Who is baseball's best baserunner? Statcast's newest metric tells us
The stolen base has, well, stolen the headlines in MLB over the last two seasons.
The new pitch timer and pickoff limit rules have sparked steals back to a level not seen in a long time. Superstars are running down milestones -- Ronald Acuña Jr. went 40-70 in 2023, and Shohei Ohtani went 50-50 in 2024. Electric phenoms like Bobby Witt Jr., Corbin Carroll and Elly De La Cruz are bursting onto the scene with 40-, 50- and 60-steal seasons.
Baserunning is taking center stage. And now we have a new way to look at who's the best at it.
Statcast now has a complete set of baserunning leaderboards: one for Basestealing, one for Extra Bases Taken and one for overall Baserunning Value.
All three are on Baseball Savant, with data going back to the 2016 season. The Extra Bases Taken leaderboard -- which shows who's the most opportunistic at advancing extra bases on balls in play -- was already available, but the Basestealing and Baserunning Value leaderboards are brand new.
We've never had a Statcast stat to measure basestealing skill. Now we can see who has the right blend of speed, aggressiveness and great jumps to be the best at swiping bags.
The new leaderboard introduces Net Bases Gained. Think of it as a runner's successful stolen bases above average. Every runner is given credit for his advances via steals and balks, and penalized for his outs made via caught stealings and pickoffs, based on the success probability of all those stolen base opportunities. The difference between a player's base advances vs. average and his outs created vs. average is his Net Bases Gained.
We've also never had a complete Statcast baserunning stat that combines stolen bases and extra bases taken into one all-encompassing number. Now we do. Baserunning Run Value measures the total baserunning impact of every player.
Let's dive into who stands out among MLB baserunners. Here are 10 key stats from Statcast's new Basestealing and Baserunning Value leaderboards.
1) Elly De La Cruz was the most aggressive basestealer in 2024
Two baserunners defined the 2024 season: De La Cruz, who led the Majors with 67 steals, and Ohtani, who became the first player in MLB history to go 50-50.
So it's no surprise that those two are also the standouts of the Statcast Basestealing leaderboard. We'll start with De La Cruz.
The Reds star led MLB with +40 Net Bases Gained. That number illustrates how his aggressiveness pays off.
See, De La Cruz led the Major Leagues in both stolen bases and caught stealings. But the positive value of all his steals easily outweighed the negative of him being caught.
De La Cruz's successful advances -- via stolen bases and balks -- were worth +50 bases gained vs. average. His outs made on the bases -- via caught stealings and pickoffs -- were worth -10. The net gain, +40, was good enough to put him atop the leaderboard by a significant margin.
De La Cruz attempted steals at the highest frequency of any qualifying baserunner on Statcast's leaderboard, taking off on 8.7% of his opportunities (pitches thrown when he was on base with no runners in front of him). And it paid off with a ton of bases gained over a typical runner.
2) But Shohei Ohtani was the most valuable basestealer
That said, when it comes to run scoring, the cost of a caught stealing is, in fact, higher than the payoff of one stolen base. Outs are precious things to give away. And a steal doesn't always make the difference between scoring and not scoring a run.
So when you translate Statcast's stolen base metric to a run value, Elly De La Cruz is actually not the most valuable basestealer. Shohei Ohtani is.
That's because Ohtani had a lot fewer outs created on the bases than De La Cruz. He was caught only four times, compared to his 59 successful steals. The negative impact of all of De La Cruz's caught stealings drags him down just below Ohtani when it comes to the run value of his basestealing.
Ohtani wasn't losing big chunks of value for caught stealings like De La Cruz was, while still providing a similar amount of positive value from his own aggressive basestealing. But really, just pick your favorite style of basestealer. Do you want the extra pressure put on opposing defenses by De La Cruz, or the slightly safer but more efficient Ohtani? Both are great.
3) The best all-around baserunner was actually Corbin Carroll
But stolen bases are only half of baserunning. Taking the extra base is the other half. And when you combine the two, the player that stands above all the rest is Carroll.
Carroll excels at both swiping bags and seizing his chances to advance extra bases during a play. Overall in 2024, he had a Baserunning Run Value of +12 for the D-backs, the best in MLB, including a league-best +9 runs created via extra bases taken.
That puts Carroll ahead of both Ohtani (+8 runs created, tied for second) and De La Cruz (+7 runs created, tied for fourth) on the overall Baserunning Run Value leaderboard.
