McNeil flashes 2022 form with 3-RBI night

August 6th, 2023

BALTIMORE -- To recap the fallout from the Mets’ organizational pivot at the Trade Deadline: There are the players it sent out of the organization, the players it brought in, the players for whom it created opportunity and the players for whom it brought uncertainty. Then there are the few players who -- strictly speaking -- it didn’t really affect at all, like .

Like Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo, Starling Marte and Kodai Senga, McNeil is one of a handful of veterans contractually committed to the club past next season, courtesy of the four-year, $50 million extension he inked in January that could keep him in Flushing through 2027. But it has been a rough go in the first year of that deal for McNeil, who has followed up his 2022 batting title with one of the most trying summers of his career.

Which is why it was encouraging for the Mets to see McNeil enjoy his biggest night at the plate in some time Saturday night, when he provided a bright spot in their 7-3 loss to the Orioles at Oriole Park. McNeil socked a two-run homer in the fourth and a run-scoring single in the sixth to account for all of New York’s runs off Kyle Gibson and first-place Baltimore’s bullpen, as Tylor Megill’s uneven return to the Majors resulted in the team’s fifth straight defeat.

“I’m seeing the ball well,” McNeil said. “I feel like I’ve been swinging the bat a little better the past couple of weeks or so.”

Asked about any adjustments he has made over that time, McNeil said, “Trying to get my swing better, trying to get back to who I am. Trying to get singles, trying to get on base.” 

That is an identity McNeil carved out for himself over the past six seasons, including the first two months of this one. But he fell into a slump in June that has stretched on, consuming much of the second baseman’s summer. Meanwhile, the Mets faded from World Series hopefuls to positioning for the future. 

Even after Saturday’s outburst, McNeil has slashed only .219/.285/.308 since June 1. His homer was his first since June 11. Overall, he has gone deep only four times this season and is hitting .253, a year removed from winning the NL batting crown with a .326 average.

“It’s been a real frustrating year for me,” McNeil said. “Not where I want to be, not where the team wants to be. So I’m trying to do what I can to get back.”

McNeil alluded to mechanical and approach issues as the cause of his struggles; statistically, the indicators are subtle, but significant.

McNeil’s hard-hit percentage is actually up slightly from last season, and he is chasing, walking and striking out at almost precisely the same rates as he did in 2022. Yet his expected and actual numbers are down precipitously -- and in the year the limits on defensive shifts has benefited left-handed and contact hitters nearly across the board, no less.

So what gives? One explanation is his aggressiveness. While McNeil is walking the same amount as last year, he’s posting the lowest overall swing rate (51 percent), in-zone swing rate (74 percent) and first-pitch swing rate (36.8 percent) of his career. In short, he’s swinging at fewer strikes.

The next indicator is what’s happening when he does swing at those strikes. His line drive rate is down about 3 percent -- not an enormous difference on the surface, but again, significant for a hitter like McNeil, who doesn’t drive the ball out of the ballpark very much. Instead, lots of those non-lined batted balls have turned into popups. His popup rate (9.4 percent) is nearly double his rate (5.9 percent) from 2022. 

Finally, there is what happens to those batted balls after they leave the bat. McNeil benefitted from an enormous 46-point difference between actual and expected batting average last season.

This year that gap is virtually nonexistent. While the data suggests McNeil hasn’t been particularly unlucky, it also seems he hasn’t had many fortuitous bounces. Combined, those indicators help to explain why his underlying quality of contact and other metrics are virtually the same this season even though his actual numbers are way down. 

For McNeil and the Mets during this transitional time, the only option is to keep grinding. 

“It is tough selling, and it’s a situation I’ve never been in,” McNeil said. “We’re a bunch of professionals here, but it is tough losing some of your best players. It hurts. We just gotta step up, play better, the young guys gotta come through and we gotta play better baseball.”