The great unknown for every team in 2024

The great unknown for every team in 2024

March 27th, 2024

So much can go right -- or wrong -- over the course of a 162-game season. Not even MLB's best teams can predict exactly how their 2024 campaign is going to play out, leaving the door open for what can be a frightening concept: the great unknown.

Injury concerns, player development and more represent the largest questions looming for all 30 teams ahead of Opening Day on Thursday. With the help of each club's MLB.com beat writer, here is the biggest unknown for every team heading into 2024.

Jump to: AL East | AL Central | AL West | NL East | NL Central | NL West

American League East

Blue Jays: Which pitcher will step up?
With 's shoulder issue keeping him sidelined to begin the season, the Blue Jays need a success story on the mound. This rotation has been very healthy over the past two seasons, so this might feel new, but there’s nothing unusual about needing nine or 10 starters over a single season. is the first to step into the spotlight coming off an excellent 2023 season out of the bullpen, but can Francis stretch back out and solidify that No. 5 spot? He’s looked great in camp, but much is being asked of him. Beyond Francis, can No. 1 prospect stay healthy and kick the door down by mid-summer? That would raise the ceiling of this group significantly, but for now, it’s all about protecting the floor. -- Keegan Matheson

Orioles: Will the -less bullpen be strong enough?
While their All-Star closer recovers from Tommy John surgery, the O’s will hope can still be an effective ninth-inning arm in his age-36 season. The right-hander, who ranks eighth in AL/NL history with 417 career saves, ended the spring by striking out six over four straight scoreless appearances, so he may still have plenty left in the tank. But Baltimore will also lean heavily on setup arms such as (an All-Star rookie in 2023) and , who don’t have long track records. and had shaky springs. The X-factor of the group is , who missed all of last season due to right elbow/forearm injuries and returned to have an electric spring. -- Jake Rill

Rays: Can the rotation hold up?
The Rays traded away Tyler Glasnow knowing they were likely to be without all season, in the early going, for perhaps the first half and for likely a little longer than that. Now, they’re expected to miss (right pectoral strain) for the first month of the season. This was already a group with workload concerns, given some starters’ injury history and others’ limited experience in a Major League rotation. But without any top pitching prospects banging down the door in Triple-A, they need their top starters (, and ) to be durable and their young arms ( and Bradley) to take a step forward until the reinforcements (Baz, Springs and Rasmussen) arrive later in the year. -- Adam Berry

Red Sox: Will the rotation be good enough?
When this offseason started, the expectation was that the Red Sox were going to add to a rotation that finished 22nd in the Majors in ERA last season. It turns out that the one addition they made – righty – is already lost for the season following a UCL repair on his elbow. got traded, and left via free agency. This leaves the Sox with a rotation in which is the lone veteran and four pitchers in their mid-20s (, , and ) must take steps forward for the club to have a realistic chance to contend. -- Ian Browne

Yankees: Can this team stay healthy enough to get to October?
We see the potential on paper, and the December move to import provides an added dimension to the offense, with manager Aaron Boone saying that Soto perfectly represents the grind-it-out attitude that the Bombers seek from their lineup. But every injury sets off new flashing red sirens on a veteran roster: could miss the first two months with a sore right elbow, is a "long shot" for Opening Day with a bruised right foot, and had to miss nine days of camp with abdominal discomfort. Missing Judge and for large portions of the season sunk their chances in 2023. To get where they want to be, the Yankees need their big names in action. -- Bryan Hoch

AL Central

Guardians: Can the offense score enough runs?
Even with starter and three relievers beginning the year on the injured list, the Guardians should still be in pretty good shape when it comes to their pitching. When it comes to the offense, we don’t have enough evidence to believe that it can be better than last year’s just yet. The two differences with this roster from 2023 are the additions of catcher and outfielder and the removal of center fielder . Hedges is known for his leadership and his defense … not his bat. Florial could help offensively, but after an underwhelming spring, it’s hard to simply assume that will be the case. Getting more consistent at-bats in center field could be a help, replacing Straw’s lackluster bat. But this is an offense that ranked last in homers, 29th in slugging percentage and 27th in runs scored last year. They’ll need to find a way to push more runs across the plate. -- Mandy Bell

