Experts predict 2025 AL, NL stat leaders

March 22nd, 2025
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      Opening Day is on the way, and it’s time to take a look at who MLB’s statistical standouts will be in 2025.

      We polled 59 MLB.com experts for their picks on who will lead the American League and National League in six key categories: homers, batting average, stolen bases, ERA, strikeouts and saves. Here are the results.

      Batting average

      AL: , Royals
      Witt led the AL (and the Majors) in batting average in 2024 with a .332 mark, and our voters think he’s due for a repeat performance. A majority of the votes for the 2025 AL batting leader went to Witt, who delivered a special all-around season for Kansas City and seems poised for more in his age-25 campaign.

      Runner-up: , Blue Jays
      Guerrero delivered a career-high .323 average in his 2024 resurgence, posting an offensive season on par with his 48-homer 2021. Set to be a free agent at season’s end unless he and the Blue Jays can agree on a contract extension, Guerrero certainly has the talent to challenge for the AL batting crown.

      Others receiving votes: Yordan Alvarez, Steven Kwan, Bo Bichette, Gunnar Henderson, Aaron Judge, Jacob Wilson

      NL: , Padres
      If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. That seems to be our voters’ mentality with Arraez, who received a majority of votes to lead the NL in batting in 2025. Arraez hit an AL-leading .316 with the Twins in 2022, an MLB-best .354 for the Marlins in 2023 and .314 between Miami and San Diego in 2024 to top the NL ranks. There seems to be little reason not to expect Arraez to contend for the batting title once again.

      Runner-up: , Mets
      Soto’s .288 batting average in 2024 was certainly an improvement on his 2022 (.242) and 2023 (.275) campaigns. The superstar outfielder has hit as well as .351 in the shortened 2020 season, which won him the NL batting title for the Nationals. Back in the Senior Circuit after signing a megadeal with the Mets, Soto is seen by our voters as a strong contender here.

      Others receiving votes: Shohei Ohtani, Trea Turner, Jackson Merrill, Corbin Carroll, Xavier Edwards, Freddie Freeman, Michael Harris II, Jung Hoo Lee, Ketel Marte, Fernando Tatis Jr.

      Home runs

      AL: , Yankees
      Judge’s prodigious power potential made him the overwhelming favorite to repeat as AL home run champion, a title he held in 2017, 2022 and 2024 (leading the Majors in the latter two seasons). The Yankees slugger has averaged 49 homers from 2021-24, and as last season’s 58-homer performance showed, he’s very much capable of keeping it up as he enters his age-33 campaign.

      Runner-up: , Athletics
      Rooker broke out with a 30-homer campaign in 2023, and he was even better the following year. The 2017 first-round Draft pick slashed .293/.365/.562 with 39 homers, tied for fourth most in the AL. If his power continues to progress, leading the league in long balls -- yes, even with Judge in the mix -- is completely possible.

      Others receiving votes: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Yordan Alvarez, Gunnar Henderson, Jake Burger, Rafael Devers, José Ramírez

      NL: , Dodgers
      Ohtani led the AL in homers in 2023 and led the NL in 2024 in his historic 50-50 campaign. Can he keep it up? Preparing for an eventual return to the mound and rehabbing from multiple surgeries could be impediments to Ohtani’s chances of another home run crown, but he’s been an elite power hitter while battling injuries and while in the midst of two-way stardom before, and there’s no reason to think he can’t do it again in 2025.

      Runner-up: , Phillies
      Schwarber hasn’t hit fewer than 30 homers in a full season since 2018, and he slugged 46 and 47, respectively, in 2022 and 2023. That 2022 mark led the NL, and it’s easy to see Schwarber doing so again if he can reach that level of power in 2025.

      Others receiving votes: Juan Soto, Fernando Tatis Jr., Bryce Harper, Matt Olson, Marcell Ozuna

      Stolen bases

      AL: Bobby Witt Jr., Royals
      Not only do our voters think Witt is poised to lead the AL in batting average, but they have him slated to show off his wheels, too. Although seven AL players stole more bases than Witt’s 31 in 2024, the Royals shortstop was caught 12 times and plans to improve his basestealing percentage in 2025. If he can do that, it’s not hard to imagine him pacing the AL in steals.

      Runner-up: , Red Sox
      Duran swiped 34 bases during his standout 2024 in addition to his MLB-leading 48 doubles and 14 triples. One of the fastest players in the Majors, the Boston outfielder wasn’t far behind Witt and was just ahead of Jazz Chisholm Jr. in our poll.

      Others receiving votes: Jazz Chisholm Jr., José Ramírez, José Caballero, Victor Robles, Chandler Simpson, Maikel Garcia, Lawrence Butler, Kristian Campbell

      NL: , Reds
      Despite being caught stealing 16 times (tied for the most in MLB), Elly stole a Major League-high 67 bases in 2024, eight more than the nearest challenger (Ohtani). Could even more steals be on the horizon this year? Our voters definitely seemed to think so, as De La Cruz was a near-unanimous favorite to lead the NL in swipes in his third Major League season.

      Runner-up: , D-backs
      Carroll’s 35 steals in 2024 were a far cry from De La Cruz’s total, but the speedy D-backs outfielder has shown he’s capable of more. If Carroll can repeat or build on his 54-steal total as a rookie in 2023, he has a strong chance to compete for the most steals in the NL.

