This story was excerpted from Keegan Matheson’s Blue Jays Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
We’re coming up on a fascinating eight months for Matt Chapman.
Upon signing his 11-year, $350 million deal with the Padres, Manny Machado had to be the happiest man in baseball. Perhaps his agent was No. 2 and his teammates and family rounded out the top three.
But Chapman had to be close behind.
Chapman is entering his free-agent year at age 29, and in the simplest of terms, a player’s value on the open market is determined by two major factors: their own talent and the alternatives.
Not only is Chapman one of the game’s finest third basemen, but with Machado no longer headed to free agency next winter, he’s the premiere name available at the hot corner. Teams will be lining up for the steady veteran who has established a reputation as one of the game’s elite defenders, and it’s easy to bet on Chapman having a big season at the plate at just the right time.
“The floor is what we saw last year,” manager John Schneider said earlier in camp. “You’re going to get 20-something home runs and 80 RBIs. For him, it was about trying to cut down on the swing and stay on the opposite side of the field a little bit. He spends a lot of time with Bo [Bichette]. He’s got a bit of a two-strike approach now, similar to Bo. Working on contact and putting the ball in play, with shifting being what it is, will be at a premium.”
Chapman has three Gold Glove Awards to his name, and although he didn’t win one last year, multiple coaches and teammates have said -- in a very direct manner -- that he should have. His .229 average with 27 home runs and a .757 OPS are slightly below some of his career averages, but it always felt like Chapman was close to a power surge.
In that sense, he’s a fine candidate to benefit from Toronto’s new outfield dimensions at Rogers Centre, where the power alleys have been moved in with higher walls. For stretches in 2022, Chapman was the king of the fly ball to the warning track, just missing out on much bigger numbers.
A former A’s infielder coming to Toronto and peaking right in time for free agency isn’t uncommon. Marcus Semien did it with his 45-homer season in 2021, which he turned into a seven-year, $175 million deal with the Rangers. It’s Chapman’s turn now, and just like Semien, we’re talking about one of the most respected players in baseball.
“He’s just trying to win every night. He’s one of the best teammates that I’ve seen,” Schneider said. “For a guy who came in with a short Spring Training last year, he really acclimated well and quickly. You’re going to see more of that this year, because guys respect him. His voice is definitely heard in the clubhouse. He wasn’t totally satisfied with his offensive numbers last year, so I think he’s going to come out on a pretty good mission.”
If this situation plays out in the likeliest fashion, which would be Chapman hitting free agency after a strong 2023 season, of course the Blue Jays would want to be at the front of the line for his services. But it will naturally bring the conversation of who’s next if this turns out to be Chapman's final year with the organization.
No. 6 prospect Addison Barger, the darling of Spring Training in 2023, is an early option. The same goes for No. 4 prospect Orelvis Martinez, but as always with prospects, so much can change in a year. It’s still way too early to go that far down the road, but the day is coming, especially if Chapman puts together a big season at the best possible time.