Royals: Will the bullpen have enough power?
The Royals remade their bullpen with strike-throwers who know how to pitch. will be their closer to begin the season, but others will get opportunities, including . To be clear, all have good stuff, and McArthur sits 94-95 mph with nasty secondary pitches. They all pound the zone and will be reliable in the back end of games. But the Royals are missing a fireballer -- somebody who can dominate hitters with high velocity. Internal options won’t help right away: (shoulder) will begin the season on the injured list, as will hard-throwing lefty (hamstring). Prospects John McMillon (No. 18) and Will Klein (No. 19) both reach triple digits but will open the season in Triple-A Omaha. All four should be able to help Kansas City at some point in 2024, but when and how much is still to be determined. -- Anne Rogers

Tigers: Can Colt Keith be a run producer immediately?
The Tigers thought enough of to sign him to a long-term contract before he makes his MLB debut. Now the Tigers’ No. 2 prospect gets to put his combination of left-handed power and plate discipline to the test against big league pitching. The Tigers have done their best to temper expectations, pointing out how many talented, highly rated hitting prospects struggled to make the jump last year. But the Tigers are also clear they want to give Keith an opportunity to grab this job and run with it. If he can do that, Detroit’s lineup becomes much deeper. -- Jason Beck

Twins: What does have in the tank?
Not only will Paddack need to show that he has, indeed, bounced back from a second Tommy John surgery, but the Twins will also really be counting on him to do so. With the departures of and , the Twins will be back-filling with Paddack and -- with not a ton of depth behind them. They’ll expect steps forward from and but will also need Paddack to tap into the upside they sought when they traded away on Opening Day 2022. The Twins probably won’t allow the fewest runs in the AL again -- but Paddack’s health and performance will be a significant factor in helping them not take too big of a step back. -- Do-Hyoung Park

White Sox: How will handle starting?
The southpaw expressed a desire to start during a conversation with general manager Chris Getz early on in this past offseason, and Crochet ran with the chance to the point of dominance where his first regular-season start became his first Opening Day start. But Crochet has never thrown more than 54 1/3 innings during a single season and has a 2.71 ERA over 73 career innings covering parts of three campaigns. The White Sox will have to be watchful of his overall pitch counts and innings total, although Crochet believes he will respond well to the consistent schedule of pitching every fifth day. The White Sox also don’t have a set closer, but manager Pedro Grifol is not expected to name one hurler for that role. -- Scott Merkin

AL West

Angels: How will the Halos' young hitters fare?
The Angels have a lot riding on their young core, and it’s going to be the first full season in the Majors for , and . They all have plenty to prove, and it’s hard to project how they will fare this season. The Angels also have to figure out their outfield situation with five outfielders and see if can finally reach some of his potential. And, of course, it’s impossible to predict injuries, and they seemed to ravage the club in the second half of last season. -- Rhett Bollinger

Astros: Does Houston have enough middle relief?
The Astros have starting pitching depth when healthy and boast one of baseball’s premier back-end bullpen trios in setup men and and closer , who signed a five-year deal to join Houston in January. Getting the ball from the starters to the back end of the bullpen could be a little bit challenging considering the number of innings Houston lost from last year’s bullpen. The club is counting on to bounce back and is hoping to get contributions from and lefty , who aren’t as proven as some of the arms the Astros lost in free agency. -- Brian McTaggart

Athletics: Can stay healthy?
For as much excitement as the A’s have shown over their flamethrowing No. 2 prospect, there is an equal amount of concern over Miller’s health. After a UCL sprain sidelined Miller for nearly four months last season after an electric MLB debut, the A’s are taking a cautious approach with him this season by moving him to the bullpen. The hope is that he can emerge as a lights-out closer and maybe even become a starter again in the future. But for 2024, the focus is getting him through the year healthy. -- Martín Gallegos

