Elias on O's offseason, roster questions: 'It's all I think about'

October 12th, 2023

BALTIMORE -- The Orioles’ remarkable 2023 season is over, their offseason having arrived several weeks earlier than they’d have liked. Now the focus shifts to 2024.

On Thursday morning -- about 36 hours after Baltimore was swept out of the postseason, falling in Game 3 of the American League Division Series at Texas -- general manager Mike Elias and manager Brandon Hyde held end-of-season press conferences at Camden Yards. Both shared their appreciation for the players on a team that won 101 games and an AL East title.

The leadership duo also reconfirmed their long-term commitments to the Orioles. Neither Elias nor Hyde have publicly disclosed the lengths of their contracts, but Elias stated both will be returning for the 2024 season.

“We are 100 percent in on this,” Elias said. “We are giving our hearts and souls and minds and quite a bit of experience to this. And I hope that lasts forever.”

So, where does Baltimore go from here? How does the club maintain its spot atop a competitive AL East division and better position itself for October success?

There’s plenty for Elias and the rest of the Orioles’ front office to ponder as the rest of the MLB postseason unfolds and they prepare for the upcoming Hot Stove season.

A handful of players will be hitting free agency
The Orioles have five players who will be free agents this offseason: infielder Adam Frazier, outfielder Aaron Hicks and pitchers Jack Flaherty, Shintaro Fujinami and Kyle Gibson.

It wouldn’t be surprising if none of them return to Baltimore. Last offseason, the O’s parted with all three of their free agents (catcher Robinson Chirinos, infielder Rougned Odor and first baseman Jesús Aguilar) and declined right-hander Jordan Lyles’ club option, replacing that group of veterans with others.

Flaherty and Fujinami were the Orioles’ two acquisitions ahead of the Aug. 1 Trade Deadline, and neither right-hander panned out. Flaherty had a 6.75 ERA in nine outings (seven starts), pitching his way out of the rotation. Fujinami recorded a 4.85 ERA in 30 appearances before getting left off the ALDS roster.

Frazier (who will be 32 next season), Gibson (36) and Hicks (34) were key contributors who provided strong leadership.

“I think that’s an important part of the clubhouse. Mike’s done a great job of getting the right type of veteran guys in here,” Hyde said. “Those guys have made a huge impact on our younger players.”

Perhaps Baltimore will consider bringing back Frazier, Gibson and/or Hicks on one-year deals for 2024. Or it could target similar players to fill those roles. But the O’s also have MLB-ready talent in the upper levels of the Minors.

What do the Orioles do with all of these position-player prospects?
Baltimore’s top-ranked farm system has a logjam of talent. Five of the club’s top seven prospects (all position players) finished the year at Triple-A Norfolk and are on the big league doorstep. That doesn’t even include outfielder Heston Kjerstad (the O’s No. 3 prospect and MLB Pipeline’s No. 24 overall), who ended the season by getting his first taste of the Majors.

It’s not easy to figure out how the Orioles will make room for all of these prospects who should become permanent big leaguers soon, such as outfielders Colton Cowser and Kjerstad and infielders Coby Mayo, Joey Ortiz and Connor Norby. Baltimore could trade one (or several) to bolster its 2024 pitching staff.

“It’s all I think about every day of my life, is how to do this stuff,” Elias said. “We have an amazing farm system, and there’s a lot of ways that that benefits you. It’s a good thing. We’re going to do our jobs this winter.”

There’s one player who won’t be traded: Jackson Holliday. MLB Pipeline’s No. 1 overall prospect jumped four levels in his first full season in Baltimore’s system, ending the year with an 18-game stint with Triple-A Norfolk.

Holliday, who turns 20 on Dec. 4, will again be in big league Spring Training next year. In 2023, it was a learning experience for the ‘22 No. 1 overall Draft pick. In ‘24, he’ll be battling for a spot on the Opening Day roster.

“When you’re 19 and then you’re 20, it’s one year, but that’s a lot of aging and physical development,” Elias said. “I can’t wait to see what he looks like in Spring Training. Look forward to having him there -- he’s going to have a chance to make the team.”

Raises are coming for arbitration-eligible players, along with decisions for the O’s
Last offseason, the Orioles had six players eligible for arbitration. The list is much longer this winter, with 16 who will need to either come to terms with the team or go to a hearing. The biggest raises are likely to go to starting outfielders Anthony Santander, Cedric Mullins and Austin Hays and lefty John Means. (Salary projections are available at MLBTradeRumors.com.)

“Looking at the arbitration list writ large, it’s a healthy group,” Elias said. “I think the fact that we have so many, it’s kind of an earmark of having a good roster these days.”

It could lead to some tough roster decisions for Baltimore, which might opt to non-tender several arb-eligible players. Elias did not say whether he expects the team’s payroll to significantly increase for the 2024 season when he was asked Thursday.

“I’m just in Day One of our offseason,” Elias said. “That’s my answer.”