Surging Rodriguez pitching with 'conviction'

LHP's six-inning, one-hit start vs. A's his first with 0 ER in 2021

July 3rd, 2021
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      OAKLAND -- There was a period in the not-so-distant past when nothing went 's way. That’s quickly changing.

      Rodriguez logged his third consecutive quality start in Boston’s 3-2 win over the A’s on Friday night at Oakland Coliseum, allowing just one hit across six innings of shutout ball. For the southpaw, it was the continuation of his climb back towards normalcy.

      "You can see him on the mound; there’s a lot of conviction,” said manager Alex Cora. “I think probably that was the last step.”

      Over his last three starts, Rodriguez is, once again, performing like one of the best lefties in the American League. He’s allowed just five earned runs across 18 innings (2.50 ERA) with 21 strikeouts to three walks, and Friday’s outing was the first this season in which he didn’t allow a single earned run. Just several weeks prior, “normal” would’ve been the worst adjective to describe Rodriguez’s season.

      In a seven-start stretch from May 12 to June 15, Rodriguez had an 8.55 ERA. Strictly from the perspective of run prevention, it was one of the worst runs in his career. The numbers under the hood, however, told a different story.

      During those outings, Rodriguez’s FIP (fielding independent pitching) was 3.58, the biggest reason being that his peripherals were around his career averages. He was striking out more batters than usual (12.03 per nine) while walking (3.21 per nine) and allowing home runs (1.34 per nine) close to his standard rate. But there's another factor that played into that brutal period: luck.

      Rodriguez’s career BABIP, or batting average on balls in play, is .305. That’s pretty standard for most pitchers. In those seven outings, however, Rodriguez’s BABIP was .447, an absurdly high mark indicative of downright horrible luck. At some point, that number was going to flatten out. In recent days, it’s done just that.

      Over Rodriguez’s last three starts, his BABIP has been .256, veering in the opposite direction. On Friday, the A’s put 13 balls in play against him, but only mustered one infield hit. Rodriguez’s BABIP now sits at .357, which would be a career-worst season total, but that number has been dropping in recent days, an indication of how his season is stabilizing.

      The play that best exemplified Rodriguez’s ability to catch breaks came in the second inning, thanks to some solid defense from his All-Star shortstop.

      With Chad Pinder on second base and two outs, Frank Schwindel smacked a pitch into the six-hole. If the ball made it into the outfield, Pinder would’ve had a good shot at scoring. Instead, shortstop Xander Bogaerts made a diving stop, forcing Pinder to pump the breaks at third base.

      Bogaerts didn’t prevent the hit -- Schwindel reached on a single, the lone hit Rodriguez would allow -- but prevented a run from scoring. Rodriguez subsequently ended the threat by striking out Tony Kemp with a perfectly placed sinker on the outside corner to end the frame and keep Oakland scoreless.

      Regardless of individual game outcomes, Rodriguez has been mindful to maintain a state of equilibrium.

      The lefty reflected following his start against the A’s that he had to “learn the hard way” that bad outings are the reality of every pitcher. In the 2018 World Series, Rodriguez memorably slammed his glove on the mound in frustration after allowing a three-run home run to Yasiel Puig. Rodriguez, now in his sixth season, has a better understanding of moving forward without dwelling too much on the past, good or bad.

      The southpaw will ultimately need to string together a couple more solid outings to drag his ERA back down to earth, but all signs point to Rodriguez heading in the right direction.

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      Justice delos Santos is a reporter for MLB.com.