SAN DIEGO -- With the Padres’ thrilling 5-3 win over the Dodgers in Game 2 of the National League Division Series on Wednesday, the series is all tied up and heading to San Diego’s Petco Park for Games 3 and 4.

The Padres now have home-field advantage after getting a much-needed win at Dodger Stadium. Historically, that has been an advantage in Division Series play.

With the current 2-2-1 format (excluding the 2020 series played at neutral sites) there have been 39 previous instances of teams splitting the first two games. In those 39 series, the club heading home for Games 3 and 4 went on to advance 26 times (67%).

What other factors historically led to winning a five-game series after it’s tied up at 1-1?

MLB.com took a look at the past 10 postseasons in an effort to find any trends for the winning clubs. And buckle up, because in those postseasons there have been 18 instances of a Division Series being tied 1-1 and it went to a deciding Game 5 in 12 of those series (67%).

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The Dodgers are no strangers to the scenario, as this is the seventh time over the past 10 years that they’ve been tied in a Division Series after two games. They beat the Giants in 2021, the Nationals in ’16 and the Braves in ’13 but lost to the Nationals in ’19, the Mets in ’15 and the Cardinals in ’14.

Here’s a look at a few trends and how they relate to the series:

Home-field advantage 
It’s good news for the Padres, as over the last 10 postseasons, the club with home-field advantage for the final three games of the series has gone on to win 12 out of 17 times, not including the 2020 ALDS between the Yankees and Rays that was held at a neutral site (Petco Park, coincidentally). It’s a winning percentage of .705, which is just above the historical average.

Only one club over the last 10 postseasons has won both games on the road to end a Division Series, which also bodes well for San Diego. The Red Sox did it in the 2018 ALDS, winning Games 3 and 4 at Yankee Stadium to close out the series. Four clubs over that span have gone on to sweep both games at home to end a series, including the ’13 Dodgers.

Home runs
Power is a factor in deciding which team advances in a five-game series after it’s tied up at 1-1. Over the last 10 postseasons in those scenarios, the club with more home runs won the series 10 out of 17 times (58.8%). There was one tie in the 2018 ALDS, when the Red Sox and Yankees each homered four times, but Boston had a .429 slugging percentage that series compared to New York's .321, and the Red Sox won in four games.

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The Dodgers have displayed more power so far this series, with four homers and a .522 slugging percentage compared to San Diego's three blasts and .400 slugging percentage. Home runs have also correlated highly to winning games, in general, in recent postseasons. Teams that outhomered their opposition in a postseason game went 25-2 in 2021, 35-5 in '20, 26-7 in '19 and 19-4 in '18.

Strikeouts 
The club that strikes out more batters in a series has a decisive advantage in Division Series tied at 1-1 over the last 10 years. Those teams have won 11 of 17 series (64.7%). Of the six teams that won despite having fewer strikeouts than their opposition, the margin was within three strikeouts, with the exception of the 2017 NLDS between the Cubs and Nationals. It was an odd series that saw the Cubs get outhomered six to two, record 11 fewer strikeouts and post an ERA more than a run higher than the Nationals (3.68 ERA vs. 2.66), but they still came through with a victory in five games.

The Dodgers have the advantage in strikeouts this series. They've struck out 23 batters compared to 19 strikeouts from Padres pitchers.

Bullpen ERA
It turns out that having a lights-out bullpen can go a long way. Of those 18 Division Series tied at 1-1 over the previous 10 seasons, the club with the lower bullpen ERA won the series 15 times (83%).  The only exceptions were the Nationals in 2019 over the Dodgers (8.40 ERA vs 6.75), the 2017 Cubs over Washington (6.75 to 3.45) and the '16 Dodgers over the Nationals (2.82 to 2.18). 

It's another good sign for the Padres, as their bullpen has yet to allow a run against the Dodgers over 9 1/3 innings. Dodgers relievers have also been impressive, however, with a 1.13 ERA in eight innings. Whichever bullpen pitches better the rest of the series could have a huge advantage.