Why Tucker trade makes sense for Cubs, Astros
One of the best all-around hitters in the Major Leagues is on the move. The Cubs and Astros completed a four-player deal on Friday that sent star outfielder Kyle Tucker to Chicago for power-hitting third baseman Isaac Paredes, right-handed pitcher Hayden Wesneski and 2024 first-round Draft pick Cam Smith.
TRADE DETAILS
Cubs get: OF Kyle Tucker
Astros get: 3B Isaac Paredes, RHP Hayden Wesneski, 3B Cam Smith (No. 73 overall prospect)
Here is a breakdown of this major deal from all angles, via MLB.com experts.
Why it makes sense for the Cubs
Via Cubs beat writer Jordan Bastian
The Cubs are in win-now mode and were on the hunt for a way to not only enhance the lineup but inject some real star power into the heart of the order. Tucker meets the criteria.
Even while limited to 78 games due to a fractured right shin last year, Tucker posted 4.7 WAR (Baseball Reference). That topped last season's WAR leader for the Cubs, who had shortstop Dansby Swanson pace the club with a defense-heavy showing of 4.0 in 149 games. In that abbreviated season, Tucker belted 23 home runs. One player (Ian Happ with 25) topped that last year for Chicago.
Tucker is only under contract through 2025 right now, but this gives the Cubs time to potentially sell him on considering an extension. He'll likely be in no rush on that front, given the kind of payday that could be waiting in free agency next winter. Chicago's priority is 2025, especially after posting back-to-back 83-win campaigns with no playoff wins for the franchise since 2017.
What the Cubs need to solve now is the outfield logjam, given that Tucker plays right field, along with Seiya Suzuki and Cody Bellinger. Trade rumors have followed both Suzuki and Bellinger this offseason, though Bellinger appears more likely to be moved. Acquiring Tucker gives Chicago a star offensive performer that would make another trade easier to withstand in the name of addressing other needs. More >>
Why it makes sense for the Astros
Via Astros beat writer Brian McTaggart
After losing star outfielder George Springer in free agency to the Blue Jays after the 2020 season and star shortstop Carlos Correa to the Twins in free agency a year later, the Astros decided to trade Tucker a year before he hit free agency.
They let Springer and Correa walk because they had younger players coming up who could fill those roles -- and the team continued to win – but with a thin farm system at the upper levels, the Astros chose to get something in return for Tucker and address their needs for corner infield and starting pitching.
Prospect profile
Via Jim Callis and MLB Pipeline
3B Cam Smith (No. 73 overall prospect)
Age: 21
Ht: 6’ 3” / Wt: 224 lbs
Bats: R / Throws: R
Drafted: 1st round, 2024
MLB ETA: 2026
Scouting grades (on 20-80 scale): Hit: 55 | Power: 50 | Run: 45 | Arm: 60 | Field: 50 | Overall: 55
2024 stats
Single-A Myrtle Beach: .313/.404/.771, 6 HR, 12 RBIs, 1 SB in 15 games
High-A South Bend: .333/.421/.500, 1 HR, 9 RBIs, 1 SB in 12 games
Double-A Tennessee: .263/.300/.474, 0 HR, 3 RBIs, 0 SB in 5 games
It's easy to see why the Cubs were willing to part with Smith to get a superstar hitter, and it's easy to see why the Astros would want him. Smith went 14th overall in the 2024 Draft after an All-America season at Florida State and reached Double-A at the end of a strong pro debut, but Chicago has a logjam of position players in the big leagues and Triple-A, and finding a spot for Matt Shaw (No. 22 on the Top 100 Prospects list) was a more immediate priority than figuring out where Smith would fit in a year or so. For Houston, Smith immediately becomes the best prospect in a thin farm system. Paredes looks like he'll be Bregman's immediate successor at third base for the Astros, and if Paredes sticks around, Smith theoretically could move to an outfield corner when he's ready.
Hot Stove implications
Via writer/researcher Theo DeRosa
Tucker was arguably the best bat available via free agency or trade this offseason not named Juan Soto, and Friday’s deal will have considerable consequences for the rest of the Majors.
