Trading outside the box? How Twins could get creative with swaps
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It’s one of president of baseball and business operations Derek Falvey’s favorite phrases: “Getting creative.”
As the baseball world prepares to descend upon Dallas for next week’s Winter Meetings, it’s sure looking like creativity will again be the name of the game for a Twins team that can really pick its own adventure through this offseason.
The division has gotten so much better -- three non-Twins teams made the playoffs from the AL Central in 2024 and aren’t showing signs of slowing down -- and Minnesota can’t exactly ignore the totality of its offense’s disappearance down the stretch of last season, especially from its core young hitters.
But if the Twins want to change that, they’ll probably need to -- as they’ve often done in previous offseasons -- find creative trade fits. What might they have to offer in need-for-need trades, as they’ve tried to find with some frequency? Let’s take a look.
The obvious veterans: Christian Vázquez, Chris Paddack
The pros: Salary flexibility
It would certainly help the Twins to free up some money, and these are the two prime candidates who might help them do that. Vázquez is due $10 million as part of a catching timeshare, and Paddack is due $7.5 million as either the No. 4 or 5 starter on the depth chart.
Those are the highest non-star salaries on the team (i.e. anyone not named Pablo López, Carlos Correa or Byron Buxton) and both are expiring deals. It makes a ton of sense.
The cons: Catching depth, questionable return value
On the other hand, over the past two years, the Twins’ pitching staff has had the luxury of working with only two catchers for the entire 162-game season. That consistency matters, and Vázquez is a solid defender and very well-liked veteran presence in the clubhouse.
Jair Camargo is the last catcher on the 40-man roster, and he got a few sips of coffee in the big leagues last year (it would be overstating it to even call it the quintessential “cup of coffee,” really). Parting ways with Vázquez to give Camargo (or a free agent) half of the timeshare adds a lot of uncertainty.
And even beyond that: Would the Twins even realistically get much by selling low on either of these players? Probably not.
Prime starting pitchers: Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober
The pros: Lots of return value, area of depth
Ober was the Twins’ best starting pitcher for much of the 2024 season and has a 3.76 ERA in his 88-start big league career. Ryan has shown stretches of high-end dominance and brings a 3.92 ERA in his 84 big league starts. They are 29 and 28, respectively, have proven track records, are clearly trending up and have three remaining seasons of club control.
This would be the kind of trade offering that could bring back a significant haul, in terms of both big league talent and/or good prospects. And, for once, the Twins actually have starting depth, with López, these two, Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa, Paddack, Zebby Matthews (who still needs more Triple-A seasoning) and more intriguing arms behind them.
Could they immediately replace one of their best starters? Not really -- but they’re about as well-situated to do so as they’ve ever been.
The cons: Why mess with a good thing?
On the other hand, it might seem like utter lunacy for Twins fans to finally look at a starting rotation with some depth and meat to it, after all these years of pitching questions, and have the first thought be to break that group apart.
If the starting pitching figures to be the strength of this team -- especially with questions surrounding the offense -- why not just lean into that strength? Clearly, depth on paper doesn’t always translate to depth in practice, as the Twins have seen firsthand of late.
Just hear me out: Griffin Jax, Jhoan Duran
The pros: Good value, area of depth
Jax’s emergence into one of the elite relievers in the sport has this group trending way up, considering the breakout season for Cole Sands, the possible conversion of Louie Varland to full-time relief and the high-upside health wild cards of Brock Stewart and Justin Topa.
There’s sneaky depth to this bullpen, too. Given where Jax and Duran are in their contract cycles (both arbitration-eligible for the first time this year) and the caliber of their seasons, there’s an argument to be made that their value will never be higher -- and the Twins have long made clear that they typically think of reliever performance as volatile.
The cons: Again, why mess with a good thing?
Same argument as before, really. Why take a beloved and exciting bullpen 1-2 punch and break it up? The Twins could -- and should -- ask for a lot.