TORONTO -- The bad news just keeps on coming. Ricky Tiedemann, the Blue Jays’ No. 1 prospect and a gifted young left-hander, will undergo full Tommy John surgery on Tuesday.

Tiedemann has battled injuries all season, which is unfortunately nothing new for him. He first hit the IL in late April with ulnar nerve inflammation in his left elbow, and after finally working his way back to Triple-A on July 10, he left his first start after just one inning with some tightness in his left forearm.

After meeting with Dr. Keith Meister and Dr. Neal ElAttrache recently, Tiedemann and the Blue Jays are faced with the worst-case scenario at a crucial moment for this franchise, just days before the MLB Trade Deadline. With the typical recovery time of 12-14 months, Tiedemann is now at risk of missing the entire 2025 season, too. This is another massive blow to the Blue Jays’ farm system, which has also lost Brandon Barriera (No. 4) and Landen Maroudis (No. 13) for the season to elbow surgeries -- two of the other highest-upside arms in the system.

“In years past, we’ve been one of the healthiest, if not the healthiest, organizations up and down,” Toronto manager John Schneider said. “This is something that you try to stay ahead of, but it’s almost impossible to do. You look at everything from strength and conditioning, throwing programs, how much they throw in the offseason. Our process and programs have been steady, but this has been a tough year up and down."

Tiedemann is a perfect example, unfortunately, of this balance and risk. Already capable of touching 98 mph regularly with a vicious breaking ball, Tiedemann arrived in camp this February noticeably bulked up with muscle. He has the talent to make you stop and say “wow” when he’s healthy, owning a 3.02 ERA with 226 strikeouts over 140 innings in the Minor Leagues, but this is another major setback in a long string of injuries.

“Every team is examining that now,” Schneider said. “It has been, for the past couple of years, a big push in velocity, stuff, max effort. You see it all around the industry, even in the offseason, with guys throwing hard. I was talking to [Rangers coach] Dave Bush yesterday ... and he said that Jacob deGrom is throwing 97 mph in his bullpens. He hasn’t even faced hitters yet. He’s a freak, but you look at our Spring Training and how hard guys are throwing early, I think everyone kind of deals with that. There are definitely conversations we have to try to combat it.”

The broader impact for the Blue Jays:

This farm system is getting kicked while its down. Yes, the recent trade of Yimi García to the Mariners and Nate Pearson to the Cubs will help replenish talent, but the Blue Jays desperately need one of their top-end pitching prospects to establish themselves in the big leagues. Tiedemann was their best shot at that, but now, that conversation likely waits until the spring of 2026.

This has a major impact on 2025, too. The Blue Jays have a projected rotation of Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, Jose Berrios and Yariel Rodriguez next season. Tiedemann would have competed for a job out of camp or, at the very least, been a depth arm from Triple-A with the potential to kick the door down at any moment. That option is gone now, leaving the Blue Jays to search for more rotation depth, something that is rarely cheap and scarcely available.

The future for Tiedemann:

The next year for Tiedemann will be rehab, rehab and more rehab. He’ll have plenty of teammates to lean on, given how common Tommy John surgery is across baseball, and will spend plenty of time at the Blue Jays’ player development complex in Florida with the training staff there.

Let’s not close the door entirely to a late-2025 return -- especially given how impressive Tiedemann is, physically -- but the Blue Jays will prepare for this as if he’ll miss all of 2025. By the time Tiedemann returns in 2026, there will be another conversation about workload and how to manage his return to play, so if he’s going to make it work as a starter, we could be talking about the ‘27 season by the time he’s back to “normal” without restrictions.

Tiedemann will stay highly ranked on our Top-30 prospects list due to his incredible talent, but it’s going to be a while until the Blue Jays can dream on his upside again.