Top tools among position players in the Arizona Fall League

October 15th, 2024

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Everywhere you turn in the Phoenix metropolitan area in October and November, you’ll find an interesting prospect. If you’re already receiving this newsletter, you probably know that.

We at MLB Pipeline are keeping a spotlight on the six-week showcase circuit from Opening Day on Oct. 7 through the Championship Game on Nov. 16. We’re currently running our Fall League Overviews, sharing with you information and quotes from the prospects the 30 farm systems have sent to the desert this autumn. We also have a presence at every game across the Valley of the Sun, from Surprise in the northwest to Mesa in the southeast.

More on the Arizona Fall League:
Complete coverage | All-AFL Team | Award winners

Getting to witness and share what we know and see about the best talents here is a big part of the job. There are tools galore, and that got me thinking -- what would a position player look like if we combined the best tools of the Fall League into one complete package? A prospect Voltron (or Megazord, if you prefer Power Rangers), as it were. Let’s take a crack at it:

Hit: Colt Emerson, SS, Mariners (60 grade)
The 22nd overall pick in the 2023 Draft climbed to the top spot in Seattle's prospect rankings after an incredible start to his first full season at Single-A Modesto, where he batted .293 with a .440 on-base percentage while walking more times (35) than he struck out (27) in 40 games. Emerson was limited by a broken left foot and an oblique injury and he cooled off at High-A Eugene, but he's picked right back up in the Fall League. Entering Monday, seven of his 10 batted balls exceeded the hard-hit exit-velocity standard of 95 mph, and he’d whiffed on only three of his 24 pitches in front of Statcast cameras. His six doubles were three times more than anyone else in the Fall League through four games.

Obviously, we’re very much in small-sample territory here, but it’s true to Emerson’s scouting report -- his keen approach and sweet left-handed swing allow him to sting line drives all over the park. The next step will be elevation and driving those hard-hit balls over the wall, but he only turned 19 in July and we have something for that in our Build-A-Prospect model ...

Power: Xavier Isaac, 1B, Rays (65)
You can’t go wrong with either Isaac or 2024 sixth overall pick Jac Caglianone in this spot, and some might even argue for Marlins No. 12 prospect Kemp Alderman, who went deep five times in the AFL’s first week. Caglianone’s pop helped him hit 68 homers over his final two seasons at Florida, and he was the Division I leader with 33 blasts in 2023. But we’re giving Isaac the edge here because we’ve already seen what he can do in pro ball with wood bats, and the results are impressive. The No. 36 overall prospect is a career .497 slugger in the Minors, and despite reaching Double-A in his second full season, he’s yet to play in a true hitter’s league.

As Lance Brozdowski notes in this YouTube breakdown, Isaac had a 94.0 mph average exit velocity across High-A and Double-A, the best in the Minors among those with 200 or more balls in play. That’s in line with the average EVs of Juan Soto (94.2), Ketel Marte (94.0) and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (93.8), and it's better than noted mashers Yordan Alvarez (93.1) and Bobby Witt Jr. (92.7). That’s just what happens when Isaac makes contact, and that’s important to note after the left-handed slugger had swing-and-miss concerns this summer, particularly at Double-A (40.6 percent K rate). But marrying that with Emerson’s hit tool erases that in our prospect build. Don’t be surprised if Isaac pops off in the desert air, and he’s already expressed excitement at taking his pop to the Fall League.

Run: Zyhir Hope, OF, Dodgers (70)
Many across the industry have Hope circled as a potential breakout candidate this fall. The 2023 11th-rounder has four tools that grade out at 55 or better and impressed with Single-A Rancho Cucamonga, with a .287/.415/.490 line in 54 games despite being limited by a left shoulder injury. His loudest grade goes to his wheels, which are plus-plus, and while he was efficient on the basepaths in the Cal League with eight steals in 10 attempts, it’s worth wondering if he’d push the envelope more if not for the shoulder (a target in headfirst slides into second). Acquired in last offseason’s deal with the Cubs for Michael Busch, Hope can fly, with home-to-first times in the 4.0-4.1 second range, and he has the type of range that will make him a center-field option for Glendale and beyond.

Arm: Brock Wilken, 3B, Brewers (65)
Wilken’s power was his calling card coming out of Wake Forest, where he set the ACC career record with 71 homers over three seasons, and that was a primary driver in him going to Milwaukee at 18th overall in 2023. Because of his below-average speed, he might look like a candidate to move from third to first base, but his cannon of an arm keeps getting him looks at the hot corner. Some evaluators put a plus-plus grade on it going into the Draft, and that’s held up in the Fall League, where Wilken already has two of the seven fastest infield throws per Statcast, both checking in above 86 mph on soft groundouts.

Field: Edwin Arroyo, SS, Reds (60)
Tre’ Morgan is the best defensive first baseman in the Minors, and Ethan Salas earns raves for his ability to work with pitchers at such a young age. But if we’re building our own prospect, let’s go for the most valuable position on the field that doesn’t require a constant crouch – shortstop. Arroyo’s body control and ability to track down balls deep in the hole thrust him into the Top 100, and we were robbed of seeing those skills on a Minor League field this season when the Cincinnati prospect suffered a torn labrum in his left shoulder in Spring Training. He’s back with Glendale now, aiming to make up for lost time, but considering the injury was on his non-throwing side, the defense could be back up to speed at the six quickly.

That rounds out a five-tool prospect at a premium spot -- essentially rebuilding Witt using players spread across Arizona.