This story was excerpted from Keegan Matheson's Blue Jays Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

DUNEDIN, Fla. -- It has to be Vladdy.

So much needs to go right for the Blue Jays in 2024, but no player holds more power than Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Even as Bo Bichette has become the face of the Blue Jays, it’s Guerrero who still teases the baseball world with the potential to change an organization.

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We saw what that looks like in 2021, but you know the rest. Guerrero’s numbers have regressed for the past two seasons, painting him as a “very good” hitter instead of the generational talent he once flashed, and that ’21 season is the only of the past four that the Blue Jays didn’t make the playoffs.

It was breathtaking to watch … but it’s been a while.

Unless Guerrero can give the Blue Jays more than his .804 OPS over the past two seasons, it’s going to be awfully difficult for this team to get over the hump. He’ll bat second this season, behind George Springer and ahead of Bichette. He looks better. He sounds better. He’s loose again, more natural and more joyful around the field. Guerrero has physical gifts few people on this planet do, but a bounce-back season starts above the shoulders, not below.

“Confidence,” Guerrero said through a club interpreter. “Confidence is the first word I put in my head, the very first thing I put in my head to work on in Spring Training. Thank God, I’m feeling great right now in my confidence.”

That’s a fine start, but what does confidence actually do? How does it show up in Guerrero’s game?

“It helps me to simplify things,” Guerrero said. “Having better at-bats and seeing better pitches, I think that’s the key to having confidence, to help me simplify things.”

Bingo. Simplicity is what Guerrero, as much as any player on this roster, needs. There’s optimism within the organization that he could benefit as much as anyone from the club’s internal shift toward clearer messaging and strategy, which will all run through offensive coordinator Don Mattingly. When Guerrero is being his natural self, free and easy at the plate, that’s when you start to see shades of 2021 again.

“It’s more about the emotional things that happen during the game,” Guerrero explained. “I put them in my head, and I shouldn’t. I understand that we are nine, not just me. I have to trust every one of my teammates, and everybody has to do their job.”

A year ago, there seemed to be a lot going on with Guerrero. His contact was encouraging when he barreled up the ball, and so many signs pointed toward better outcomes, but he didn’t have the spark we’ve seen in the past that made him the sport’s top prospect. At one point during the season, Guerrero’s uncle, Wilton, flew up to Toronto and was on the field with him before batting practice, working on his swing. It felt like there were moving parts, and moving parts are exactly what get in the way of a natural swing.

This is the furthest thing from analytics, but a relaxed and joyful Guerrero is the best version of Vladdy. When strategies, swing mechanics, numbers and expectations begin competing for his attention, that’s when we see the dips in his production.

“The biggest thing with Vladdy is his track record and his history of having such a knack to make elite contact and hit the ball very hard,” said GM Ross Atkins. “We’ve continued to see that his whole career, and we’re really encouraged by his at-bats in Spring Training. Everything about his peripherals is really exciting.”

Guerrero hit .463 in Spring Training, including three home runs. He’s said that he won’t be thinking about numbers in 2024, only winning and enjoying the game he loves. This is exactly where the Blue Jays want Guerrero’s mind to be, which is why manager John Schneider and others on the club’s coaching staff point immediately to his mental game as their biggest reason for optimism.

The 25-year-old understands the weight of all this, too. This club’s window isn’t about to slam shut, but with Guerrero and Bichette two years away from free agency, the clock’s ticking on the organization he was expected to carry.

“Including myself, we didn’t do the job, period,” Guerrero said. “We didn’t do the job. It happened already, and it’s in the past. We’re focusing on the 2024 season, which starts tomorrow.”

So it begins.