If the playoffs began today, here’s how they’d look

May 4th, 2023

Now that we’re a month into the 2023 season, it’s a good time to reflect on the standings, as well as what the postseason bracket would look like if the playoffs were to begin today.

There have already been some big surprises in the early going, particularly with the upstart Pirates and the surging Orioles, making for some very intriguing playoff matchups, in theory. And there would be some other big surprises of a different kind if the playoffs started today -- teams you would not expect to miss the postseason that would be on the outside looking in. In fact, if the postseason began right now, seven of the 12 playoff teams from last fall would not qualify this year.

Here’s a look at what the postseason would look like if it opened today.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Byes: Rays (1), Rangers (2)

Wild Card Series matchups

Red Sox (6) at Twins (3)

Blue Jays (5) at Orioles (4)

Just missed: Angels (0.5 games out), Yankees (1), Astros (1.5)

The Rays (25-6) continue to enjoy a historic run to open their season, authoring the best start through 31 games in franchise history. The Rangers, meanwhile, have raised eyebrows with their surge to begin the 2023 campaign under new manager Bruce Bochy despite injuries to ace Jacob deGrom and slugger Corey Seager, among others. As of today, both clubs would receive first-round byes in the postseason.

The third-seeded division winner would be the Twins, who would play the Red Sox in the Wild Card Series, while a pair of other teams from the AL East, the Blue Jays and Orioles (who would be making their first postseason appearance in seven years), would face off in the other Wild Card matchup.

Division Series matchups

Red Sox (6) or Twins (3) at Rangers (2)

Blue Jays (5) or Orioles (4) at Rays (1)

Perhaps the most surprising element of Tampa Bay’s tremendous start to this season is its power at the plate -- no club has launched more home runs than the Rays’ 64 so far. If they were to meet the Jays in the ALDS, it’d be a collision of two powerhouse lineups, even though the opposite has transpired for Toronto so far -- the Jays’ 35 homers are just over half of the Rays’ total. But imagine a scenario in which we get to see the likes of Wander Franco, Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in the same October series.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Byes: Braves (1), Pirates (2)

Wild Card Series matchups

Padres (6) at Dodgers (3)

D-backs (5) at Brewers (4)

Just missed: Marlins (0.5 games out), Mets (0.5), Cubs (1)

The Braves and Pirates with byes? What is this, 1992? Well, no, particularly because there were no byes to be had before the Wild Card Era began in 1995. Nevertheless, it would be the first time since ’92 that Pittsburgh and Atlanta would own the best records in the NL. While it’s still very early, the Bucs’ hot start to the year (though it’s been cooled a bit by the Rays in recent days) has them in line for an automatic berth in the NL Division Series.

The Braves, meanwhile, would be in familiar territory after entering the season having won the last four NL East titles. Three of the remaining four clubs that would qualify for the postseason today would come from the NL West, with the Padres and Dodgers meeting in a SoCal showdown in which Los Angeles would be seeking to avenge last year’s NLDS loss to San Diego. The D-backs, another early surprise with an exciting young core, would play the pitching-rich Brewers in the other Wild Card Series.

Division Series matchups

Padres (6) or Dodgers (3) at Pirates (2)

D-backs (5) or Brewers (4) at Braves (1)

Seeing the Pirates in the NLDS for the first time in a decade would be quite something. Having the Bucs face the Padres would make such a series even more intriguing, since Pittsburgh hasn’t won a World Series since 1979, and San Diego has never won one despite getting oh so close to the Fall Classic last year.

Who’s out from last year?

Astros, Cardinals, Guardians, Mariners, Mets, Phillies, Yankees

Some real powerhouses on this list, particularly in the AL, where if the season were to end today, the defending World Series champion Astros and the Yankees -- who won 99 games last year -- would be on the outside looking in. The Mariners, who broke a 21-year postseason drought last fall, would also miss it this time around. The Cardinals and Guardians are having disappointing starts in their respective Central divisions, while two NL East powerhouses would also be conspicuously absent, as the Mets and defending NL champion Phillies would fall short as well.

Who’s new this year?

Brewers, D-backs, Orioles, Rangers, Red Sox, Pirates, Twins

What a fun group here. If the season ended today, the Pirates and D-backs would be in the postseason much earlier than expected based on their respective rebuilding timelines. And the O’s would finally be playing postseason baseball again after a seven-year absence. The Rangers would be the third team Bochy has led to the playoffs after guiding the Padres to the 1998 World Series and winning three World Series championships with the Giants in 2010, ’12 and ’14; that would end a seven-year postseason drought for Texas. It hasn’t been as long of a playoff hiatus for the Brewers and Twins, but here you have two franchises who haven’t won it all in more than three decades.