How Snell-to-Dodgers deal impacts starting pitching market
Blake Snell wasn’t wasting any time this offseason.
One year ago, Snell’s free agency dragged deep into the winter before he signed a two-year, $62 million deal with the Giants on March 19. A few weeks ago, the two-time Cy Young Award winner opted out of the second year of that contract to test free agency again, a decision that paid off handsomely late Tuesday night.
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Snell agreed to a five-year, $182 million deal with the Dodgers, jumping to the World Series champions with the first nine-figure deal of the offseason. Forget having a deal done prior to Christmas; Snell will now be able to sit back and relax at Thanksgiving, knowing his future is settled through the end of 2029.
“The rich get richer,” a National League executive said. “He’s a stud when he’s on the field. His only issue is whether he can stay healthy – and five years is a long time. But in the Dodgers’ situation, there’s very little risk there.”
Los Angeles’ rotation now includes Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow, while reigning NL Most Valuable Player Shohei Ohtani will likely join that group at some point early next season once he’s cleared to pitch.
Clayton Kershaw is also widely expected to return for another season, giving the champs a solid rotation in addition to great depth (Dustin May, Bobby Miller, Tony Gonsolin, Landon Knack).
The Dodgers are also expected to be among the favorites to land Roki Sasaki once he is officially posted by the Chiba Lotte Marines next month.
The impact of the Snell signing on the Dodgers is obvious. But what does it mean for the rest of the free-agent pitching market?
Yankees, Sox set for southpaw showdown?
According to sources, the Yankees, Red Sox and Orioles were all in on Snell prior to his decision to sign with the Dodgers, leaving the three American League East clubs to continue their search for pitching.
The Red Sox and Yankees are believed to be seeking a left-handed starter, which could ultimately mean a bidding war between the rivals for Max Fried.
If one of those clubs signs Fried, the other could potentially pivot to the trade market, where White Sox lefty Garrett Crochet can likely be had for the right price. If both teams miss out on Fried, the White Sox could be in the driver’s seat, as Crochet is considered to be a notch above the rest of the left-handed starters on the free-agent market (Sean Manaea, Matthew Boyd, Andrew Heaney, Jose Quintana).
“Totally different tier,” an NL executive said of Fried and Crochet. “Whoever misses out on Fried may have no choice if they’re hell-bent on adding an impact left-handed starter.”
Bird watching
The Orioles are facing the potential loss of ace Corbin Burnes, who is considered to be the top free-agent starter available. Given Snell’s contract – which will ultimately be worth between $160-165 million in present-day value taking the deferrals into account – there’s no reason to think that Burnes’ deal won’t be worth more than $200 million.
Burnes turned 30 last month, while Snell will be 32 next week. The Giants, who now must replace Snell in their rotation, are believed to have significant interest in Burnes.
“Burnes definitely gets more years,” an NL exec said. “Not sure if the AAV is all that different, but the extra years should make it a much bigger number.”
Regardless of Baltimore’s righty/lefty preference, the Orioles could get involved in the Fried sweepstakes or pursue other arms including Jack Flaherty, Nathan Eovaldi or Walker Buehler. Baltimore could also try to pry Crochet away from the White Sox, and given the depth of the Orioles’ Minor League system, they could be considered the favorites to land Crochet if they decide that’s the direction they want to take.
“That’s the team to watch on him, for sure,” an NL executive said of the Orioles.
Stove is cooking
Perhaps the most surprising aspect of the Snell deal was the timing. Last year’s slog to his mid-March signing likely had an impact on Snell’s desire to get a deal done quickly, but we have already seen multiple free-agent deals get done.
The Angels have been busy, signing Yusei Kikuchi (three years, $63 million), Travis d’Arnaud (two years, $12 million), Kevin Newman (one year, $2.8 million) and Kyle Hendricks (one year, $2.5 million), while the Royals inked Michael Wacha to a new deal (three years, $51 million) before they even had to make a qualifying offer. More than a half-dozen other players have already signed big-league free-agent deals, though Snell’s was the first nine-figure contract of the offseason.
Last winter, Aaron Nola re-signed with the Phillies for $172 million on Nov. 19, while the other three nine-figure free-agent deals of the offseason – Ohtani, Yamamoto and Jung Hoo Lee – all took place in December. But a number of free agents were forced to wait until the new year, most notably Snell, Matt Chapman, Cody Bellinger and Jordan Montgomery, all of whom signed in late-February or March.
Could this offseason be different? Will the Hot Stove return to a low simmer following the Snell deal, or could we be in for an action-packed two weeks leading up to the Winter Meetings, which begin in Dallas on Dec. 9?
“Everything is waiting on [Juan] Soto, I would imagine,” an NL executive said. “Snell might be the outlier because I can imagine he told [agent Scott Boras] that they needed to get it done quickly this time around.”
The Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, Blue Jays and Dodgers have all met with Soto and are believed to have made initial offers, setting up expectations that he will make his decision sometime around the Winter Meetings. Once that domino falls, we could begin to see a number of top free agents start to sign, as those clubs that miss out on Soto will be forced to turn elsewhere to upgrade their respective rosters.