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In the mid-2010s, teams got scientific about hitting home runs. The emphasis on the data behind long balls took a front-and-center place as the era of the launch angle began. With a focus on what hitters needed to do lift the ball and drive it in the air more came an increase in swing-and-miss. Teams seemed willing to cope with the uptick in strikeouts as a tradeoff for the run production and big innings.

I’m not using this week’s newsletter to take a side on whether that’s good or bad for the game; I mostly wanted to provide a little context into where the game was, before taking a look at where it is… and, of course, how that filters down to prospects in the Minor Leagues. The main question I want to explore is: Can you be productive with a high K rate?

Interestingly, the amount of guys in the big leagues with a really high strikeout percentage is down this year. There are 26 players (250 plate appearances or more) with a K rate above 30 percent this year. That’s down from 40 in 2023 and 32 in 2022. Of that group, there are only two with an OPS over .800: Tyler O’Neill (.888) and Elly De La Cruz (.811). Those two are joined by Colton Cowser, Giancarlo Stanton, Oneil Cruz and Brandon Marsh as the only six players with a strikeout rate that high and a wRC+ north of 100, or better than league average. O’Neill (141) and De La Cruz (120) lead the group in that category, and both, not shockingly, have walked in more than 10 percent of their plate appearances (as has Marsh, who has a wRC+ of 114).

It’s not surprising to find out that there are more Minor Leaguers with a 30 percent or more strikeout rate this year. They are, after all, younger, less experienced and still figuring things out, right? Among all hitters on a team Top 30 Prospects list with 250 or more PA, there are 37 prospects over that 30-percent threshold. Only six have an OPS over .800:

Brice Matthews, Astros: 30.9% K rate; .913 OPS
Niko Kavadas, Angels: 34.2; .920
Xavier Isaac, Rays: 33.3, .850
Henry Bolte, A’s: 34.7; .834
George Wolkow, White Sox: 40.3; .808
Arjun Nimmala, Blue Jays 30.7; .807

All six of those guys are over 100 wRC+, in case you were wondering, and they are joined by eight more. The wRC+ standings among this set:

Matthews, 156
Isaac, 143
Kavadas, 139
Bolte, 138
Blake Mitchell, Royals, 135
Wolkow, 130
Nimmala, 125
Spencer Jones, Yankees, 124
Adrian Placencia, Angels, 116
Roderick Arias, Yankees, 111
Ivan Melendez, D-backs, 110
Walker Martin, Giants, 108
Kahlil Watson, Guardians, 104
Tyler Gentry, Royals, 101

Everyone on this, with the exception of Melendez (7.7) and Jones (9.9), has posted a walk rate of 10 percent or higher. Most of these guys are younger, and many played at the lower levels, giving them time to cut down the K’s enough to keep being productive as they move up. Because as the rundown of the big leaguers at the top points out, it’s really hard to swing and miss that much and still be valuable at the highest level.