3 pressing issues for Phillies this offseason

November 8th, 2022

PHILADELPHIA -- The Phillies lost Game 6 of the World Series on Saturday, returned to Philadelphia on Sunday and got back to work on Monday.

They don’t want to lose any momentum from their unexpected, magical postseason run.

“This is going to be the same team next year with a couple more pieces, I'd imagine,” Bryce Harper said Saturday night at Minute Maid Park. “Dave Dombrowski's our guy. John Middleton understands that we want to win. He wants to win right now, too. I'd imagine that we're going to be the same team, but with some more pieces to make us that much better."

There are so many ways the Phillies can go in the offseason. Here are three of the most pressing issues:

1. The rotation
The Phillies exercised Aaron Nola’s $16 million club option for 2023 on Monday, according to a source, which was a no-brainer.

Nola went 11-13 with a 3.25 ERA in 32 regular-season starts. He posted a 2.36 ERA over his final six outings, including 6 2/3 scoreless innings in Houston on Oct. 3, when the Phillies clinched the third NL Wild Card spot. Nola allowed one unearned run in 12 2/3 innings over his first two postseason starts against St. Louis and Atlanta before allowing 14 runs over 13 innings in his final three against San Diego and Houston. The Phillies envision Zack Wheeler and Nola leading the rotation again next season, with left-hander Ranger Suárez and perhaps top prospect Andrew Painter right behind them.

The Phillies will need more than that, of course, especially if they think Painter needs more time in Triple-A. Right-hander Zach Eflin declined his $15 million mutual option on Monday. Eflin and fellow starters Kyle Gibson and Noah Syndergaard are free agents.

2. Harper’s elbow
Harper will need to address the torn UCL in his right elbow, which will happen soon. He has options, depending on the severity of the tear. Asked in June about the potential for surgery, Harper said, “It’s like the [Shohei] Ohtani rule. That’s what we all say, just because he was a hitter. He was able to come back and it was the same [throwing] arm as me. I think he had a four- to six-month recovery.”

Ohtani had Tommy John surgery on Oct. 1, 2018, and returned as a designated hitter for the Angels on May 7, 2019. Harper might not need Tommy John surgery, but if he does, his timetable will be pushed back a month because of the World Series.

“I’ll be ready for Opening Day, if I do have surgery, hitting-wise,” Harper said in June. “Outfield-wise, I wouldn’t be ready until May or around there. That’s just a schedule, right? That has nothing to do with how I’m feeling. That’s like perfect scheduling. It really just depends on how your body responds to it.”

3. The lineup
The Phillies ranked seventh in the Majors in runs scored (747) and eighth in OPS (.739), right behind Houston (.743). Still, they set a record with 71 strikeouts in the World Series. They also had nine hits total over the final three games of the Fall Classic, which were all losses.

It makes sense for Philadelphia to dive into the free agent shortstop market, which would solve a few issues with second baseman Jean Segura's $17 million club option declined. Trea Turner leads the pack, but Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson are right behind him. A shortstop would allow the Phillies to move Bryson Stott to second base, if they choose. If they fall short in free agency, they could play Edmundo Sosa at shortstop and Stott at second, or focus their resources elsewhere.

Turner would look fantastic in the No. 2 spot between Kyle Schwarber and Harper. Of course, he will not come cheaply. The Phillies exceeded the luxury tax for the first time in franchise history this year, so they will be one of six teams paying the Competitive Balance Tax. It seems more than likely they will exceed the tax again in 2023. After all, this season they came within two wins of the franchise’s third World Series championship. They are unlikely to pull back now.