Somebody’s going to have a good year. The otherworldly offensive force whose career year makes him an MVP. The well-prepared pitcher who executes his arsenal en route to a Cy Young. The fresh-faced prospect who propels himself to Rookie of the Year. The sharp skipper who guides a surprise squad to October and becomes Manager of the Year.

And maybe, possibly … me. The person who predicted it all would happen.

As we embark upon 2025, I must fulfill my annual duty of making way-too-early Baseball Writers’ Association of America award picks. It’s tricky to do this in March and even trickier right now, when the Hot Stove dust has not yet settled. But as I like to say, it’s never too early to be wrong. So after going 1-for-8 in this area a year ago (thanks for the save, NL Rookie of the Year Paul Skenes!), let’s see if I can better my batting average in 2025.

Please take note that, because going chalk is boring, you won’t find any repeat winners listed here. (And no, that doesn’t mean I think Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani stink at baseball.) As a matter of fact, to try to get ahead of baseball’s annual element of surprise, I’m veering toward non-obvious picks across the board.

MOST VALUABLE PLAYER

AL: Riley Greene, Tigers

If we’re taking Judge off the table because of my rule about not picking a repeat winner, then my mind goes straight to the young, superstar shortstops: the Royals’ Bobby Witt Jr. and the Orioles’ Gunnar Henderson. Either would be a great pick, but also kind of an obvious one. Then you’ve got the likes of José Ramírez, Corey Seager, Yordan Alvarez, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Rafael Devers, Julio Rodríguez, Carlos Correa, etc. -- i.e., players who have showed clear MVP potential in full seasons or significant spurts.

But I want this to be the kind of column that people turn to in 11 months and say, “Wow, this guy really knows his stuff! And he’s sort of handsome if you squint a little bit and have low standards!” In other words, I want to pick a guy before he really pops.

Greene could be that guy. He’s the best everyday player on a Tigers team on the rise -- a team that got him some more lineup support with the Gleyber Torres signing -- and could still do more between now and Opening Day. He was the fifth overall pick in the 2019 Draft and one of the top prospects in the sport prior to his 2022 debut. His big league career, to date, has been marred in some measure by injury, but he took a huge step forward in 137 games last season, with a 133 OPS+ and a successful shift from center field to left, where he graded out as a major defensive asset.

Here's why Greene might be ready for lift-off: In 2024, his barrel rate jumped into the 90th percentile in MLB, his walk rate rose from 8.4% to 11%, and his chase rate dropped from 26.5% to 23.1%. These are really encouraging trends for a 24-year-old player with pedigree and, hopefully, a stronger offensive supporting cast. I’m taking the long shot in hopes of looking like a genius by year’s end (and if I’m wrong, as expected, we’ll all forget about it, anyway).

NL: Fernando Tatis Jr., Padres

First, a word about Juan Soto. He’s entering his eighth season, and he’s already been my preseason MVP pick like five times. It hasn’t come to fruition yet, but he’s only 26 and seems bound to win one at some point. Doing it in the first year of that mammoth contract with the Mets would make for a great story.

But the $765 million man clearly doesn’t need my support. So let’s venture slightly off the beaten path with a guy who was once viewed, along with Soto and 2023 NL MVP Ronald Acuña Jr., as a burgeoning face of baseball, then fell out of that discussion entirely because of suspension and injury trouble.

Because he’s had so much trouble staying on the field, it’s tough to trust Tatis’ numbers will add up to MVP territory. He had a strong 2024, but also missed more than two months with a stress reaction in his femur and dealt with quadriceps tightness. It’s kind of been one thing after another. So to pick him here is a bet on talent more than track record.

That talent, though. When Tatis returned from his suspension in 2023, he did so in a new position, moving from shortstop to right field, and he’s naturally athletic enough to have accumulated the most outs above average in right field (11) in the two seasons since. Meanwhile, at the plate, since debuting at the tender age of 20, he’s learned to make better swing decisions, leading to a substantial decline in strikeout percentage while maintaining one of the top hard-hit percentages in MLB. Healthy down the stretch in 2024, he slugged .520 in his last 70 regular-season games, then went 11-for-26 with seven extra-base hits in the postseason. He’ll be 26 this season. And he looks ready.

CY YOUNG

AL: Cole Ragans, Royals

Yes, it says here that a frightening lefty from the AL Central will win the Cy Young in consecutive years.

Ragans came to the Royals midway through the 2023 season in a trade that sent Aroldis Chapman to the Rangers, and had immediate success with a transition from relieving back to starting. In 2024, he built on that breakout in a big, sustainable way.

