10 Statcast storylines for the WBC '17 final

10 Statcast storylines for the WBC '17 final

March 22nd, 2017

A new World Baseball Classic champion will be crowned tonight, when the United States faces Puerto Rico at Dodger Stadium.
The Americans, coming off a 2-1 semifinal victory over Japan on Tuesday, will be the road team against an undefeated Puerto Rico squad at 9 ET on MLB Network and MLB.TV. The confrontation will be a rematch of a thrilling second-round game between the two teams, which Puerto Rico won, 6-5, Friday in San Diego.
:: 2017 World Baseball Classic ::
Here are 10 Statcast™ storylines to follow for the final:
1. 's high-spin curveball
The right-hander, who will get the start for Puerto Rico, was solid against the U.S. in the teams' second-round matchup, allowing three earned runs on five hits over 5 2/3 innings, walking one and striking out two. In the process, he showed off the same high-spin curve that helped him post a 2.67 ERA across 64 innings during his rookie season with the Mets. Lugo's average of 3,318 rpm was easily the highest of the Statcast™ Era (2015-16), and he also threw 36 of the top 50 individual curves in terms of spin rate.
Highest average curveball spin rate, Statcast™ Era
Minimum 100 thrown
1. Lugo: 3,318 rpm
2. : 3,100 rpm
3. : 3,000 rpm
4. Charlie Morton: 2,970 rpm
5. : 2,953 rpm

2. getting on top
The Blue Jays' righty, starting for Team USA, will hope for a better outing than he managed against Puerto Rico in the last round (4 2/3 innings, four earned runs). Stroman will be on his game if he is inducing lots of ground balls. He led all qualified pitchers with a 60.1 percent ground-ball rate last season, so it's no surprise he also rated well in terms of getting hitters to "top" the ball -- pound it into the ground, where little damage can be done. Stroman's "topped" rate of 49 percent ranked second among all pitchers who faced at least 500 batters in 2016.
Highest "topped" ball rate for pitchers, 2016
Minimum 500 batters faced

  1. : 50 percent
    2. Stroman: 49 percent
  2. : 45 percent
  3. : 45 percent
  4. : 44 percent
    3. The multi-talented
    The Cubs' infielder has been all over the place for Puerto Rico in this tournament. At the plate, he is 8-for-24 (.333) with a double, a homer and five RBIs. On the bases, he has stolen four bags, including three in one game against Team USA. And in the field, he made a huge play on Monday night to get Puerto Rico to the championship, throwing out Netherlands runner at home plate to keep the game tied in the fifth inning. Baez's 89.6-mph strike -- capped by 's deft tag -- had a higher velocity than all but two assists tracked from second basemen in 2016.
    4. Will smash one?
    Stanton stands above when it comes to exit velocity, as he showed earlier in this tournament. His two-run homer in Team USA's second-round win over the Dominican Republic came off at the bat at a whopping 117.3 mph and slammed off the Western Metal Supply Co. building beyond left field at Petco Park. Stanton actually hit a ball even harder against Japan on Tuesday (118 mph), though this one was a groundout. That sort of contact is nothing new for the Marlins' slugger, who even before this Classic had hit 42 balls 115 mph or harder in the Stacast Era, blowing away the rest of the field.
    Most batted balls of 115+ mph, Statcast™ Era
    1. Stanton: 42
  5. : 11
  6. : 8
  7. : 5
    5-T. : 4
    5-T. : 4

5. lighting up the gun
Puerto Rico's closer has two saves in the tournament, striking out nine batters in 5 1/3 innings. One of those saves and three of those strikeouts came against the U.S., although Diaz also allowed a two-run triple to that brought the tying run within 90 feet. The Mariners' righty then pitched two scoreless innings for the win in the semifinals against the Netherlands, continuing to show off his electric stuff. Diaz's average two-seam-fastball velocity of 97.7 mph was one of the best in MLB last year, and he threw the third-most at 100 mph or faster.
Most two-seamers/sinkers of 100+ mph, 2016

  1. : 26
  2. : 22
    3. Diaz: 21
  3. : 18
  4. : 5
    6. 's lofty launch angle
    Kinsler had the critical hit in Team USA's win over Japan in the semifinals, a long double launched deep into the left-center-field gap that set up the game-winning run in the eighth inning. With an exit velocity of 99.6 mph and a launch angle of 22 degrees, it was right in keeping with how the U.S. leadoff man typically puts the bat on the ball. In the Statcast™ Era (2015-16), few players have been more adept than Kinsler at lifting the baseball. Out of 141 hitters who have put at least 600 balls in play during that span, Kinsler's 17.8-degree average launch angle ranks fourth. His 39 homers over that span have averaged a 31-degree angle.
    Highest average launch angle, Statcast™ Era
    Minimum 600 balls in play
  5. : 19.5 degrees
  6. : 18.3 degrees
  7. Chris Davis: 18.1 degrees
    4. Kinsler: 17.8 degrees
  8. Matt Carpenter: 17.7 degrees

