Where will Cardinals land with roster shakeup?

December 26th, 2024

This story was excerpted from John Denton's Cardinals Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

Asked at MLB’s Winter Meetings earlier this month about how he can efficiently use his time in the offseason to plan for 2025 without knowing which veteran players he will have at his disposal, Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol answered about as pragmatically and diplomatically as possible.

“You just continue to operate, honestly, like they are going to be a part of the team until they’re not,” Marmol said when carefully addressing the trade speculation surrounding 10-time Gold Glover Nolan Arenado, NL Reliever of the Year Ryan Helsley and others. “Those guys are doing a really good job of handling that. Speaking to Nolan, he’s in a good spot, he’s doing what he does best and he’s working hard to make sure he has a good season.

“So you just continue to operate that way. But the offseason has been awesome. There’s a lot of buy-in right now as to the direction we’re headed.”

The direction the Cards are headed isn’t exactly known -- not even by Marmol peering through his Cardinal-red glasses -- because of the uncertainty surrounding the roster. The burning questions of the offseason revolve around determining which vets will be with the club in 2025 and which ones will be moved in trades.

Sonny Gray, who signed with the Redbirds in November 2023 in hopes of contending throughout the length of his three-year, $75 million contract, flexed the no-trade clause in his contract and will be back. So, too, will Willson Contreras, who was willing to move from catcher to first base in hopes he can be healthier. Others at the top of the team’s payroll could be elsewhere any day now.

Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak made clear his intention to trade Arenado. Mozeliak knows successful rebuilds/resets often do not include half-measures, so he is determined to deal Arenado and the $74 million he is still owed to try to clean up the finances and open playing opportunities for Nolan Gorman, Thomas Saggese and Brendan Donovan. Keeping the 33-year-old Arenado -- who has seen his power production fall dramatically over the past two seasons -- would likely hamper what Mozeliak calls a “reset” for 2025.

As for Helsley, swingman Steven Matz and veteran starting pitchers Miles Mikolas and Erick Fedde, the Cardinals’ trade plans are a bit murkier. Hence, Marmol having to tap dance around the subject of their availability for the season ahead.

Helsley, 30, earned a franchise-record 49 saves in 2024, and any team with him would be better off with his 100 mph fastball. However, he can become a free agent after the 2025 season, and another All-Star campaign could help him command a $100 million contract, just as Edwin Díaz and Josh Hader did in recent offseasons.

Helsley’s trade value, which likely will never be higher than it is now, took a bit of a hit when the Yankees dealt for Devin Williams and the Phillies signed free-agent closer Jordan Romano. Helsley, the longest-tenured player on the Cardinals, could be back in St. Louis for 2025, or the Cards could simply be waiting for a trade partner to sweeten its offer.

As for Mikolas, Matz and Fedde, not one particularly fits into the future of a starting rotation of Gray, Andre Pallante, Michael McGreevy and potentially Gordon Graceffo or Matthew Liberatore. The Guardians have shown a keen interest in trading for Fedde or Matz, per sources, and the Cards would be open to those deals. Also, don’t rule out Kyle Gibson, who had his $11 million option declined in October but could be a return candidate because of his ties to the area and his excellent work mentoring younger pitchers last season.

The Cardinals’ ability to move Mikolas or Matz -- who are owed $17.6 million and $12.5 million, respectively, per Spotrac.com -- could come down to how much salary they are willing to swallow. Carrying dead money is something the cost-conscious Cardinals hate doing, so stay tuned on those potential deals.

Mozeliak said if the Cardinals can’t trade some of their highest-paid players, they might have to be creative to open opportunities for their young core. That, after all, is the top priority for 2025.

“I’m still defining [the goal for 2025] as winning baseball,” Mozeliak said. “When you look at some of the players that we had last year, they didn’t take steps forward. They were almost, like, stuck in neutral.

“I’m really excited about this group of having an offseason strategy, being intentional about how they train and practice and then putting that into work. Just imagine Jordan Walker punishing baseballs and doing it consistently. I think that will get people excited.”