A fanatic’s guide to the Cardinals’ roster
For the first time in recent team history, the Cardinals, by their own account, are all-in for 2019.
Team president John Mozeliak said after the team traded for Paul Goldschmidt, that “we realize the importance of 2019 … we’re trying to win now.” This is highly unusual in Cardinals land; this is a franchise that never rebuilds or retools, one that is trying to win every season while still planning for the future. The idea that the Cardinals would put so much weight on one season -- with free agents-to-be Goldschmidt and Marcell Ozuna as the most pivotal hitters in the middle of their lineup -- is out of character, and speaks to the Cards’ urgency heading into this particular year.
After all, the Cardinals have missed the postseason for three consecutive years, which might not seem that long to some baseball fans, but is nearly unprecedented in St. Louis. If the Cards miss the postseason this year, it will be their longest drought since 1988-95, before manager Tony La Russa arrived and ushered in nearly 25 years of consistent success. St. Louis fans are as loyal as any in the sport -- as anyone who tried to get a ticket to watch their team play the Cardinals this Spring Training can tell you -- but their patience is nearing its nadir. With the ascendance of the Cubs and now the Brewers in the National League Central, the Cardinals need to win now.
Thus, for the fourth consecutive year, it is time for my Cardinals Roster Audit, a look at every relevant St. Louis player heading into the 2019 season. In one week, we'll get our first look at what this Cardinals team is. For now, here's my best guess. (Also, if you want more Cards business, I host a weekly podcast called "Seeing Red," with legendary St. Louis sports columnist Bernie Miklasz. You can subscribe to it here.)
ROTATION
Jack Flaherty
Flaherty is not the Opening Day starter, and he did fade a little bit down the stretch, but all told: If things go how the Cardinals want them to and the way they very well might, he’s your Game 1 NL Division Series starter, no? He doesn’t have the consistency that Miles Mikolas has or the cat-playing-with-a-mouse swagger of a peak Carlos Martinez, but he’s big and strong and totally in control. He has the stubbornness and swagger of a Chris Carpenter; it’s not a surprise that both Carpenter and Bob Gibson have taken to the kid.
Miles Mikolas
Remember when the Cardinals were being made fun of for bringing in Mikolas rather than Yu Darvish? Mikolas wasn’t just good, he was fantastic, and he was also a perfect fit for this particular team, as evidenced by his extension last month that looks like an ideal match between player and club. Mikolas might not have the ceiling of a Flaherty or a Dakota Hudson, but he’s closer than anyone thought when the Cardinals signed him. No one will ever call him Lizard King again.
Michael Wacha
With Wacha almost certain to leave in the offseason, it’s worth remembering that his place in Cardinals lore is already secure. He was so good in the 2013 postseason that he essentially altered the Cards' business plan with pitchers: Flaherty, Hudson, Daniel Ponce de Leon, even Martinez, they all did the get-‘em-up-late-in-the-season and see what they’ve got before transitioning them to the rotation. And as great as Carpenter and Adam Wainwright and all the Cardinals pitchers have been, I’m not sure I’ve ever seen anyone more purely dominant than Wacha was that October. The Cards don’t necessarily need that dominance this season -- they’ll take a vintage Jeff Suppan year -- but he’s still capable of it: Wacha nearly threw a no-hitter last year and was maybe the Cards’ best pitcher over the first half.
Adam Wainwight
Wainwright himself said he thought about retirement last year -- he even assumed it was coming at the end of the season -- and why wouldn’t he? There were times in 2018 when it was actively painful to watch Wainwright pitch. His comeback in September felt more obligatory than particularly smart; you wanted to honor him, but not if he was going to get knocked around in a pennant chase. Thus, how pleasant it was when he was vintage Wainwright down the stretch, including a heroic Sunday night performance against the Dodgers that nearly saved the season. He’s back on an extremely cheap, incentive-laden contract, and ideally, you’d like him to pitch, at a minimum, well enough for a Cardinals legend to not be embarrassed.
