This story was excerpted from AJ Cassavell’s Padres Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

No way around it: The Padres did not live up to their lofty expectations in 2023. Not even close.

“We had a tough year,” said manager Bob Melvin. “And we know that we left a lot on the table.”

“It feels like a lost and missed opportunity,” added A.J. Preller. “It’s not every year, as a general manager, that you can honestly look up at the start of the season and feel like, hey, if we got a few breaks we could hoist the World Series trophy. I felt that way at the start of this year … and ultimately we’re not playing baseball right now in October.”

So where did it all go wrong?

With both Melvin and Preller set to continue in their respective roles, the Padres will likely bring back largely the same group entering the 2024 season. Their core remains intact, albeit with a handful of important free-agent and trade decisions looming.

But the first step to projecting what comes next is to understand the season that was. Here’s a recap:

Defining moment: July 31 in Denver

Coming off three straight victories over the first-place Rangers, the Padres traveled to Colorado to open a series against the Rockies that ran through the Trade Deadline. Despite, opportunity after opportunity, San Diego would lose a one-run game in extra innings.

That was, of course, a theme. The Padres finished 2-12 in extras and 9-23 in one-run games. Flip a few of those results, and they’re probably still playing.

Undeterred, the Padres were buyers at the Deadline a day later, despite sitting 5 games back in the NL Wild Card chase. They didn’t sacrifice much prospect capital. But they did sacrifice an opportunity to build for the future as sellers.

What we learned: It takes more than a collection of stars

For much of the year, the Padres insisted the expectations weren’t getting to them. But as the season wore on, and they became resigned to their fate, they began to acknowledge the truth.

“All the expectations and knowing the group that we were,” said Fernando Tatis Jr. “All the good players and the hype. People were excited. Coming in as a group together, I feel like we put a little bit of pressure on ourselves. Too much. Not trying to perform, but trying to make it happen. ... This is the hardest game in the world. Adding that pressure is just overwhelming.”

By the time the Padres started playing as a unit, it was too late. They finished 20-7 in September/October but missed the postseason by two games.

Best development: Kim’s breakout

Ha-Seong Kim was a 5-win player (give or take, based on your WAR of choice). Considering the other superstars in this Padres lineup, a season like that from Kim should’ve been the icing on the cake of an offensive juggernaut.

Instead, there’s a case to be made that Kim was the Padres’ best all-around player. He did everything defensively, bringing a plus glove to second, short and third. He was brilliant in the leadoff spot for four months, and he finished with a .260/.351/.398 slash line, despite a poor finish.

Area for improvement: Win the close ones

There’s no obvious formula here. But it’s the biggest area the Padres must change if they’d like to see their fortunes improve in 2024.

For one, they must bolster their relief corps. They also must build on their strong final month, during which they did all the little things that they just didn’t do during the first five.

On the rise: Luis Campusano

While the Padres’ season spiraled, they could take heart in this bright spot: Campusano, at long last, had broken through. In his age-24 season, the backstop missed time early in the season due to thumb surgery but was excellent upon his return.

He finished with a .319/.356/.491 slash line in 49 games while making serious strides defensively. The Padres will still look to add another catcher in free agency. But they’ll enter the ’24 season with Campusano as their presumed starter.

Team MVP: Blake Snell

Really, the entirety of the Padres rotation was excellent. It finished the year with a 3.69 ERA, the best mark in baseball -- and Snell led that charge.

He finished with a Major League-best 2.25 ERA, while also leading the sport in batting average against, OPS against and hits per nine innings. Snell is slated to hit free agency this winter -- and there’s a pretty good chance he’ll do so with a second career Cy Young Award in tow.