: the prospect or two Scott would fetch in a deal, or the chance he harnesses his stuff enough to blossom into a true late-inning weapon in Baltimore. Any trade would also risk him doing that elsewhere.

RF
Contract status: Second-year arbitration eligible 2022
Likelihood of being dealt: Low
Odds: Trending down

The Orioles fielded trade offers for Santander last winter after the switch-hitter broke out with 11 home runs and an .890 OPS during the shortened 2020 season. But Santander’s ’20 campaign was cut short by an oblique injury, and the sprained ankle he suffered April 20 zapped his power for weeks this season -- he’s hit just six homers in 62 games, and is currently on the COVID-19 injured list. It probably doesn’t behoove the O’s to sell him low, and his injury history could very well scare potential suitors away.

LHP
Contract status: First-time arbitration eligible 2022
Likelihood of being dealt: Low
Odds: Trending down

Means is healthy again after missing six weeks with a left shoulder strain, the left-hander landing on the injured list for the fourth time in three seasons. Just being active boosts his chances of being dealt, but only slightly. It will take a massive haul to convince the Orioles to part with their homegrown ace, especially since he’s under club control through 2024. Perhaps they’ll receive that kind of offer from a contender desperate for rotation help. But odds are, they will not, and the odds are even lower that they’ll pull the trigger.

1B
Contract status: Third-year arbitration eligible 2022
Likelihood of being dealt: Low
Odds: Trending down

This is similar to the Means situation, only heightened. The Orioles would need to be OK with stomaching the massive public relations hit that would come with dealing Mancini after he re-emerged as an impact slugger this year -- he’s slashing .261/.333/.459, with 16 homers, 57 RBIs and a 117 OPS+ -- after beating Stage 3 colon cancer. And doing so would require receiving a prospect bundle in return they simply can’t pass up, unlikely given Mancini’s bat-first skillset and limited defensive versatility. Whether the Orioles deal Mancini will be a focus of the Deadline this year, and it could happen. But at this point, his story alone probably makes him more valuable to the Orioles than any other team.

SS
Contract status: Signed through 2021
Likelihood of being dealt: Minimal
Odds: Trending down

Galvis looked like one of the Orioles’ prime trade candidates before suffering a serious right quad strain on June 26. He is currently rehabbing at their complex in Sarasota, Fla., but hasn’t progressed to game action with less than a week until the Deadline. The Orioles are hopeful Galvis can return before July 30, and maybe that happens. But if he’s inactive at the Deadline, his odds of being dealt are miniscule.