Japanese phenom Sasaki posted for MLB teams

December 10th, 2024

Japanese phenom Roki Sasaki was posted by the Chiba Lotte Marines of Nippon Professional Baseball as expected as the Winter Meetings began in Dallas on Monday.

Teams may begin negotiating with the 23-year-old right-hander as of Tuesday, with a window to sign that lasts until 5 p.m. ET on Jan. 23. However, Sasaki reportedly plans to wait until the 2025 international amateur signing period begins on Jan. 15 to agree to a deal. Chiba Lotte announced its intention to post Sasaki on Nov. 9.

Sasaki, who turned 23 on Nov. 3, is regarded as one of the most talented young pitchers in the world, with a fastball that touches 100 mph, a devastating splitter and an improving slider. The results have been just as impressive as his stuff -- over four seasons with the Marines, he has recorded a 2.02 ERA with 524 strikeouts and 91 walks in 414 2/3 innings.

Sasaki tossed the 16th perfect game in NPB history against the Orix Buffaloes on April 10, 2022, while also tying the NPB record with 19 strikeouts and setting a record with 13 consecutive K’s. He followed that up with another flawless start against the Nippon Ham-Fighters, throwing eight perfect innings with 14 K’s.

Sasaki did experience a bit of a downturn from his previous heights in 2024, as his ERA (2.35), WHIP (1.04), strikeout rate (28.7%), walk rate (7.1%) and K/BB ratio (4.03) all regressed, while his average fastball velocity dropped from 98.9 mph to 96.9 mph year over year.

Still, Sasaki should inspire an all-out pursuit from MLB clubs, reminiscent of the widespread interest Shohei Ohtani received when he made the move from NPB to MLB in 2017. Ohtani agreed to a $2.315 million signing bonus with the Angels that December.

An unfettered market would have given Ohtani the opportunity to seek a much larger contract, but foreign-born players are subject to international bonus pool money restrictions unless they are at least 25 years of age and have played as a professional in a foreign league recognized by Major League Baseball for a minimum of six seasons. Sasaki falls into that category now, as Ohtani did in 2017. Whichever MLB team signs Sasaki would have him under control for six years of service time before he’d be eligible for unrestricted free agency.

On the contrary, Yoshinobu Yamamoto had already turned 25 years old when he was posted by Orix last offseason, so he was not under any salary restrictions in free agency. He ended up inking a 12-year, $325 million deal with the Dodgers in December, the largest contract for a pitcher in baseball history. His deal came less than a month after Ohtani signed a record 10-year, $700 million contract with Los Angeles as a free agent. The two Japanese stars helped the Dodgers win a World Series championship in 2024.

The chance to team up with his countrymen on the Dodgers, whose global brand is as powerful as ever, could be enticing for Sasaki. Ohtani, Yamamoto and Sasaki played together during the 2023 World Baseball Classic, leading Samurai Japan to a WBC title. However, Sasaki to the Dodgers is not a foregone conclusion. He’ll have plenty of intriguing options once he's posted.

Per the rules of the posting system, the MLB club that signs Sasaki will have to pay a “release fee” to Chiba Lotte. For Major League contracts with a total guaranteed value of $25 million or less, the release fee is 20% of the total guaranteed value of the contract. If no agreement is reached during the 45-day window, Sasaki would return to his NPB club for the 2025 season and would not be eligible for posting again until next offseason.