Carroll has top-tier speed -- his 29.6 ft/sec sprint speed in 2024 ranked in the 96th percentile of MLB -- and the way he uses that speed is multifaceted. That's why he's the most all-around impactful baserunner in the Majors.
4) No one topped Billy Hamilton at his peak
The best individual baserunning seasons of the Statcast era -- both in terms of basestealing and overall baserunning value -- belong to Hamilton, the longtime Reds speed specialist.
Hamilton's 2016 and 2017 seasons, during which he totaled 117 stolen bases and 14 triples, are the ones that stand out.
From a Statcast standpoint, Hamilton had +45 Net Bases Gained in 2016, and +41 Net Bases Gained in 2017. Those are the two best individual Statcast basestealing seasons, just ahead of De La Cruz's 2024.
Combine that with Hamilton's value from extra bases taken, which was also exceptional, and he generated an overall Baserunning Run Value of +14 in 2016 -- the best all-around baserunning season under Statcast tracking -- and +11 in 2017, tied for third-best.
The only other baserunner who's been able to compete with prime Billy Hamilton is Carroll, whose 2024 season ranks as the second-most valuable after Hamilton's 2016, and whose sensational 2023 rookie season is tied for third with Hamilton's 2017.
5) But overall, Trea Turner is the Statcast era baserunning MVP
Turner leads the Major Leagues with 277 stolen bases since 2016. He's always been one of the game's fastest players, with a 30.2 ft/sec career sprint speed -- 30 ft/sec or faster is elite speed. And he's a great baserunner who knows when he should use that speed to steal (86% stolen base success rate), turn on the jets for a triple (41 since 2016, third-most) or snatch any other extra base.
The Phillies star leads all players in both basestealing and overall baserunning value for the Statcast era.
- Turner's +153 Net Bases Gained as a basestealer is well ahead of Hamilton's +132 and Starling Marte's +125.
- And Turner's +55 Baserunning Run Value overall easily tops Hamilton (+44) as well as current stars Christian Yelich (+36), José Ramírez (+33) and Mookie Betts (+32), who are next on the leaderboard.
6) Elly is the king of stealing third
You can split the Statcast basestealing leaderboard into steals of second and steals of third, and here's one thing that jumps out if you do: De La Cruz loves to steal third base, and he's the best at it.
Despite third base being the much-less-stolen base in general, compared to second, stealing third accounted for +17 of De La Cruz's +40 Net Bases Gained in 2024.
Those +17 Net Bases Gained via steals of third were easily the best in the Majors.
Ohtani, by contrast, got much more of his basestealing value from swiping second (+27 Net Bases Gained, first in MLB) than by swiping third (+7, tied for ninth). Besides De La Cruz, only two other players, Maikel Garcia (+13) and Victor Robles (+11), had double-digit Net Bases Gained via stealing third.
Nothing can stop De La Cruz putting his elite speed to use (he had a 30.0 ft/sec sprint speed last season) -- he's fearless even in stealing third. No one attempted steals of third at a higher rate (6% of his opportunities), and for him, it's worth the gamble. No one stole third as successfully as De La Cruz did.
7) Anthony Volpe gets great jumps
Stealing bases isn't all about speed, of course. It's also about getting a big jump. Aggressive leads can matter even more than raw speed, and no one personifies that better than Volpe.
Volpe finished with 28 stolen bases in his sophomore season, good for +11 Net Bases Gained via basestealing. And he is fast. But he's not in the same league as a De La Cruz. The Yankees shortstop averaged a 28.6 ft/sec sprint speed in 2024.
The difference-maker for Volpe on his stolen bases is his jumps. On his steal attempts, Volpe covered an average of 15.1 extra feet down the line between his primary lead (his lead distance at the start of the pitcher's delivery) and his secondary lead (his lead distance when the pitcher released the pitch).
That was the largest average lead distance gained of any of the 36 basestealers who had at least +10 Net Bases Gained in 2024.
Largest avg. lead distance gained on SB attempts, 2024
Among basestealers with at least +10 Net Bases Gained
- Anthony Volpe: 15.1 feet
- Zach Neto: 13.2 feet
- Maikel Garcia: 13.1 feet
- Francisco Lindor: 13.0 feet
- Jazz Chisholm Jr.: 12.9 feet
The next-closest player, the Angels' Zach Neto, was nearly two full feet behind Volpe. And Volpe got jumps approaching four feet bigger than the Major League average lead distance gained on steal attempts, 11.5 feet.
