Wheeler's final Cy Young argument a compelling one

Right-hander K's 11 over 6 1/3 stellar frames before Phils' loss locks them into No. 2 NL seed

September 29th, 2024

WASHINGTON -- isn’t afraid of a challenge, so this spring he said publicly that he wanted to win the National League Cy Young Award.

He reiterated his goal earlier this month.

Wheeler made his closing argument in Saturday afternoon’s 6-3 loss to the Nationals at Nationals Park. He allowed two runs in 6 1/3 innings, striking out 11 and walking two. He is the first Phillies pitcher since the mound moved to its current distance in 1893 to go six-plus innings and allow two or fewer runs in 11 consecutive starts.

Wheeler finished the season 16-7 with a 2.57 ERA. It is the lowest ERA by a Philadelphia starter since Aaron Nola’s 2.37 ERA in 2018.

“I just told him it’s been a hell of a year [when I removed him from the game in the seventh],” Phillies manager Rob Thomson said. “That’s Cy Young-worthy for me.”

Wheeler had thrown only 90 pitches through six innings, so Thomson didn’t think twice about him starting the seventh.

Wheeler struck out Juan Yepez on seven pitches to get to 200 innings for the second time in his career.

“It’s a goal these days: get 200 innings, 200 strikeouts,” Wheeler said. “Try to get some wins. Try to help the team the best I can. I feel like if I’m doing that, I’m helping the team. You have personal and team goals. The team goal is one goal, and that’s to win the World Series.”

The loss locked the Phillies into the NL’s No. 2 seed in the postseason, meaning they will get home-field advantage in the NL Division Series but are not guaranteed it in the NL Championship Series should they advance. They will play the winner of the No. 3 (Brewers) vs. No. 6 (Braves/Mets/Diamondbacks) Wild Card Series in the NLDS.

Regardless of the opponent, Wheeler will be on the mound for Game 1 on Oct. 5.

“We’d like home-field advantage, but it’s not the end of the world,” Wheeler said. “We’ve still got home-field advantage for a little bit. We’ve just got to get there. We’ll worry about that later.”

Wheeler won’t know if he won the Cy Young until November. The only pitcher who can make a strong case against him is Atlanta’s Chris Sale. Sale leads MLB in wins (18), ERA (2.38), ERA+ (174), FIP (2.08) and fWAR (6.4). He leads the NL in strikeouts (225) and bWAR (6.3). But Sale has not pitched since Sept. 19, when he lasted five innings in Cincinnati. The Braves have not said when exactly he will pitch again, despite fighting for their postseason lives this weekend.

Sale might not be healthy. His four-seam fastball has averaged 94.8 mph, but it dipped below 90 mph in his final two innings against the Reds.

“I did the best I could,” Wheeler said. “Chris had a really good year, also. He’s deserving of it, for sure. It’s pretty cool to see him come back from missing [most of] the past four years or whatever it is. Good for him. I’m happy to see him be back to being Chris Sale.”

Wheeler ranks behind Sale in wins, ERA, FIP (3.13), strikeouts (224) and fWAR (5.5). But he bests Sale in WHIP (.096 to 1.01), opponents’ batting average (.192 to .216), on-base percentage (.253 to .269) and OPS (.581 to .588).

“I didn’t feel as consistent as the numbers probably look,” Wheeler said. “But I got the job done. Yeah, I’m happy with it.”

But in an era where starters are lucky to get through a lineup three times, Wheeler is a throwback. He finished Sunday with more innings pitched than Sale (200 to 177 2/3), more quality starts (26 to 18) and more starts of six or more innings (26 to 19).

Workload might not matter to everybody, but it matters to the Phillies, who awarded Wheeler a three-year, $126 million contract extension in March. It matters to Wheeler, too. He still is chapped that he lost the 2021 NL Cy Young to Milwaukee’s Corbin Burnes, who threw 46 1/3 fewer innings than him.

Maybe the BBWAA’s Cy Young voters will look at how close Sale and Wheeler’s numbers are but see the difference in workload and give Wheeler the nod.

Regardless, Wheeler enters the postseason throwing the ball well. He is 4-3 with a 2.42 ERA in 11 career appearances (10 starts) in the playoffs. It is the fifth-lowest ERA of any MLB pitcher with 10 or more starts in the postseason since earned runs became official in 1913.

“Just try to keep the momentum going,” Wheeler said.