Mariners: Will the new-look lineup produce?
They believe that a re-tooled group -- headlined by the additions of , and , along with the expected progress of and the hopeful rebound of -- should be better equipped to handle the lows in the ebbs and flows of a six-month season. But spring results can be convoluted; Garver, Haniger and Polanco each have a notable injury history, Canzone has just 59 games of MLB experience and France had, by his estimation, an all-around down year. There’s promise with this new-look group, but also some uncertainty. -- Daniel Kramer

Rangers: Can the bullpen reclaim the postseason magic?
It’s no secret that the Rangers’ bullpen was the weakest link for much of the regular season last year. But guys like and buckled down in the postseason, becoming the biggest strength during Texas’ World Series run. In order to stay on top, those two, plus the new additions of and will have to produce much more stability than the bullpen offered in 2023. -- Kennedi Landry

National League East

Braves: How will perform?
Kelenic doesn’t have to immediately be an All-Star, but he must at least create confidence he is capable of living up to his great potential. He created encouragement near the end of camp as he started to create results with the new swing he developed at the start of Spring Training. The 24-year-old outfielder is a better defender than , and he is certainly capable of besting what Rosario provided as Atlanta’s left fielder last year. But until Kelenic finally finds some consistency, there will be some who doubt his bid to show why he was the game’s No. 4 prospect just three years ago. -- Mark Bowman

Marlins: How will fare as a starter for the first time?
It's one thing to look dominant during Spring Training and another to keep it up over the course of a six-month season. In four Grapefruit League starts, Puk allowed just two earned runs in 13 2/3 innings with 23 strikeouts and four walks. But how much of that can be attributed to opposing lineups seeing his updated arsenal for the first time? And how will Puk's arm hold up with this workload? -- Christina De Nicola

Mets: Does New York have enough upside in its rotation?
New York’s lineup looks solid enough, particularly after the acquisition of J.D. Martinez. Their bullpen is as strong and deep as it’s been in years. But the rotation is filled with question marks. , for example, will miss all of April and possibly some of May recovering from a strained posterior capsule in his right shoulder. has struggled to stay healthy throughout his career; has toiled to find consistency. Will those two, , and be enough to keep the Mets healthy in the first half of the season? Or will the Mets falter before top prospects , and (potentially) come to the rescue in the second half? -- Anthony DiComo

Nationals: How soon will the top prospects debut?
The Nationals invited 16 of their top 30 prospects to Major League camp, where they showed the next chapter of the team is well on its way. (MLB No. 7 overall prospect, Nationals No. 1), (MLB No. 14, Nationals No. 2), (MLB No. 48, Nationals No. 3) and (Nationals No. 8) remained in camp until the final weekend, and (No. 16) was with the team until the end. The Nats do not want to call up their prospects until they are ready to play every day at the Major League level -- now the question is, when will that be? -- Jessica Camerato

Phillies: How much will ' bat improve?
So much has been written this spring about the Phillies center fielder. The Phillies said Rojas needed to earn the job in center field, but they also said they wanted him to win it. They liked enough of what they saw late in camp to put him on the team. Remember: The Phillies do not need Rojas to hit like an All-Star to win. They don’t even need him to be an average big league hitter to win. They just need him to hit enough to keep his glove in center field. Rojas is a truly elite defender. He can help them win with his glove. -- Todd Zolecki

NL Central

Brewers: Who's getting the wins -- and the saves?
The Brewers need pitchers all across the staff to step up if they're going to defend their NL Central title in 2024. is stepping into the ace role for the first time in place of -- how will he handle leading the rotation? Then there are a lot of innings up for grabs behind Peralta, since No. 2 Wade Miley won't be ready to start the season -- can , , and eat those innings? And Milwaukee needs someone to lock down the ninth inning until closer returns -- do , , … or all three … have what it takes? -- David Adler

Cardinals: Did St. Louis do enough to address its pitching?
President of baseball operations John Mozeliak stated that his offseason focus would be on “pitching, pitching and pitching,” and he followed that promise up by signing starters Sonny Gray, and and adding relievers , , , and . But did the club err in not chasing younger and more proven pitching? Gray, 34, missed most of the Grapefruit League action with a hamstring strain, while Gibson (10.80 ERA), Lynn (7.90 ERA), (9.00 ERA) and (5.94 ERA) had forgettable spring performances. The bullpen should be significantly better with Kittredge, Middleton and O’Brien, but questions abound about the starting staff. Should the Cardinals have pursued former Redbird or 2023 NL Cy Young Award winner instead of 36-year-old hurlers Lynn and Gibson? -- John Denton