Unfortunately, with the Martinez injury, he’s essentially being counted on for the rotation through April and maybe May, and that’s not the position anyone wanted him to be in. The goal is the standing ovation in September and league-average pitching before then.
John Gant
Currently the path of least resistance for that fifth-starter position -- Gant was as solid and predictable as anyone down the stretch last year, and he’s out of Minor League options -- he appears to be the steady, predictable choice who will have every opportunity to both pitch himself in or out of the regular rotation.
Dakota Hudson
Hudson could end up in the bullpen, but that doesn’t look like the plan, and it probably shouldn’t be: Having him be the de facto sixth starter ready to come up from Triple-A Memphis if Gant or Wainwright falter (or one of the other three guys get hurt) makes a lot of sense. Hudson will be 25 in September -- he’s actually only a year younger than Gant -- so you don’t have to baby him that much. If Hudson is healthy, he seems a logical fit for the rotation come September … and for a few years to come. Ideally, he’s the next Wacha. That’s a big ask, but he could pull it off.
BULLPEN
We don't have to give a full paragraph to every guy. But five pitchers stand out.
John Brebbia
Brebbia is a great story, a former Independent League guy who fought his way back to the Majors and caught on, but now he’s one of only three Cardinals relievers anybody trusts. He has been terrific for two full seasons in St. Louis now, and while his walk rate ticked up a notch in 2018, his strikeout rate went up, too. Of all the heralded relievers, including "Mr. 105 mph" Jordan Hicks, it was Brebbia who had the highest K/9 ratio. Plus, you have to love a guy who shaves before Spring Training and then doesn’t again until the season is over. It leads to some wild visuals.
Jordan Hicks
The guy throws harder than anyone in the sport, but the real wrinkle has come this spring: Hicks has a wipeout slider now. He had been working on the pitch last season, but it has emerged this Spring Training, which makes sense; he is, after all, 22 years old, and is learning to control his repertoire in real time. If anything, it’s the slider that’s the strikeout pitch, which is handy when, otherwise, you throw 105 mph. The Cardinals aren’t naming him the closer, but when push comes to shove, this is the guy you want on the mound. Who wouldn’t?
Carlos Martinez
There’s still a chance Martinez gets in the rotation, but right now, he is trending toward the 'pen. As much of a bummer as it is to lose those innings from him, it is exciting to imagine him as part of a Hicks/Andrew Miller/Martinez shutdown trio come October.
Andrew Miller
The Cardinals' big free-agent signing had the worst season of his career as a reliever last year, thanks to a number of injury issues, but Miller has been golden this spring. He hasn’t yet started throwing multiple innings, and they might not push him on that until May or so, but if he’s back to 2014-16 Miller, he might solve the Cardinals’ bullpen issues all by himself.
Alex Reyes
He’s here for now, but his strong spring seems to be pushing him toward the rotation. We'll see about that: We’ve all spent two years prepping for Reyes’ big year, and we’ve all gotten just four innings out of it. The stuff is overwhelming, but he still has never really let loose as a Cardinal. If there are any setbacks this season, he may be pushed to the 'pen, depending on what the Cards need. But eventually, you’ve gotta just see what the guy can do.
A brief ranking of the rest of the bullpen, which is riddled with uncertainty:
1) Dominic Leone.
He appears healthy, and if he is, he can finally be the pitcher the Cardinals thought they were trading for.
2) Chasen Shreve
The likely LOOGY at this point. Though every homer Luke Voit hits makes him look a little worse.
3) Mike Mayers
The fastball plays but isn’t consistent; probably just the long man at this point.
4) Luke Gregerson
Cardinals fans will believe he is healthy when they see it.
5) Genesis Cabrera.
Could be the September lefty bullpen flamethrower if he keeps progressing.
6) Tyler Webb
Ahead of Brett Cecil at this point, which isn’t the greatest achievement.
