Keep an eye on Phils prospect Painter in race for 5th starter

February 13th, 2023

This story was excerpted from Todd Zolecki’s Phillies Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

Phillies pitchers and catchers will have their first workout in Clearwater, Fla., on Thursday. There hasn’t been this much February excitement about the team in more than a decade (save Bryce Harper’s signing in February 2019). It should be fun.

Here are three key spring storylines for the Phillies:

1. The No. 5 starter

Typically, there isn’t much intrigue about a team’s fifth starter. In recent years, the battle to be the Phillies’ No. 4 or No. 5 guy might have included Chase Anderson, Matt Moore, Spencer Howard, Vince Velasquez and Ivan Nova, or Ben Lively, Jake Thompson, Mark Leiter Jr. and Thomas Eshelman.

But this spring, it includes Andrew Painter, who is the Phillies’ No. 1 prospect and the No. 6 prospect in baseball, according to MLB Pipeline. Painter is ridiculously talented, which is why he has a legitimate opportunity to become the first teenager to start in the big leagues since Julio Urías in August 2016, and the first teenager to start for the Phillies since Mark Davis on Oct. 5, 1980.

Painter turns 20 on April 10.

He will need to pitch well, of course. There will be considerations about Painter's workload, innings limit, etc. But the fact that he is even in play says something. Left-hander Bailey Falter will be Painter’s top competition this spring. Falter pitched well enough down the stretch in the regular season -- he went 6-1 with a 3.00 ERA in his final nine starts -- to bump Noah Syndergaard from the rotation.

2. Harper’s elbow

Harper had Tommy John surgery on his right elbow the day before Thanksgiving. The Phillies said then that he could rejoin the lineup as a DH around the All-Star break. They have not revised that timeline, although they admit it is conservative. Others, however, believe Harper could be back before July 1.

Keep an eye on Harper’s progress this spring, particularly when he starts taking swings in the cage. The earlier, the better, of course.

3. Getting Castellanos getting back on track

The Phillies had a top 10 offense last season, based on runs scored. They should be better this year with the addition of Trea Turner and restrictions on the shift, which should benefit Harper, Kyle Schwarber and Rhys Hoskins, each of whom saw shifted defenses in more than 66% of their plate appearances.

But the biggest boost to the Phillies’ offense (besides Harper’s return) is Nick Castellanos returning to form. Castellanos suffered the worst season of his career in 2022, based on his career-low .694 OPS. He said after Game 6 of the World Series that his first Phillies season was the most difficult year of his baseball life. Whatever the reasons for it, getting Castellanos to rediscover his swag and putting up numbers like those he posted from 2016-21 (.853 OPS, 122 OPS+) would make the Phillies’ lineup scarier upon Harper’s return.

A solid spring from Castellanos would not guarantee anything, but it would be encouraging.