What we learned from the Rays' unexpected 2024 season

September 29th, 2024

This story was excerpted from Adam Berry's Rays Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

BOSTON -- The past five years, playing into the playoffs was the expectation for the Rays. They were one of four teams to qualify for the postseason each year from 2019-23, along with the Astros, Braves and Dodgers, and they hoped to make it six straight this season.

That didn’t happen, as Tampa Bay was eliminated from the playoff race on Wednesday night at Comerica Park. Thursday’s defeat also ended the club’s streak of winning seasons at six, and Sunday's season-ending loss at Fenway Park ensured the Rays' first losing season since 2017. It was an unfamiliar position for them, one they hope to avoid next year.

“It was the expectation this year,” manager Kevin Cash said. “We're proud of past accomplishments, but we’ve got to move on from them a little bit now to make sure that we can find a way to go on another exciting run where we're playing way more meaningful games right now and then into postseason baseball.”

Defining moment: From June 18 to Aug. 4, the Rays went 10-1-2 during a stretch of 13 series. Yet that span only took Tampa Bay from 34-39 (a season-low five games below .500) to 57-54 (matching a season-high three games above that mark). Winning that many series in less than two months should have created some separation for the Rays, yet it was the perfect representation of the way they spent all season hovering around the break-even point. And it was near the end of that run that the front office elected to deal veterans Randy Arozarena, Zach Eflin, Jason Adam and Isaac Paredes within the span of one weekend, transactions that signaled where Tampa Bay was heading.

What we learned: While observers might have expected the Rays to take a step back after the Trade Deadline, their run prevention actually got better in the second half of the season. That should mean they won’t have to wait long before bouncing back into postseason contention. But it also became clear the club must improve its offense to reach that point. Consider that the Rays finished the season with a 56-15 (.789) record when scoring at least four runs, compared to 24-67 (.264) when scoring three or fewer. Tampa Bay doesn’t need to have the league’s best lineup to be more competitive, but it needs to be more productive than it was this year.

Best development: The Rays are understandably excited about the way their 2025 rotation is shaping up, with Shane McClanahan set to rejoin veterans Jeffrey Springs and Zack Littell and young arms Shane Baz, Ryan Pepiot and Taj Bradley and potentially Drew Rasmussen. They are also extremely encouraged about the potential of their bullpen. Closer Pete Fairbanks finished the season on the injured list with a right lat strain, but his absence -- and a few other injuries and trades -- created bigger opportunities for younger arms like Edwin Uceta, Kevin Kelly, Manuel Rodríguez, Hunter Bigge and Mason Montgomery, all of whom have shown big-time stuff and a lot of upside.

Area for improvement: It’s the offense, obviously. Only the 121-loss White Sox (507) scored fewer runs than the Rays (604). Tampa Bay’s 3.73 runs per game this season was the lowest mark in franchise history, just below the 2014 team’s 3.78 average. As a team, the Rays hit .230/.302/.366. More alarming? Their performance with runners in scoring position, which was historically feeble. They hit just .212 with RISP, the worst average in the Majors in those situations and the third-lowest mark by any team since play-by-play data became available in 1969. (The ‘69 Padres’ .200 mark is the lowest in that timeframe.) With a few more timely hits, this season could have played out quite differently.

On the rise: is no longer a top prospect, having graduated from that status recently, but the rookie fits the bill here. The 21-year-old’s performance was uneven, as he hit .248/.299/.424 with six homers, nine doubles, 18 RBIs and 38 strikeouts. But he clearly showed his immense potential at the plate, ripping triple-digit exit velocities all over the place with his incredible raw power and bat speed, and he impressed the Rays with his work at third base and his desire to get better. Tampa Bay needs a big bat in the heart of the order, and if he keeps improving, Caminero could be exactly that.

Team MVP: Infielder missed some time earlier this season due to a right oblique strain, and he played through a finger injury and a broken toe at other points this year, but he overcame all that to offer a reminder of what his impact bat can do. Lowe hit .244/.311/.473 with a team-leading 21 homers and a .784 OPS to go along with 19 doubles and 58 RBIs in 107 games. Lowe has continued to make his way up various club-record leaderboards, cementing his place in franchise history, and he received his second Don Zimmer Most Valuable Player Award from the Tampa Bay chapter of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America.