7) Brett Cecil
Starting to look like the Cardinals’ worst free-agent signing in years. Lost a lot of weight in the offseason, but that seems to have just thrown him off even more.
Other potential starters/bullpen arms
Austin Gomber (who may have cost himself a rotation spot this spring), Ponce de Leon, Ryan Helsley, Jake Woodford
CATCHERS
Yadier Molina
The batting average and on-base percentage has been down the last couple of seasons, but the power is up; Molina will enter the top 10 in Cardinals history in homers by the All-Star break. But the offense is of course just the bonus for Yadi, who remains the heart and soul of everything the Cardinals do for the 16th consecutive season. He sustained one of the most gruesome injuries in baseball last season, and he was back earlier than anyone could have expected and was of course as great as always. They say he’ll take more days off this season. Yeah, right.
Matt Wieters
Wieters immediately becomes the best backup to Molina the Cardinals have ever had, which is … not that impressive of a title. His bat has tailed off a ton the last two seasons, but it’s still better than anyone else the Cardinals would put back there, and he at least has enough of a reputation to maybe convince Yadi to take one extra day off per fortnight. Wieters was making All-Star teams just three years ago.
Andrew Knizner
A strong 2018 pushed him past Carson Kelly on the depth chart, but Molina is another matter. Knizner is young enough that he could take over for Molina in two years … but assuming Molina is really retiring when his contract is up is quite the assumption.
INFIELDERS
Paul Goldschmidt, 1B
You know how great Goldschmidt is, so let’s not belabor the real issue here: Can the Cardinals sign him? Would five years, $30 million per year do it? Would the Cards go there? Would he sign that before hitting the open market? The Cardinals are counting on him falling in love with St. Louis and re-upping before the season is over. That works sometimes, but it’s a risk. He’s one of the best players in baseball and the superstar the Cardinals have been looking for since Albert Pujols left. It is very much in the Cards’ best interest to get it done, and soon. Until then -- enjoy the ride.
Kolten Wong, 2B
All Wong ever asked for was to be put in the lineup and left alone. After years of being shifted around to and fro by the previous manager, Wong was finally installed as the everyday second baseman and responded with the best year of his career, despite a right elbow injury. Wong may never be the .300 hitter he was projected to be as a prospect, but he still hits for enough contact, and walks enough, and has the occasional homer, to supplement his otherworldly defense. Wong is maybe not the All-Star the Cardinals were hoping for. He is, however, as essential, and perhaps irreplaceable, as anyone on the roster. And there’s still plenty of upside in that bat: He is still only 28 after all.
Paul DeJong, SS
At first, DeJong looked like a free-swinging power hitter prone to long slumps and then tape-measure homers: An infielder version of Randal Grichuk. But DeJong appears to be self-aware, and learning: The walk rate went up (though there’s still plenty of room to grow), the strikeout rate went down, and the power mostly stayed. Plus, he plays a much better shortstop than anyone thought he would, and he’s still improving. If he can stay healthy, the Cardinals might have an All-Star on their hands. And he better, because behind him, shortstop is a black hole.
Matt Carpenter, 3B
Carpenter was terrible for the first and last months of 2018, and the best hitter in baseball in between. The Cardinals just need him to be his on-base monster self -- the power is a happy bonus, but not entirely the point of what Carpenter can do -- with all those big bats behind him. As a general rule, when Carpenter is awesome, the Cardinals win, and when he isn’t, they don’t. And his third-base defense is a little better than it looks. And with Goldschmidt now ensconced at first, it better be.
Jedd Gyorko, 2B/3B
Jedd is perpetually underappreciated, a guy who can play anywhere, goes through hot streaks where he hits everything and always fights for every inch he gets. He’s also a little pricey to be one of those guys without a regular lineup spot, which he absolutely does not have right now; he’s even a little redundant with Yairo Munoz around.