7. 's infield power
Correa, a shortstop when with the Astros, has played third base for Puerto Rico to make room for slick-fielding Indians star . It's appropriate in a way, because at the plate, Correa has the power of a corner infielder. It's showed in the Classic: Correa is hitting .400 with a .900 slugging percentage entering the final against Team USA, with a team-high three home runs and nine RBIs. Shortstop is a position that traditionally has not seen high levels of offense, but Correa is a force with the bat. Last season, he posted an average exit velocity of 91.8 mph, which led all shortstops. And his 32 barreled balls ranked fifth at the position.
Highest average exit velocity for SS, 2016
Minimum 100 batted balls
1. Correa: 91.8 mph
2. Brad Miller: 91.7 mph
3. : 91.5 mph
4. : 91.5 mph
5. J.J. Hardy: 91.0 mph
8. and 's hard contact
As the Classic has gone on, Yelich and Hosmer have established themselves as middle-of-the-order hitters for Team USA. Hosmer heads into the final against Puerto Rico batting .375 with a homer and three doubles; Yelich is at .292 with three doubles of his own. That's just continuing their trend from 2016, when few Major Leaguers struck the ball with authority as often. Hosmer and Yelich each recorded 155 batted balls of 100 mph or harder, putting them in a three-way tie for sixth in MLB. What's the significance of 100 mph? When reaching that mark, the league posted a .629 batting average and 1.319 slugging percentage last season.
Most balls in play at 100+ mph, 2016

  1. : 195
  2. Cruz: 179
  3. : 166
  4. Manny Machado: 165
  5. Trumbo: 162
    6-T. Hosmer: 155
    6-T. Yelich: 155
    6-T. Josh Donaldson: 155
    9. 's outfield cannon
    The right fielder already has shown off his arm in the Classic, uncorking a perfect throw to nail at the plate in Puerto Rico's win over the Dominican Republic. And that's exactly what he did all last season. Rosario averaged 95 mph on "max effort" throws -- those above his 90th percentile -- ranking ninth among all outfielders with at least 75 tracked throws. Meanwhile, Rosario trailed only for most outfield assists of 90 mph or faster (12), and was tied for second in 95-plus-mph assists (four). His 99.5-mph throw to get Team USA's at home on Aug. 9 was the fourth-hardest outfield assist of the Major League season.
    Most outfield assists of 90+ mph, 2016
  6. Inciarte: 13
    2-T. Rosario: 12
    2-T. : 12
    4-T. : 10
    4-T. : 10

10. Crawford and Correa, strong-armed infielders
Crawford has been a cornerstone for the U.S. all tournament. He's been impressive at the plate, entering the final batting .429 in WBC '17, the best among Team USA regulars. And, of course, he provides Gold Glove-caliber defense at shortstop. One part of Crawford's effectiveness is his strong arm. Crawford's average "competitive" throw -- in other words, throws ranking higher than his 90th percentile -- was 86.5 mph, according to Statcast™. That ranked fifth out of 31 shortstops who had at least 150 throws tracked in 2016.
Meanwhile, Correa ranked one spot ahead of Crawford on the shortstop arm strength list, with his average competitive throw tracking at 87.5 mph. Even though he's at a different position in WBC '17, he clearly has all the arm strength he needs to handle the hot corner for Puerto Rico.
Highest average "competitive" arm strength, 2016
Minimum 150 throws from SS

  1. Danny Espinosa: 90.7 mph
  2. Didi Gregorius: 88.3 mph
  3. : 88.2 mph
    4. Correa: 87.5 mph
    5. Crawford: 86.5 mph
    The World Baseball Classic concludes tonight. In the U.S., the championship game airs live exclusively in English on MLB Network and on an authenticated basis via MLBNetwork.com/watch, while ESPN Deportes and WatchESPN provide the exclusive Spanish-language coverage. MLB.TV Premium subscribers in the U.S. have access to watch live on any of the streaming service's 400-plus supported devices. The tournament is being distributed internationally across all forms of television, internet, mobile and radio in territories excluding the U.S., Puerto Rico and Japan. Get tickets for the championship game at Dodger Stadium, while complete coverage -- including schedules, video, stats and gear -- is available at WorldBaseballClassic.com.