DUNEDIN, Fla. -- Max Scherzer's right thumb just became one of the most important things in Blue Jays camp.

Scherzer has been dealing with soreness recently, and while he was able to face some Minor League hitters in a simulated game at the Blue Jays’ complex on Monday, the real test will come Tuesday and the next day. Scherzer hasn’t been recovering well, and once again, this issue is flaring up for him right around the 50-pitch mark.

“My thumb hurts. It hurts to grip the ball,” Scherzer said, explaining how he's felt in the days after he throws. “The critical thing I’ve learned over the years here is that your thumb is absolutely critical to your arm health. Unfortunately, this is what I’ve been dealing with since 2023.”

This is the important part. Scherzer has learned over the past two seasons that this thumb issue can lead to far more serious issues. Everything is connected, and one small adjustment to how he’s gripping the ball with his thumb or how he’s releasing pitches can quickly climb up the forearm to the rest of his arm.

“The danger of pitching with this is that you could sustain a shoulder injury,” Scherzer said.

In 2023, it eventually led to a strain of his teres major that landed Scherzer on the IL near the end of the season. He remembered that one well because, while with the Rangers at the time, he was pitching in Toronto against the Blue Jays when it happened.

Scherzer has been trying to get ahead of this, which adds to some of the understandable frustration now that he’s dealing with the problem again. Over the offseason, he worked on grip strength and thumb strength, but now that he’s feeling the pain again at that same 50-pitch mark, he’s realizing that this wasn’t a grip strength issue.

“It hasn’t manifested out into the nerve pain yet, but that’s why I’m working with the hand specialist, the doctors, the trainers," Scherzer said. "How can we move forward and not have this blow up into something worse?”

That’s the most important question in camp right now, and if Scherzer isn’t ready in time for Opening Day -- which is certainly a possibility at this point -- the Blue Jays have some decisions to make.

Next steps for Scherzer

“That’s what we’re trying to figure out,” Scherzer said.

How he feels over the next 48 hours is absolutely crucial. If he bounces back better than before, then it’s possible Scherzer could throw on Saturday or Sunday, either against Minor League hitters or in one of the final Grapefruit League games. That, in a perfect world, could still put him on track to be ready for his first turn through the rotation.

Any further deviation from schedule at this point, though, would make it very difficult for Scherzer to be ready for that first start. Keep March 31 against the Nationals in mind as a target date. That’s when the Blue Jays will first need their No. 5 starter.

Who is next in line?

There’s a reason Toronto has kept Yariel Rodríguez stretched out all camp. He hasn’t been sharp this spring, but he entered as the No. 6 option and could be used in a pinch if the Blue Jays eventually find that this could be a short-term issue for Scherzer.

There’s also Jake Bloss, the club's No. 6 prospect who has looked much sharper in recent spring outings, or Eric Lauer, who is starting on the road Tuesday night against the Orioles. Another option could be Ryan Yarbrough, the rubber-armed lefty who could pair with another reliever in a piggyback setup, though that hardly sounds like Plan A.

For now, Scherzer and the Blue Jays will hope that he wakes up Tuesday feeling better. This has been a relatively healthy spring for the team, but the recurrence of this thumb issue for Scherzer opens up the possibility that Toronto may need to lean on its depth sooner than anyone wanted.