Yairo Munoz, INF
His walk-off homer against the Pirates early in the year was one of the season’s highlights, and in many ways, he’s a bit of a Gyorko clone: Adequate everywhere, with sneaky power and a nice OBP for a bench bat. The difference is that he’s considerably cheaper, which is why we’re talking about Gyorko maybe being traded instead of him.
OUTFIELDERS
Marcell Ozuna, LF
Ozuna had an injury-plagued 2018, and a somewhat contentious one: The Cardinals and Ozuna were not constantly on the same page on his rehab, an issue that extended into this Spring Training. But the team is now satisfied with how everything is going, and even though he hasn’t hit well in spring, he hit the ball hard last season, with injury woes that are worse than what he is dealing with now. He wasn’t quite the difference-maker the Cardinals wanted when they traded for him, but now he has Goldschmidt hitting in front of him. If his luck and health turn around, he could have an insane RBI year. Considering Ozuna is a free agent after the year and the Cardinals appear to be turning their attention to re-signing Goldschmidt, this would be an excellent time for him to let it rip.
Harrison Bader, CF
Bader has complained that if they’d had the technology in Minor League stadiums that they have in the Majors, we would have all known long ago what we do now: This is one of the fastest players in baseball, and a defensive savant. Bader is already an all-time fan favorite -- he makes things happen on the basepaths that no other Cardinal has done in many a moon -- and he makes up for all sorts of deficiencies in the outfield corners.
The bat is a little less steady; he has flashes of power but still has on-base issues. He may ideally be a ninth-place hitter ahead of Carpenter and the rest of the lineup. The only way he loses his center-field job is if he regresses at the plate and the other outfielders do as well, necessitating a need for a lineup boost. But if this team hits like it should, they won’t care how much Bader hits: He’ll be too busy catching everything in sight.
Dexter Fowler, RF
Fowler had such a nightmare 2018 that it almost didn’t seem real: Struggling is one thing, but a .180 batting average? It’s not just his contract that keeps him in the lineup, even though there are still three years left to go; he’s beloved by his teammates, and the team is truly its best self if Fowler is getting on base and causing trouble. The Cardinals are giving him every opportunity -- including batting him second, between Carpenter and Goldschmidt -- to succeed, and manager Mike Shildt has a good relationship with Fowler. But, this being the all-in year and all, patience will be shorter this season. If Fowler can even be his 2017 self, the Cardinals might win 100 games; if he can’t, he might lose his job by May.
Jose Martinez, OF
The Cardinals sort of extended his contract after an offseason when everyone assumed he’d be traded, and now he’s a designated hitter in a league that doesn’t have one. Still: Boy, can he hit. He’s a potential outfield fixture if Fowler or Ozuna struggle, though that’s not ideal, since Martinez's defense in the outfield is shaky. No matter what, he’s a monster with the bat, the most consistent hitter the Cardinals had last year, and he is almost certainly the most popular non-Yadi player in the clubhouse. He might only get 350 at-bats, but he will make them count.
Tyler O’Neill, OF
"BroNeill" right now is a little Randal Grichuk-y: Massive power, but with huge exploitable holes in his swing. But he and new hitting coach Jeff Albert are specifically working on that, and if O'Neill can make more contact, he could be a monster. It helps that he’s the team’s second-best defensive outfielder, and probably the only guy you can trust to play center other than Bader. If Fowler falters, O’Neill will get every opportunity to be the bodybuilding-ripped stud in right field. He and Bader are an amusing visual match, that’s for sure.
MANAGER
Mike Shildt
Shildt is an unassuming baseball lifer -- he never played in the Majors, and he looks like your friendly biology teacher -- whom initially inspired the Cardinals and their fans. The team responded to his forthrightness and his organization, and by all accounts, this has been the most productive spring since the La Russa days. He’s strategically inventive, and when he says he’s OK with not having a set closer, you actually believe him. But the era of good feeling is over: He and the Cardinals have to win, right now. Everything is set up for this team to thrive in 2019, and end the postseason drought. They have all they need to do it. So now, they better.