This story was excerpted from AJ Cassavell’s Padres Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

PEORIA, Ariz. -- The Padres break camp in Peoria today. Opening Day is Thursday. The long wait for baseball is just about over.

As the new year dawns, the ambitions in San Diego are as high as they’ve ever been. After a 93-win season -- the second-highest total in franchise history -- the Padres are eager to build on what they accomplished. And to chase away the bitter taste of the way it ended.

“I still think we're one of two teams that could've won the World Series last year,” Opening Day starter Michael King said earlier this spring. “That Dodgers series was definitely a tough one to swallow. But we've still got a bunch of our core group of guys, and we're all hungry to come back.”

What Needs to Go Right?

First and foremost: health. Same as every year, the Padres must remain healthy -- particularly in the rotation, where Joe Musgrove is already slated to miss the season (Tommy John surgery) and Yu Darvish will open the year on the IL (elbow inflammation).

Beyond health, the biggest thing that needs to go right for the Padres is somewhat abstract: They need to carry the vibes from summer 2024 into ’25. Conversely, the bitter ending to the ’24 season cannot linger into ’25.

“You want to make sure that it stings -- and the sting is there,” manager Mike Shildt said. “But you don't want it to consume you. … We had a lot of really, really good things happen individually and collectively that we need to hold onto and believe and understand that's who we are. And we know, yeah, we've got unfinished business.”

Great Unknown: The Bottom Third

The top of the Padres' lineup is loaded with superstars. Among their top six hitters, five are multi-time All-Stars. The other is Jackson Merrill -- who has only played one big league season (and was an All-Star).

But the final three places in the lineup are up for grabs. One will go to a catcher. One will go to a left fielder. One will go to a DH. Nearly a dozen contenders have emerged in Padres camp for those spots (and a few bench spots as well).

Gavin Sheets and Jose Iglesias signed Minors deals early in spring and are trending toward roster spots. Elias Díaz seems destined to open the year as the team's starting catcher. Same with Jason Heyward in left. Intriguing young players -- like No. 11 prospect Tirso Ornelas -- offer Minor League depth.

It's anyone's guess what kind of production that group might bring. But it might be the difference between a good offense and a great offense.

Team MVP Will Be ... Fernando Tatis Jr.

I'll take it a step further. If Tatis contends for National League MVP, that wouldn't surprise me either.

Tatis played most of the 2024 season on one leg. He had a stress reaction in his right femur that forced him to miss a couple months. He was still an All-Star -- still batted .276 with an .832 OPS.

Now, Tatis is healthy. He says he's the healthiest he's been since the 2021 season, when he contended for the MVP Award.

"With all due respect to all the big league talent that is out there -- I definitely acknowledge them -- but when I'm 100 percent and my head is in the right spot, I feel like I'm second to no one on the baseball field," Tatis said in February. "... Looking forward to being the best version of myself out there."

So are the Padres.

Team Cy Young Will Be ... Michael King

"We lost a known commodity, a multi-generational talent in Juan [Soto]," Shildt reflected last week. "But the return is we get an Opening Day starter a year later and a guy that helped contribute to get to and win playoff games."

Indeed, the Padres gambled on King's upside in the Soto deal, and that gamble has paid off. In his first full season as a starter, he posted a 2.95 ERA and was excellent in the postseason. Now, he's the Opening Day starter in San Diego, fresh off a seventh-place finish for the NL Cy Young.

There's room for King to be even better in 2025. He struggled early last season -- perhaps expected after making the transition to the rotation. But from the start of May onward, King posted a 2.42 ERA across 24 starts.

Like Dylan Cease, King is set to become a free agent after the season. With Darvish expected to open the year on the IL, that King-Cease duo will lead the Padres into the season. There are question marks about the future, with neither King nor Cease locked up long term. But in the short term, the front of the rotation looks strong.