Troubling trend emerging for Lively as Guards can't sweep Royals

September 5th, 2024

KANSAS CITY -- Ben Lively has been one of Cleveland’s most reliable starters this season, but as he blows past his career high in innings, starts and pitches thrown -- a troubling trend is starting to emerge.

Lively went just four innings and was tagged for four runs in the Guardians’ 4-1 loss to the Royals on Wednesday night at Kauffman Stadium. With Minnesota’s loss to Tampa Bay, the Royals and Twins trail the Guardians by 4 1/2 games for first place in the AL Central.

But it’s been a worrisome stretch for Lively, who has watched his ERA slowly climb each month this season. He had a strong 2.30 mark in April before another two solid months in May (3.07) and June (3.42), but things have spiraled since the All-Star break. Lively had a 4.50 ERA in July before a concerning 5.40 ERA in August that preceded his four-run outing against Kansas City. In his previous start against the Pirates, Lively tied a season high with six runs allowed on nine hits and one walk.

Lively’s four-inning outing against the Royals ended at just 78 pitches (51 strikes).

Despite his recent struggles, the Guardians still have faith Lively will be a big part of the Guardians’ postseason push this September.

“It’s hard to play a six-month season, but Ben is throwing the ball well at times over the last couple [of starts], and obviously we monitor those things,” manager Stephen Vogt said of Lively’s workload. “But Ben has been great for us all year, and I have full confidence he is going to come out next time ready to go.”

Now at 135 innings pitched this season, surpassing his previous career high of 88 2/3 in both 2017 with Philadelphia and ‘23 with Cincinnati, Lively is entering previously untested waters. His 2,159 pitches this season makes up about 39.1% of his five-year career total.

“For me, I just have to be better,” Lively said. “I’m at that point in my career where I have no excuses. I just have to be better.”

Wednesday’s outing got away from Lively in the fourth. The 32-year-old worked around at least one baserunner in each of the first three innings, but things spiraled out of control in the fourth. Paul DeJong’s ground-ball single got things started for Robbie Grossman and Michael Massey, who each notched base hits, but it was Tommy Pham’s three-run homer that punctuated Lively’s second straight rocky outing.

Lively set down the next two batters after Massey to face Pham with two outs, but Lively left a 91.8 mph fastball near the heart of the plate, which was sent 423 feet to left-center field.

“I thought Ben really battled. I didn’t think he had his best command, breaking stuff wasn’t real sharp tonight, but really battled for those first three to keep them off the board,” Vogt said. “And then I felt like in the fourth they were getting to him pretty good.”

Lively’s outing snapped Cleveland’s best run through the rotation this season. Prior to Wednesday, the Guardians’ rotation had four straight starts (Matthew Boyd, Alex Cobb, Gavin Williams and Tanner Bibee) of at least six innings while allowing one run or fewer for the first time this season.

“Thinking about being better, that’s what pushes me [after] games like this,” Lively said. “ … There’s only one way to fix it, and it’s getting back out there and doing it.”

The bullpen tossed four innings of scoreless relief to pick up Lively, which included 1 1/3 frames from Erik Sabrowski, who struck out two in his Major League debut. But it wasn’t enough against Royals starter Seth Lugo.

The Guardians were held under four runs for just the second time in their past seven games, with Andrés Giménez and José Ramírez providing the only spark with a two-out rally in the third.

Lively couldn’t cap the three-game sweep over Kansas City, but Cleveland is still in the driver’s seat for a bye in the postseason. With 22 games remaining, the Guardians lead the Astros by 4 1/2 games for the AL’s No. 2 seed, and are just a half-game behind the Orioles for the best record in the American League.

“It was a great series,” Vogt said. “Any time you go on the road and take two of three, you have to be happy. Would have loved to walk away with a sweep, obviously, but we can’t complain at all with a series win on the road.”