Credit that to Volpe's use of the Yankees' "hop-step" stealing technique taught throughout the organization, where a basestealer takes a small jump as he takes off to build momentum toward the next base. That's how Volpe gets such big jumps and generates his basestealing value.
8) Bobby Witt Jr. and De La Cruz rely on their pure speed
On the other end of the spectrum are basestealers like De La Cruz and Witt Jr., who rely heavily on their elite speed to swipe bags and not on big jumps.
De La Cruz had an average lead distance gained of just 8.9 feet on his stolen base attempts last season, the smallest of any player with +10 Net Bases Gained or more. But with his elite 30.0 ft/sec sprint speed, he just outruns the defense.
Least lead distance gained on SB attempts, 2024
Among basestealers with at least +10 Net Bases Gained
- 1-T. Elly De La Cruz: 8.9 feet
- 1-T. Brenton Doyle: 8.9 feet
- 3. Johan Rojas: 9.9 feet
- 4-T. Jacob Young: 10.1 feet
- 4-T. Jake McCarthy: 10.1 feet
- 4-T. Luis Robert Jr.: 10.1 feet
Or look at Witt, the fastest player in baseball in 2024 with an average sprint speed of 30.5 ft/sec. The Royals star had an average lead distance gained of just 9.4 feet on his steal attempts.
And over Witt's three big league seasons, during which he's stolen 110 bases, his average lead distance gained on his steal attempts is only 9.6 feet, two feet below Major League average. But Witt makes his MLB-best sprint speed (30.4 ft/sec for his career) work for him no matter what he's doing -- going for a triple, scoring all the way from first or stealing a base.
9) Lane Thomas showed how you can be overaggressive
It is possible to be too aggressive stealing bases. Thomas last season was a good example.
Thomas posted a positive Net Bases Gained for the Nationals and Guardians at +6. But he had a negative Basestealing Run Value at -2. Of the 72 MLB players in 2024 with at least +5 Net Bases Gained in 2024, Thomas was the only one with a negative overall value as a basestealer. How does that happen?
He ran into way too many outs. And again, when it comes to run-scoring, making an out on the bases is much costlier than advancing one base is beneficial.
Thomas had +18 bases gained above average. But he also had -11 outs made vs. average. So even though the net bases gained was positive, the big negative run value of all those outs dragged down Thomas' overall value as a basestealer.
There have been other baserunners like that in the Statcast era:
- José Reyes, 2017: +6 Net Bases Gained, -1 Basestealing Run Value
- Yasiel Puig, 2019: +5 Net Bases Gained, -1 Basestealing Run Value
- Ji Hwan Bae, 2023: +5 Net Bases Gained, -1 Basestealing Run Value
- Amed Rosario, 2018: +5 Net Bases Gained, -1 Basestealing Run Value
In each of their respective seasons, they were the only players with at least +5 Net Bases Gained but a negative overall value as a basestealer. They all took bases aggressively, but made too many outs to justify their aggressiveness.
10) But Victor Robles and Pete Crow-Armstrong show how you can be aggressive and efficient
On the other side are baserunners like Robles and Crow-Armstrong, who steal a lot and steal at extremely high success rates, giving them high positive basestealing value without the big negatives of outs made on the bases.
Robles ranked fourth on the Statcast basestealing leaderboard with +26 Net Bases Gained last season. But the reason he stands out is that he was a net positive both in his bases gained vs. average (+24) and his outs created vs. average (+2). That means Robles both stole bases aggressively -- he ran on 5.1% of his opportunities, a top-10 mark among MLB baserunners -- and didn't run into outs. That combination is rare for a player who runs so often.
Crow-Armstrong is the same way. An elite speedster (30.0 ft/sec sprint speed in 2024), the Cubs center fielder ranked seventh in MLB with +22 Net Bases Gained as a basestealer in his rookie season.
Crow-Armstrong ran even more often than Robles -- his 7.8% stolen base attempt percentage was fourth-highest behind De La Cruz, Dairon Blanco and David Hamilton -- and he did it without being a negative in outs made. He knows he has the speed to be safe, so he can be aggressive without costing his team.
That's why both he and Robles were top-10 in the Majors in Basestealing Run Value. Robles ranked tied for second with +6 runs created and Crow-Armstrong was tied for seventh with +4 runs created. Those are the type of baserunners you want on your team.