Flurry of moves has Phils feeling confident about '25

December 28th, 2024

This story was excerpted from Todd Zolecki’s Phillies Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

Phillies pitchers and catchers report to Clearwater, Fla., in a little more than six weeks.

After a busy two-plus weeks before the holidays, it would be surprising to see them make further additions before camp opens. Well, significant additions anyway. Earlier this month, the Phils signed right-hander Jordan Romano to a one-year, $8.5 million contract to bulk up the back end of the bullpen. Last week, they signed outfielder Max Kepler to a one-year, $10 million contract to be their everyday left fielder. This week, they got left-hander Jesús Luzardo in a trade with Miami and signed swingman Joe Ross to a one-year, $4 million deal to bolster both the rotation and bullpen.

“We really like our club,” Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said earlier this week. “Now, can it get better? Yes. But if that’s the positional player club we go into Spring Training with, we feel very good about it.”

Of course, opportunities can still present themselves.

A team might call the Phillies with a trade proposal they cannot refuse.

An agent might call the Phillies and say, “Hey, my guy is willing to come to Philly on a one-year deal.”

Then, perhaps, the Phillies will strike.

But just a few days before 2025, we can project the Phillies’ everyday lineup to include Kepler, catcher J.T. Realmuto, first baseman Bryce Harper, second baseman Bryson Stott, third baseman Alec Bohm, shortstop Trea Turner, center fielder Brandon Marsh (with Johan Rojas in the mix), right fielder Nick Castellanos and designated hitter Kyle Schwarber.

“We like our everyday lineup,” Dombrowski said. “We think it’s a good everyday lineup.”

We can project the rotation to be Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suárez, Cristopher Sánchez and Luzardo.

We can project the bullpen to be Romano, Ross, Matt Strahm, José Alvarado, Orion Kerkering, José Ruiz and Tanner Banks. Taijuan Walker and a host of others will compete for the eighth and final job.

So, if there is a move to be made, what might it be?

It would almost certainly be a one-year deal, considering each free-agent signing to this point has been somebody on a one-year deal. FanGraphs projects the Phillies’ 2025 payroll to be $307.6 million for luxury tax purposes, pushing them $6 million beyond the fourth luxury tax threshold at $301 million.

It is projected to be the second-highest payroll in baseball, but it would put them on the hook for $47.5 million in tax penalties.

Payroll has clearly shaped the Phils’ offseason thinking. Romano, Kepler and Luzardo are each coming off injury-plagued 2024 seasons, no doubt making them more realistic acquisitions than players like Juan Soto or Teoscar Hernández or Max Fried. If Romano, Kepler and Luzardo bounce back, those transactions could look like strokes of brilliance. If they don’t, well, the Phillies will need others to step up.

But that’s been the Phils’ plan from the beginning. They entered the offseason needing their core of superstars to get them where they want to go. They went into the winter hoping to complement that cast.

They believe they did.