He had a 3.14 ERA in 186 1/3 innings, striking out 29.3% of batters faced thanks to a 32% whiff rate. He added more vertical break to his fastball, and that only heightened the effectiveness of his excellent changeup. He plays in a pitcher’s park, but actually had an even better ERA on the road (2.87) than at home (3.40). He finished fourth in Cy Young voting (with teammate Seth Lugo second to the Tigers’ Tarik Skubal), but I think there’s even more in the tank for the 27-year-old Ragans as he continues to work on lowering his walk rate.

NL: Justin Steele, Cubs

Maybe Zack Wheeler finally gets his Cy Young, or Skenes seizes it in his sophomore year. But because they were both finalists in 2024, let’s dig a little deeper and remind everyone that Steele exists.

You might remember Steele broke out in 2022 (132 ERA+, 3.18 ERA in 24 starts), then finished fifth in NL Cy Young voting in 2023 (139 ERA+, 3.06 ERA in 30 starts). Alas, last year, he injured his hamstring on Opening Day and missed a month, then hit the shelf again in September with elbow tendinitis. Given that he has had Tommy John surgery in the past and had a forearm issue in ’23, I don’t know if he can stay healthy. But then again, I don’t know if any modern pitcher can stay healthy, so what’s the difference?

Given how effective he remained in 2024 when able to take the mound (130 ERA+, 3.07 ERA in 24 starts), Steele could get back in the Cy Young conversation with a healthy 2025. He’s not overpowering enough to wow people in the strikeout department, but he limits hard contact, and therefore runs, and if you believe as I do that the Cubs will have a resurgent season, then it would stand to reason that Steele would be a big part of it.

ROOKIE OF THE YEAR

AL: Jacob Wilson, Athletics

Note that I’m not picking Roki Sasaki to win a Rookie of the Year honor -- not just because I don’t know for sure where he’s going to sign but also because that will be too popular a pick for my tastes, anyway.

Opportunity is everything when it comes to trying to guess who might be Rookie of the Year, and Wilson should have plenty of opportunity to prove himself as the A’s regular shortstop. The sixth overall pick in the loaded 2023 Draft, Wilson has hit his entire baseball life, including at the Double-A and Triple-A levels in 2024, and Sacramento should be a good place to hit in 2025.

Wilson debuted with the A’s in July, but immediately suffered a hamstring issue that cost him a month. Injuries are the big question mark here, though the A’s have had him on an offseason strength program.

NL: Thomas Saggese, Cardinals

Sticking with a theme in this piece and not going with obvious answers, I’ll stray from Nationals outfielder Dylan Crews, who is MLB’s No. 1 overall prospect, even though I do think he’s going to bust loose this year.

It seems the stage is set for Saggese to have a big 2025. He already got his big league debut out of the way in September, then went on to rake in the Arizona Fall League. The Cardinals are obviously trying to move Nolan Arenado in the trade market, and that would open the door to an everyday opportunity for the 22-year-old Saggese, whose bat-to-ball skills should translate and who could man second base if Brendan Donovan shifts over to third.

MANAGER OF THE YEAR

AL: Mark Kotsay, Athletics

Fair warning that I gave the kiss of death to the Reds’ David Bell here a year ago when I picked him on the NL side and he was fired by season’s end. Let’s hope this year’s skipper picks aren’t similarly vexed by my support.

You know the drill. Leaders of surprise squads generally get rewarded come award time. If it were easy to pick the surprise squads, they wouldn’t be surprises, would they? But this is ultimately a narrative award, and what narrative would be more surprisingly satisfying than the A’s launching a playoff bid in their first wilderness year in Sacramento?

Obviously, the A’s are spending money this winter, most notably with their franchise-record pact with starter Luis Severino. That’s been a fun wrinkle to the Hot Stove, though likely not enough to make them a popular playoff pick. The A’s, however, have begun to supplement a really interesting position player core featuring Brent Rooker, JJ Bleday, Lawrence Butler and Wilson. And Kotsay is a strong communicator who weathered a very difficult farewell season in Oakland by guiding the A's to a .500 record in the second half.

NL: Craig Counsell, Cubs

In an NL packed with powerhouses, upsetting the apple cart isn’t easy. But the Central always seems ripe for significant shifts, and a Cubs team that severely disappointed in 2024 could be ripe to rise. While it wouldn’t qualify as a shock if the Cubs greatly improved, especially with Kyle Tucker in tow, they still haven’t done enough, as of this writing, to qualify as favorites to dominate the division. So a Central championship would probably get it done for Counsell, who came to the North Side on an industry-shaking contract and, late in his first season with the Cubs, strongly advocated for the front office to raise the floor.

And here’s the biggest key to the whole story-driven enterprise that the Manager of the Year has become: Counsell has never been Manager of the Year! It’s one of those weird quirks of the BBWAA’s quirkiest award. Counsell has finished second four times -- a managerial Susan Lucci (look her up, kids).

Well, Lucci eventually won one, and “All My Children” think Counsell will do the same.

(Just kidding, my kids don’t like the Cubs.)