      Others receiving votes: Ronald Acuña Jr., Brice Turang, Shohei Ohtani, Victor Scott II

      ERA

      AL: , Tigers
      Fresh off his AL Triple Crown win in an outstanding 2024 season, Skubal was our voters’ choice to lead the league in ERA for the second straight year. His 2.39 ERA last season was nearly half a run better than the nearest AL qualifier (the Astros’ Ronel Blanco at 2.80), and Skubal has given no reason to think he won’t be just as good in 2025. If so, his ERA could easily lead the AL again -- and it could be even lower this time around.

      Runner-up: , Red Sox
      Crochet will have to improve on last season’s 3.58 ERA (and pitch more innings) to contend with the best qualified starters in the AL. The lefty showed plenty of flashes of dominance in 2024 before being traded to Boston in the offseason, and the change of scenery could be just what Crochet needs to take his game to another level.

      Others receiving votes: Logan Gilbert, Cole Ragans, Jacob deGrom, Max Fried, Framber Valdez

      NL: , Pirates
      Skenes’ debut season pretty much surpassed all expectations. The first overall Draft pick from 2023 posted a 1.96 ERA in 133 innings of work in 2024, earning Rookie of the Year honors and finishing third in Cy Young voting. A sub-2 ERA is hardly easy to repeat, but Skenes is good enough to at least get close.

      Runner-up: , Phillies
      Wheeler has been a consistent, dependable ace for years now with the Phillies, but he’s never won a league ERA title. Although 2025 will be his age-35 season, Wheeler has shown little sign of slowing down and should have a strong chance of ending that streak this year.

      Others receiving votes: Corbin Burnes, Michael King, Blake Snell, Chris Sale, Dylan Cease, Shota Imanaga, Shohei Ohtani, Roki Sasaki, Justin Steele, Yoshinobu Yamamoto

      Strikeouts

      AL: Tarik Skubal, Tigers
      Hey, it’s Skubal again. Well, he led all of MLB in K’s in 2024 with 228, so his position in this poll certainly makes sense. With his projected high volume of innings and his well-above-average strikeout rate, the Detroit lefty was a narrow favorite to repeat as AL strikeout king.

      Runner-up: Garrett Crochet, Red Sox
      Crochet fanned an impressive 209 hitters in just 146 innings of work, posting a 35.1% strikeout rate that ranks among the very best in the Majors. If he can go deeper into games and keep up the K’s at a similar rate, it’s easy to envision 250 or more strikeouts for Crochet in 2025.

      Others receiving votes: Cole Ragans, Logan Gilbert, Jacob deGrom, Framber Valdez

      NL: Paul Skenes, Pirates
      Just like Skubal, Skenes’ name appears at the top of the list for strikeouts as well as ERA. Skenes already struck out 33.1% of batters in 2024, and now he’s added new pitches to his arsenal. That’s a scary thought -- one that makes it easy to foresee considerably more than 200 K’s for Skenes this season.

      Runner-up: , Padres
      Cease has been a remarkably consistent source of strikeouts since his first full season in 2021, fanning between 214 and 227 hitters every year. Entering his second year with the Padres, the right-hander -- barring an injury or a trade to an AL club -- should be in the mix for the NL lead in punchouts once again.

      Others receiving votes: Zack Wheeler, Blake Snell, Spencer Strider, Michael King, Chris Sale

      Saves

      AL: , Guardians
      The AL saves leader in 2022? Clase. In 2023? Clase. In 2024? Clase. So perhaps it’s no surprise that a majority of our voters picked Clase to run it back for a fourth straight year. Clase has been nothing short of excellent year in and year out, especially in 2024, when he posted a phenomenal 0.61 ERA in 74 1/3 innings and saved 47 ballgames. He’s still pitching in the back end of the bullpen for a Guardians team with postseason aspirations, so Clase remains as strong a pick as any here.

      Runner-up: , Athletics
      The hard-throwing Miller was among MLB’s most dominant relievers in 2024, striking out 104 hitters in just 65 innings and collecting 28 saves. If the improved A’s roster is more competitive in 2025, it should lead to more opportunities for Miller -- and he’ll be ready to convert them.

      Others receiving votes: Devin Williams, Félix Bautista, Jhoan Duran, Josh Hader, Andrés Muñoz

      NL: , Mets
      Díaz had a bit of an up-and-down 2024 after returning from a knee injury that cost him all of 2023, posting a 3.52 ERA and converting 20 of 27 save opportunities. Our voters expect him to improve on those numbers this season, picking Díaz to lead the NL in saves on a Mets team that added Soto to the roster during the offseason.

      Runner-up: , Cardinals
      MLB’s 2024 saves leader with 49 wasn’t our top pick to lead the NL in saves once again, but he finished just behind Díaz in our poll. After breaking St. Louis’ single-season saves record, the Cardinals closer is still very much at the top of his game entering 2025.

      Others receiving votes: Raisel Iglesias, Robert Suarez, Tanner Scott, Alexis Díaz, Kyle Finnegan, Ryan Pressly, Ryan Walker

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      Theo DeRosa is a reporter for MLB.com.