This story was excerpted from Jordan Bastian's Cubs Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

CHICAGO -- Cody Bellinger’s future in Chicago was the storyline that followed the Cubs throughout last offseason, occupying headlines at Cubs Convention in January and continuing to dominate the conversation in the early days of Spring Training. The chatter died down after the sides came together on a deal in late February.

Bellinger’s contract -- a three-year pact worth $80 million, but with opt-out clauses after the ‘24 and ‘25 seasons -- offered him a path to avoid that drawn-out free-agent experience, if so desired. He elected not to enter the market this winter, exercising his $27.5 million player option shortly after the World Series ended to remain with the North Siders.

Nonetheless, rumblings about Bellinger’s future with the Cubs persist as next week’s Winter Meetings loom. There has been enough smoke reported to believe that there are indeed trade fires flickering. Let’s break down why the Cubs would explore trading Bellinger.

Roster fit vs. offseason needs
The Cubs entered this offseason with a need to upgrade the offense. The issue was going to be Chicago’s lack of pathways to make that possible, barring trades. The Cubs could look for help at catcher, but the best avenue for adding an impact bat was going to be via a corner outfielder who could double as a designated hitter.

Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki are each under contract with full no-trade clauses, and locked in to left and right field, respectively. Suzuki could also slide to DH, if needed. Pete Crow-Armstrong is set as the regular center fielder. Michael Busch grabbed the full-time first base job last year. Center, right and first are the spots Bellinger plays.

Bellinger’s decision to return checked the box the Cubs had vacant before the club could really start to dive into the free-agent and trade markets to see what other upgrades might be available. Now, it’s possible Bellinger’s production can equal or surpass any external additions. It’s just harder to do that search when the vacancy is filled.

Blocking pathways for prospects
The search for offensive upgrades aside, the Cubs are also trying to keep some pathways open for the Top 100 Prospects who are knocking on the Majors’ door. Outfielders Owen Caissie (Pipeline’s No. 2 Cubs prospect and No. 34 on the Top 100 list) and Kevin Alcántara (No. 6/No. 67) are coming soon and that outfield is packed.

Infielder Matt Shaw (No. 1/No. 22), catcher Moises Ballesteros (No. 4/No. 44) and infielder James Triantos (No. 5/No. 55) are also on the MLB radar for ‘25. Ballesteros, in particular, could be a fit at some point as a DH, while offering depth as a second- or third-string catcher. The issue is that the outfield logjam is impacting the flexibility for that DH slot.

The cost of doing business
The Cubs gave Bellinger his flexible three-year deal knowing that staying in the fold was one path forward for the veteran. And as Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said at the General Managers Meetings last month: “Anytime a really good player decides to stay with you, that's good news.”

Bellinger is indeed a good and valuable player, which is also why it’s due diligence to explore what possibilities exist via trade (especially for teams that may swing and miss in the free-agent bidding war for Juan Soto). Teams may also be hesitant, given both the financial cost ($27.5 million in ‘25, plus either a $25 million salary or a $5 million buyout in ‘26) and the acquisition cost such a move might require.

In 2023, Bellinger posted an .881 OPS, picked up a Silver Slugger Award, won the National League’s Comeback Player of the Year and received down-ballot MVP votes. Last season, a pair of freak injury setbacks (two fractured ribs in April and a fractured left middle finger in July) sapped his power for spells. Still, he has a 125 OPS+ over the last two seasons combined. In the end, maybe the Cubs decide that keeping Bellinger is the smarter move.