This story was excerpted from Keegan Matheson's Blue Jays Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

TORONTO -- Today, tomorrow and every day until the music stops, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is the most important thing in the Blue Jays’ world.

This goes beyond Guerrero’s numbers, his 2024 renaissance leaving him with 30 home runs and a .940 OPS. He’s the face of a franchise that means something to him. He’s wrapped both arms around a city that hasn’t always been embraced by baseball’s stars. He’s grown to understand the responsibility that comes with greatness.

These things aren’t easy to find. When you do, hold on tight.

There’s a version of this story that ends with Guerrero, 162 games from now, walking away from the Blue Jays and playing a decade elsewhere. There’s a version that ends with Guerrero being the one that got away while the Blue Jays wrestle with the realities of missed opportunities and another rebuild. Vladdy, like Bo Bichette, is entering his final year of club control with the Blue Jays, and the “will they or won’t they” extension talks will dominate this offseason.

“I’ve said this to Bo and Vladdy: They have done very powerful things already,” general manager Ross Atkins said. “They’ve done them as a team. They’ve done exceptional things to win [in] the AL East -- not enough to their standards, nor mine or the fans -- but what they’ve accomplished already is exceptional, and there’s a lot of good baseball ahead of them. I hope it’s together.”

Blue Jays fans, understandably, would like to see more than a handful of 0-2 visits to the AL Wild Card Series before using the word “exceptional.” The coming year can take many shapes -- Bichette and even Juan Soto holding so much power in that -- but Guerrero stands now as the heart of it all.

Why “now” matters

Building a “sustainable winner” is every front office’s dream, that ship forever on the horizon, but many contenders are staring at the next two or three seasons in front of them. The Blue Jays might be staring at a fork in the road.

Along with Guerrero and Bichette, Chris Bassitt, Jordan Romano, Chad Green and Erik Swanson will be free agents after 2025. Look one year further down the line and you’ll see pending free agency for Kevin Gausman, George Springer, Daulton Varsho and Alejandro Kirk. José Berríos could opt out of the final two years of his contract then, too.

The simple version? There’s an off-ramp for the Blue Jays, if they choose to crank the wheel and take it.

Agents know this. Players know this. If you’re Soto, Alex Bregman, Anthony Santander or any other top free agent, that’s going to be a question. Money always wins, but a free agent signing up to play with Vladdy will want to know if that marriage will last … or if a year from now, they’ll live in a different reality completely.

Extending Guerrero during this offseason would also signal a full commitment from the Blue Jays to maintaining high payrolls not just into 2025, but beyond. Ownership has allowed this front office to spend to record levels in this market, and the team has spent much of that money very wisely -- particularly in the rotation. But a Guerrero extension would be the surest sign of that continuing.

How this organization views 2026 and beyond, though, holds the power in all of this.

The case for “later”

This isn’t what anyone wants to hear -- and it can’t be Plan A -- but a trip to free agency can still be part of the process. Think of Aaron Judge, who hit free agency and flirted with the field before returning to the Yankees. That’s a fine blueprint for Guerrero, and the Blue Jays may be attracted to it if they don’t like his asking price.

What’s the number, anyways? Rafael Devers’ deal with the Red Sox is useful to frame the neighborhood this conversation could live in (10 years, $313.5 million).

There’s great risk in allowing a player of Guerrero’s caliber to reach free agency, but that’s a strategy that clubs have actively used as a tool. If Guerrero enters free agency perceived as a first baseman -- keep an eye on those third-base reps in 2025 -- then the Blue Jays could allow other clubs’ interest to set the market and accept the risk that comes along with it.

That all feels so far down the road, though, doesn’t it? This market and its fans need a spark, and Guerrero, once again, is lightning.