Answering your Top 100 Prospects list questions
MLB Pipeline's Jonathan Mayo answers fans' prospect questions in Reddit AMA
MLB Pipeline released its new Top 100 Prospects list on Friday, and it was met with a bevy of questions and comments about fans' favorite prospects.
To help make sense of all the inquiries, Pipeline's Jonathan Mayo took to Reddit and responded to fan questions in a Top 100 Prospect-focused AMA.
Here are some of the best questions and answers from Monday's discussion.
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Some questions and answers have been edited for clarity.
Q: How do you distinguish between a prospect taking a massive leap and a prospect just having a good season? For every Kristian Campbell, I imagine there’s a number of guys with a .900 OPS who didn’t boost their stock too much. Would love to hear how you guys determine if a prospect’s improvements will stick or are just smoke and mirrors.
Mayo: There is a very fine line (and often blurry) between guys who are just performing well and guys who are really clicking, and are thus worthy of jumping up rankings. Obviously, Campbell is an outlier in just how far, and how quickly, it happened. It's not just because he had a high OPS. It's that he did it across three levels, at such a young age, combined with the reports we were getting on how he was doing it. He always had really good contact skills and when we got reports of how the Red Sox worked with him on his bat speed, strength and bat path, we knew this wasn't just a guy having a good year. The proverbial light went on and he kept getting better as he moved up the ladder.
Q: Which prospects out of the 100 list that did not have a good 2024, you really like and think it can have a successful MLB career?
Mayo: I'm still bullish on Druw Jones. It's not like he had a truly bad year in 2024, with a .275/.409/.405 line in what was really his first full season. He played just 41 games in 2023, and none after signing in 2022 after being the No. 2 overall pick, so I think we have to give Andruw's kid a little slack here. There's still a lot of work to be done on his offensive impact and his swing decisions, but he'll be only 21 for all of the 2025 season. I think this is a big year for him and I expect a big step forward, assuming he can stay healthy.
Mayo: Oooh, The Mayo Bias ... I should look into trademarking that, great idea. And yes, there would be a lot of strife at home if we didn't rank him high enough. We did have him up at No. 8 at the end of 2024, and him being at 14 was more about guys who we felt, after getting feedback from the industry (team execs), belonged ahead of him. The power is definitely legit and he's going to hit, but most think he's going to be a first baseman (despite that easily plus arm), so it's a bit of a more limited profile as a R-R first baseman, though we think he's going to hit enough for that spot.
Q: Was wondering if there were any Nationals you could potentially see jumping into the Top 100 as the season goes on? Some who might fit what you're looking for to make the list but needs to have a solid start in 2025 to justify it.
Mayo: Quick shout out to Sam Dykstra, who does our Nats' Top 30, but I'll take a stab at this. I'll pick LHP Alex Clemmey, who the Nats got from the Guardians. The stuff is very good, he just needs to improve the command piece. He's 6-foot-6 and only 19 so he has time to figure it out. We put him at the end of our Top 10 LHP prospects for a reason. If he starts finding the zone, he has Top 100 pure stuff for sure.
Q: Do Zyhir Hope and Josue De Paula have No. 1 prospect upside?
Mayo: In a word: Yes. Hope has such exciting tools, with an idea of what he's doing at the plate. Boy, was he exciting in the AFL showing off what he could do in all areas of the game. His five-tool potential could easily land him at the top. And De Paula has the chance to be the kind of offensive performer in the outfield where it's easy to dream on him being in the Roman Anthony, Dylan Crews, Walker Jenkins, Max Clark neck of the Top 100.
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Q: Best guess on one of the prospects listed in 2026, 2027, or 2028 ETA that could make their way to the big leagues this year?
Mayo: I'll cherry-pick from the top -- Walker Jenkins could very easily take off with a healthy season and end up in Minnesota later this year. Then there are the 2024 first-round-picks at 1B -- both Jac Caglianone and Nick Kurtz could find their way to the Royals and A's in less than a full season of pro ball. In terms of 2027s... maybe I could see Kevin McGonigle's hit tool putting him on a fast track with the Tigers or maybe things really clicking for someone super-toolsy like Hope of the Dodgers (less likely). As for 2028... nope, won't go that far.
Q: What do you think the outlook is for Matt Shaw, can he be a legit 3B or is this a temporary option and he will need to be a 2B long term?
Mayo: Clearly, the Cubs think he has a chance to play third, but the jury is still out. If you watched our Top 100 show, the consensus on there was that he's better suited for second, mostly because of his arm. But he's athletic, quick and has fast hands, so I think he'll be good enough to play there for the time being. He's got such a high baseball IQ and work ethic, that he's going to put in the time to be solid enough at the big league level. With Nico Hoerner at 2B, it's Shaw's ticket to the big leagues and the offseason trade of Isaac Paredes to get Kyle Tucker made it clear to most of us that the Cubs want to give Shaw every opportunity at the hot corner.
Q: Could you talk about how you approach ranking someone like Jesus Made, who can back up his great results with plate discipline and contact quality far beyond his age and seemingly has every tool needed, but has only done it against DSL opposition so far. If he repeats it in A-ball this year, will he be the #1 prospect in baseball?
Mayo: Is this Sam Dykstra's burner account? He LOVES Made. And there's a lot to like. Yes, you don't want to put too much stock into a DSL performance because that rookie circuit is always hitter-friendly. You mention some of the underlying stuff that makes him stand out already and when you combine that with the fact the Brewers love what they've seen so far and it's talked about that Made has a better approach than Jackson Chourio did during his debut, and we all saw how that turned out. So yes, if Made does what we think he'll do in full-season ball, I could see him at, or near the top of the list in a year or two.
Q: What do you make of Harry Ford at this point? He hasn't really moved up in a lot of the prospect rankings that have come out recently.
Mayo: Sir Harry Ford is becoming a bit of an enigma, isn't he? Interesting that he started to see some time in the outfield last year as I think he has work to do on his receiving (which he is VERY committed to doing) and Cal Raleigh is in the big leagues. There are offensive traits to still love, which is why he still ranks high, but he hasn't put up the numbers to match them .... yet. Remember, he's been very young for the level, while handling catching chores. I think he could break out this year.
Q: Why is it that a Japanese player posting from the NPB and following a free agent process is allowed to be listed on a Top 100 prospects list that can directly influence the drafting of whatever team signs them? The obvious example here is the Roki Sasaki posting, signing with the Dodgers who are already a front-runner and making the Top 100 list which then makes the Dodgers eligible for a PPI pick.
It just seems like a very "have your cake, eat it, then eat the other guy's cake too" moment. Shouldn't MLB-level talent coming from an established baseball league, that follows a normal free agent process, be ineligible to be on a Top 100 Prospects list or even ineligible to be a rookie?
Mayo: This gets talked about a lot, and I get it. Since MLB instituted the international bonus pool rules, we've used them to guide us in terms of ranking guys like Sasaki who come to play here. And since Sasaki was beholden to those rules -- he was limited to what he could sign for coming over -- we rank him. Is it imperfect and somewhat arbitrary? Sure, but I think it's as good a line to draw as any. Sasaki (and Ohtani before him) get ranked, while someone like Ichiro back in the day or, more recently, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, do not get ranked because they were full-on free agents and could sign for whatever they wanted/go to the highest bidder.
Jonathan Mayo is a reporter for MLBPipeline.com. Follow him on Facebook and @JonathanMayo, and listen to him on the weekly MLB Pipeline Podcast.
Brendan Samson is a contributor to MLB.com.