This story was excerpted from Keegan Matheson’s Blue Jays Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

TORONTO -- Unless the Blue Jays shock the baseball world, Alek Manoah will walk into Spring Training three months from now as the biggest story in camp.

Manoah’s disastrous 2023 season was a stunner, one that stretched into even more uncomfortable territory later in the season as a divide grew between the ‘22 Cy Young Award finalist and the organization. We still don’t have the full story, but there is more than just a delivery to be repaired.

Toronto’s focus will rest on position players this offseason, and rightfully so. The Blue Jays need to pivot back in the direction of offense, addressing third base, second base and left field -- at a minimum -- but those needs are straightforward and clear. When it comes to Manoah and the No. 5 spot in the rotation, clouds begin to form.

Speaking Tuesday at the GM Meetings in Arizona, general manager Ross Atkins threw some early support behind Manoah in what should be a competition for that final spot.

“I do feel like he has earned, already, the right to have a strong leg up,” Atkins said. “I feel so good about him returning back to the 2021-22 version of himself. That’s a really good starting point for us.”

The top four are set. Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, Jose Berrios and Yusei Kikuchi give the Blue Jays a foundation of starters that most big league clubs would be thrilled to have. This veteran group was so effective in 2023, but just as importantly, they were healthy. All four made at least 31 starts, which just isn’t something you see much in the modern game. When Manoah was optioned the first time, Trevor Richards stepped in as the opener, and by the time Manoah was optioned again, Hyun Jin Ryu’s timely return from Tommy John surgery saved the day. 

It won’t always be so simple. 

In 2022, Ross Stripling saved the Blue Jays from reaching into their rotation depth. Last season, it was Richards and Ryu paired with the rest of the rotation’s impeccable health. It’s unfair to call that good luck, as the pitchers and Toronto’s training staff deserve more credit than they’ve gotten for this group’s durability, but the Blue Jays need to be prepared for a season that doesn’t go as smoothly, one where seven, eight or 10 starters are needed. 

“I’m so excited about Alek,” Atkins said. “I feel so good about him coming into the year, given his body of work, the experiences that he’s had, his motivation and where he is.”

That’s encouraging, and Manoah will be given every chance imaginable to right the ship, but a team dreaming of a World Series run won’t leave itself open to major risks like that. Even though the majority of Toronto’s spending will be on bats, another MLB-quality starter or a swingman would be a sensible addition to protect the Blue Jays from Manoah’s unknowns -- and the likelihood that they need far more rotation depth in 2024 than they have the past two seasons.

The top of the market offers Aaron Nola, Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery and Japanese sensation Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but those are likely well beyond the Blue Jays’ budget for pitching. More realistic targets would be towards the bottom of the market, where names like Nick Martinez and Sean Manaea offer some versatility. You have veterans like Kyle Gibson or upside plays like Tyler Mahle, who the Blue Jays have liked in the past. None of these options are perfect, but that’s why they’re not in the same sentence as Nola and friends. 

Sure, some of this can come internally, but that hasn’t panned out well in recent years. No. 1 prospect Ricky Tiedemann represents the next great hope for the Blue Jays and he should open at Triple-A Buffalo, which is a fine starting point for the organization. Beyond that, expect some more additions like Drew Hutchison and Zach Thompson a year ago, though Toronto will hope the 2024 versions work out better. 

With so much focus on adding offense, the Blue Jays are keeping an eye on protecting their strengths. They were one of baseball’s best fielding teams in 2023 and their pitching, the bullpen included, was excellent. Protecting the floor of that rotation isn’t priority No. 1, but make no mistake, it’s on the list. 

At this point, the definition of a positive outcome for Manoah has changed. If he can stick in the rotation as a No. 5 starter who eats innings and avoids the blowup game, the Blue Jays would be thrilled. That’s still a real potential outcome here for a pitcher who should be one of the most motivated individuals in a big-league camp in February, but Toronto has to be protected against the other end of this spectrum, just in case.