These are the top pitches of the first half of the season
Every pitch matters.
That might be a simplistic analysis but it's the basic premise of Statcast's Run Value system, which helped determine some of the top pitches of the first half of the 2024 season. Run values look at the run impact of an event based on the runners on base, outs, ball and strike count. Why use run values when looking at the top pitches?
When you're using whiff rate, you're only looking at pitches that were swung at. When you're looking at batting average or wOBA, it's only looking at pitches that decided a plate appearance. Even strikeouts are just a subset of pitches thrown with two strikes that got a certain result. Run value essentially puts a positive or negative impact on every pitch and adjusts for the context -- like how many runners were on base or what the count was.
These are eight of the best individual pitch types in the Majors as of the All-Star break, along with the run value they've provided. Since it was a close call, or even a tie, on many pitches, there was a preference for pitches that had good underlying numbers (whiffs, wOBA) or similar results in fewer pitches thrown.
All stats are entering Friday's games.
Cade Smith (CLE), four-seamer (+16 Run Value)
Runner-up: Reynaldo López (ATL)
Smith’s fastball isn’t just the best four-seamer according to Run Value -- it was the best overall pitch in the first half. Smith’s four-seamer doesn’t appear overly dominant based on its 95.8 mph average velocity, but he commands the pitch at will in the upper quadrant to his arm side. Throwing it 68.1 percent of the time, Smith’s four-seamer has produced an elite 39.3 percent strikeout rate and is tied for most four-seam strikeouts (46) among relievers, while opposing hitters have a measly .492 OPS against.
Emmanuel Clase (CLE), cutter (+15 RV)
Runner-up: Garrett Crochet (CHW)
Cleveland’s bullpen is rocking a 2.62 ERA at the All-Star break -- which would be the sixth-lowest mark by a bullpen this century -- so it’s unsurprising that two Guardians relievers have a pair of the most dominant pitches this season. Clase’s cutter is a bit of a unicorn, a 99.3 mph fastball with 3.6 inches of cutting action that hitters have long struggled to square up. In 2024, hitters have a .432 OPS against Clase’s cutter, while the right-hander has issued just five walks with the pitch.
Chris Sale (ATL), slider (+14 RV)
Runner-up: Ronel Blanco (HOU)
It’s been quite a resurgent season for Sale, who just made his first All-Star team after making seven straight appearances from 2012-18. A big part of Sale’s success in his first year in Atlanta is throwing his slider a career-high 39.2 percent of the time with an elite 41.9 percent whiff rate. Sale has produced 78 strikeouts on his slider, tied for the third-most by a single pitch type and second among breaking balls.
Paul Skenes (PIT), sinker (+13 RV)
Runner-up: Sean Manaea (NYM), Miles Mikolas (STL)
Classified by Statcast as a sinker and referred to as a splinker (sinker-splitter hybrid) by Skenes and some of the baseball community, Skenes’ offering is one of baseball's top and most popular pitches. Skenes incorporated the 94.1 mph sinker/splinker into his arsenal this spring and it’s been devastating for opposing hitters, who have a .157 batting average and .457 OPS against the pitch. It’s also just one part of the puzzle for the dominant rookie who started the All-Star Game -- when he tossed a scoreless inning against the fearsome top of the AL lineup -- and is the likely front-runner for Rookie of the Year in the National League.
Cristopher Sánchez (PHI), changeup (+12 RV)
Runner-up: Tyler Anderson (LAA)
Left-handed starters Sánchez and Anderson rode their excellent changeup success to All-Star appearances this season. Both accumulated a +12 run value on their changeup in the first half, but we'll side with Sánchez given that no pitcher has generated more strikeouts (57) on this pitch than the Phillies' lefty. Sánchez threw his changeup 530 times before the All-Star break and allowed a remarkably low .383 OPS with no home runs.
Fernando Cruz (CIN), splitter (+8 RV)
Runner-up: Cal Quantrill (COL), Taj Bradley (TB)
Cruz's splitter has emerged as one of baseball's elite pitches since the right-hander debuted in 2022. Out of the 658 individual pitches that have produced at least 400 swings since '22, none has produced a higher whiff rate (57.4 percent) than Cruz's splitter. Opposing hitters have managed just 19 hits in 239 plate appearances while striking out a whopping 154 times against Cruz's offering. It's been more of the same this year, with hitters whiffing on 57.3 percent of swings and striking out 56 times in 87 plate appearances.
Aaron Nola (PHI), curveball (+8 RV)
Runner-up: Tyler Glasnow (LAD), Seth Lugo (KC), Corbin Burnes (BAL) and Charlie Morton (ATL)
Nola's knuckle curveball has long been one of baseball's best and most aesthetically pleasing pitches and that's no different this season. After allowing a career-high 12 home runs on his curveball last year, Nola has allowed just three homers this season while opposing hitters have a .530 OPS. The Phillies' right-hander has punched out 60 batters with the curve, second only to Morton's curveball (61). The bounce back on Nola's curveball is a big reason why he's dropped his ERA from 4.46 last year to 3.38 in 2024.
Colin Rea (MIL), sweeper (+8 RV)
Runner-up: Anthony Bender (MIA)
Rea and Bender tied for the most run value on their sweepers, but we're siding with the Brewers' righty because of the comically good results he's had with the pitch. Opposing hitters have recorded just four hits (three singles, one double) in 65 at-bats, good for a .062 batting average -- the second-lowest mark among any pitch that has been thrown at least 200 times this season. While Rea's 22.7 percent whiff rate on the sweeper isn't exceptional, the sheer results against the pitch certainly are.