For one, the Astros’ return -- a 2024 All-Star in Paredes, a reliable Major League arm in Wesneski and a first-round Draft choice in Smith -- can help set the market for players with one remaining year of club control. Padres starter Dylan Cease and White Sox outfielder Luis Robert Jr. are among the top remaining trade candidates who will become free agents after the 2025 season, although their values will likely be different from Tucker’s. Houston could also move lefty Framber Valdez, who has one year of control left, after dealing away Tucker.
With the Winter Meetings over but plenty of offseason left to go, the other clubs that pursued Tucker prior to the deal will have to turn elsewhere. The Phillies, who were reportedly interested in the three-time All-Star, are still looking to add an outfield bat to a star-studded roster. The Yankees, who general manager Brian Cashman said had “many conversations” with the Astros about Tucker, will also have to keep looking.
The effects of Friday’s trade on the two clubs involved will be interesting, too. Trade scenarios for Bellinger and Suzuki were in play even before Chicago made its swing for Tucker, so a deal involving at least one of the two outfielders is even more likely now. And now that the Cubs have a star hitter on their roster, a star pitcher could be their next addition. The Astros, meanwhile, have been hoping to bring back Bregman, but they acquired an All-Star third baseman in the deal for Tucker. Paredes has played all over the infield in his career, so he could move elsewhere (probably to first base) if Bregman returns -- but that reunion now seems less likely.
Diving deep
Via national content editor Andrew Simon
The Cubs needed a true star. Now they have one. That’s really where any analysis of this trade has to begin and end, even though it’s fair to point out that with one season of club control remaining, Tucker’s time at Wrigley Field could wind up being as brief as Soto’s was in the Bronx.
Chicago was hardly a bad baseball team in the first year of Craig Counsell’s tenure, winning 83 games with the run differential of an 88-win team. But the Cubs, while full of solid contributors, were sorely lacking top-tier production, especially on the offensive side. That was going to be an issue again in 2025. FanGraphs had them, pre-trade, with just the 19th-highest projected WAR. The team’s top projected position player (via Steamer) was Ian Happ, barely inside the top 50. Its top projected pitcher is Shota Imanaga, at 31st.
So if any serious contender out there needed to acquire an elite player, it was the Cubs, especially when you consider the door is wide open for them to return to prominence in the NL Central. Tucker is that guy, as long as the fractured right shin that limited him to 78 games last year has no lasting effects. This is, simply put, one of the best all-around talents in baseball, with Tucker ranking 13th in fWAR among position players since 2021. He excels in all facets of the game, even going 66-for-75 (88%) in steal attempts over the past three seasons despite well-below-average sprint speed.
While the biggest question for the Cubs now is whether they will stay aggressive and keep adding talent, the biggest question for the Astros is whether this signals the end of their long run of success. To be clear, it might not. Paredes’ pull-the-ball-in-the-air approach is a perfect fit for Houston’s Crawford Boxes, and he can step in for Bregman at third base. Wesneski can help the pitching staff right now, and Smith reached Double-A soon after getting drafted 14th overall in July. There’s a version of this that works out nicely for the Astros, who clearly were not going to retain Tucker beyond 2025.
With that said, this return feels light for Houston, even given Tucker’s single year of control. Paredes, while a great fit for the Astros’ ballpark, has batted-ball metrics that rank near the bottom of the league and likely has already maxed out his ability. Wesneski is already 27 and has yet to really establish himself in the Majors, with poor expected metrics over the past two seasons. That puts a lot of pressure on Smith to develop into the star of the deal on the Houston side.
Stat to know
Via MLB.com research staff
4.7: Tucker’s Baseball Reference WAR in 2024, which he amassed in just 78 games. Tucker had only 277 at-bats to make his mark, tying him for the most bWAR in a season in AL/NL history by a player with 300 or fewer at-bats. That’s a 9.8-WAR pace over 162 games, meaning a fully healthy Tucker could have at least been in the AL MVP discussion. In the Modern Era, Cubs hitters have only had five 9+ bWAR seasons, with the most recent belonging to Sammy Sosa in 2001 (10.3 WAR). If Tucker can approximate his 2024 production over a full season, he could author one of the best offensive campaigns in the franchise’s long history.