Cubs: Will stay put at third base?
Pretty quickly after taking on the Cubs’ managerial job, Craig Counsell talked up the potential of the 24-year-old Morel. The manager wanted Morel’s potent bat in the heart of the lineup but also needed a better fit than simply rolling him out as a designated hitter. This spring, Counsell had Morel spend his time nearly exclusively at third base, giving the young infielder a chance to seize that position and improve his performance through consistent work at one spot. If Morel sticks and proves he can handle that role full time, that could be a huge win for Chicago. -- Jordan Bastian

Pirates: Can live up to the hype?
Cruz has perhaps the most boundless potential of any Pirate since broke into the league in 2009. There are also plenty of questions surrounding him, namely his defense and if he can stay healthy. In regards to the latter, he’s played without restriction this spring after missing almost all of 2023 with a fractured ankle. Defensively, he’s moving well in the field, but it hasn’t always been pretty. If Cruz lives up to the hype and stays healthy, he could be a 30-homer, 30-steal candidate while addressing the team’s biggest holes in the lineup last year: A shortstop and a leadoff hitter. Just how close will he come to reaching that potential? -- Alex Stumpf

Reds: Will return to form in Cincinnati?
With the A's, Montas received Cy Young Award votes in 2021, and he was rolling in '22 until his trade to the Yankees. A right shoulder injury and subsequent surgery limited him to 1 1/3 innings of relief last year. The Reds were bullish on Montas and signed him to a one-year, $16 million contract in January to bolster a young rotation. He's been impressive in camp and, more importantly, healthy. If Montas can deliver 30 starts in 2024, his stated goal, and channel his Oakland days, the Reds would be very pleased. -- Mark Sheldon

NL West

D-backs: Will the bullpen be as good as the last two months of the 2023 season?
The D-backs' bullpen was a big reason why they were able to catch and eventually overtake the Cubs for the final NL Wild Card spot last year. This year’s version has the same cast of characters, but bullpen performances can vary wildly from year to year. is a proven closer, but all eyes will be on setup men and to see if they can be as dominant as they were on Arizona’s surprising run to the World Series. -- Steve Gilbert

Dodgers: Who is ?
After winning three consecutive pitching Triple Crowns in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball league, Yamamoto came into this offseason as the top pitching target for more than a handful of organizations. Over the last few years, scouts have raved about Yamamoto’s makeup and his ability to command the baseball. Through spring and his Major League debut start, where he allowed five runs in just one inning, Yamamoto is still looking to prove he deserved the $325 million he got this offseason. -- Juan Toribio

Giants: How will hold up over his first Major League season?
Lee hasn’t missed a beat when it comes to handling big league pitching this spring, but the bigger challenge might be sustaining that productivity over the course of a 162-game season, which will include a far more grueling travel schedule than he experienced while playing in the KBO. The Giants are counting on their $113 million man to be their everyday center fielder and leadoff hitter, so they’ll need him to be a durable and consistent presence in the lineup this year. -- Maria Guardado

Padres: What contributions will San Diego get from its revamped farm?
The 2023 Padres roster was full of veterans and mostly set weeks before the season. The 2024 Padres? Quite the opposite. Top 30 prospects , , , and cracked the Opening Day team in Korea. There are more on the way. The Padres will be relying heavily on their farm in 2024. The contributions from those prospects might make or break their season. -- AJ Cassavell

Rockies: Can remain healthy?
When the Rockies signed Bryant for seven years and $182 million, they knew the roster was going to transition to talented, younger players. It’s happening in the form of shortstop and outfielders and . But sprinkling in an accomplished player like Bryant was supposed to give the team a fighting chance. Bryant, however, has appeared in just 122 games over the first two seasons of the contract because of injury. The best chance for the Rockies to make progress is for the aforementioned young players and more to make an impact, but to also have Bryant producing in the lineup to lessen pressure on them. -- Thomas Harding