Inbox: Prospects who could end up among Top 100 after AFL
I'm going through Arizona Fall League withdrawal now that I'm back home, but at least I can live-stream almost all of the action. Let's dive into some AFL questions in the latest Pipeline Inbox...
"Which prospects in the AFL that are not on the Top 100 Prospects list have the best chance to be on the list due to their performance in the AFL?" -- @StevieDAles97 on X
We won't update the Top 100 again until we unveil an entirely new list in January, and the Fall League is such a hitter-friendly environment and relatively small 30-game sample size that performance there won't really move the needle much. But looking at this question from the standpoint of which players have looked good early and could become Top 100 Prospects at some point in the future, I immediately thought of Dodgers outfielder Zyhir Hope and Tigers catcher Thayron Liranzo. Both were acquired in trades this year.
More from MLB Pipeline:
• Top 100 prospects | Stats | Video | Podcast | Complete coverage
Part of the Michael Busch/Yency Almonte deal with the Cubs in January, Hope may have the best all-around tools in the Fall League with plus raw power, double-plus speed and well above-average arm strength. He hit the most impressive home run (470 feet) and made the best defensive play (crashing into the center-field fence to snare a line drive and deny an extra-base hit) that I saw during the first week of the season.
The top prospect in the trade that sent Jack Flaherty to the Dodgers in July, Liranzo is an offensive-minded catcher with power from both sides of the plate and the patience to draw walks. He also features plus arm strength but still needs to polish his defense.
Braves catcher Drake Baldwin, Diamondbacks left-hander Yu-Min Lin and Brewers third baseman Brock Wilken are three more potential Top 100 Prospects. Also keep an eye on outfielders Kemp Alderman (Marlins) and Denzel Clarke (Athletics) and right-hander Grant Taylor (White Sox).
"When this time of year rolls around, it’s a blast to hear you talk about how much you love the AFL. Do you have a favorite story or moment you’d want to share on the inbox?" -- @Blahbla92342524
I have seen so many cool things in the Fall League, and the first one that leapt to mind was Pete Alonso's monstrous homer to center field off a 103-mph fastball from Nate Pearson in the 2018 Fall Stars Game. Alonso tied for the AFL home run lead that fall and was a delight to cover the entire season.
The earliest Fall League memory that really sticks with me is watching Max Scherzer reach 98 mph while dominating in short relief appearances in 2007, when 98 was far less common than it is today. I saw the fastest pitch I've ever seen when Ray Black clocked 105 mph in 2015.
I watched Braxton Davidson hit a walk-off home run to win the 2018 AFL championship game, then break his foot while rounding the bases. I remember Kris Bryant (2013) and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (2018) dominating to the extent that they looked immediately ready for the big leagues. I saw Josh Hader (2015) foreshadow the elite closer he would become, while star-crossed Forrest Whitley (2018-19) was the most consistently impressive pitcher I've seen in the Fall League.
"Who is a prospect who you think will be moved this offseason and will make an impact in the MLB next year (i.e. Joey Ortiz, Michael Busch last offseason)?" -- @88OriolesFan88
Two teams that should be looking to make offseason moves after disappointing seasons (for differing reasons) are the Orioles and Cubs. Both teams have more advanced young position players than they have openings in their lineup, further increasing their motivation to deal.
Baltimore still is figuring out how to get at-bats for Jackson Holliday and Heston Kjerstad after they graduated to the Majors this year, and third baseman/first baseman Coby Mayo (No. 8 on the Top 100) and catcher/first baseman Samuel Basallo (No. 13) are nearly ready as well. Mayo and Basallo both look more likely to wind up at first base than their best-case positions, so they could be fodder in trades for pitching.
Chicago has all four of its starting infielders and all three of its starting outfielders from this season under control for at least two more years, plus Cody Bellinger (who bounced between first base, all three outfield spots and DH) can return on a player option. The Cubs also have five position prospects on the Top 100 who finished the year in Triple-A or the big leagues: infielder Matt Shaw (No. 22), outfielders Owen Caissie (No. 34) and Kevin Alcántara (No. 67), catcher/first baseman Moises Ballesteros (No. 44) and second baseman/outfielder James Triantos (No. 55). Triantos, who's more outfielder than infielder in the long run, and Alcántara will have the most difficult time cracking Chicago's lineup of the present or future and could be expendable.
The Phillies are all in and president of baseball operations David Dombrowski never is afraid to move prospects for veterans. So I wouldn't be shocked if he swapped slick-fielding shortstop Starlyn Caba, who's No. 81 on the Top 100 but at least three years away from the Majors, for more immediate help.
"Would love to hear a conversation about how much the defense and arm grades play into ranking Top 100 and Top 30. How much would guys like Laz Montes or Moises Ballesteros move up if they were elite defenders or how much is it holding them back from being top 20?" -- @bnb_Wes
Defense does play a large part in our rankings. Arm strength is a factor, but what matters more is the most demanding position that a prospect can handle and how well he can play there. For instance, we give Carson Williams (Rays) and Ryan Clifford (Mets) the same hitting (45) and power (60) grades on the 20-80 scouting scale, but Williams is a significantly better prospect because he's a skilled shortstop while Clifford is a first baseman/corner outfielder.
Montes' limited speed and range on the outfield corners could eventually land him at first base or DH, though the Mariners slugger's massive power should allow him to fit the offensive profile at any position. He's currently at No. 47 on the Top 100, while Caissie has similar upside at the plate but gets the edge as an athlete and defender and ranks No. 34.
Ballesteros may be the biggest defensive conundrum on the Top 100. He's one of the more gifted hitters on the list, he should have average power and maybe more, and he handled Triple-A at age 20. If he were a slam-dunk catcher, he'd probably fit among the top 20 prospects in the game. But there are questions about his ability to stay behind the plate, and his only other alternatives are a 5-foot-8 first baseman or as a DH, so that's why he sits at No. 44.