This story was excerpted from Anthony DiComo’s Mets Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

If it feels like the entire Mets offseason has been held up by Yoshinobu Yamamoto, that’s because it essentially has. Two paths are still open before the team. One includes Yamamoto. The other does not. How president of baseball operations David Stearns proceeds will depend in large part upon whether the Mets get their man. 

Their interest in Yamamoto is not only obvious, but has already been discussed ad nauseum in this space. The Mets should have their answer by Christmas, which is to say in less than a week. Until then, it’s worth examining how things might unfold once Yamamoto makes his decision. 

Scenario No. 1: The Mets sign Yamamoto
This is, of course, the Mets’ preference, given how well Yamamoto fits into their future plans. If Stearns and Steve Cohen manage to land him, they can count on a rotation led by Yamamoto and Kodai Senga at least through 2025 (at which point Senga may be able to opt out of his contract). Future planning would become easier for the Mets, who could rely on some combination of Mike Vasil, Blade Tidwell, Christian Scott, Dominic Hamel and Tyler Stuart as rotation members by ’25. 

Yamamoto would also give the Mets four veteran starters in their ’24 rotation: Him, Senga, José Quintana and Luis Severino. There would still be room for another arm on a big league contract, with quite a few options potentially available on one- or two-year deals. My colleagues Thomas Harrigan and Brian Murphy did a nice job this week breaking down the available free agents in all corners of the market.

From there, the offseason would become relatively straightforward. The Mets still need an outfielder and figure to follow a similar shopping pattern there, seeking those available on one- or two-year deals. Older, athletic center field types such as Michael A. Taylor and Kevin Kiermaier fit their mold more snugly than younger corner bats like Teoscar Hernández and Jorge Soler, for the simple reason that they will command shorter contracts. Same goes in the bullpen, where the team intends to avoid multi-year deals. 

The Mets want to reach 2025 with as little on their books as possible, outside of the half-dozen core players they already have signed through that time.

Scenario No. 2: The Mets do not sign Yamamoto
There’s a chance that even Cohen’s best offer might not be enough for Yamamoto, who is being wooed aggressively by just about every big-market team in baseball. Yamamoto has now had two in-person meetings with Cohen, sources confirmed: one in Japan in early December, and another last weekend at Cohen’s home. But will it be enough? 

If not, the Mets’ goal of putting a winning team on the field in 2024 will become more difficult, mostly because they’ll need to acquire two full-time starting pitchers instead of one. That could cause them to shop more aggressively on the trade market, while also continuing to scour free agency for the types of starters noted above. It shouldn’t change much in terms of the types of outfield and bullpen help the Mets will pursue. But in the rotation, it will limit New York’s ceiling.

It’s worth noting that although the Mets would be happy to give Yamamoto a long-term, nine-figure deal, they don’t appear to feel similarly about Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery -- widely considered the next-best starters on the open market. Those pitchers are five years older than Yamamoto, without the same long-term upside. Given that the Mets still consider 2024 a bridge year of sorts, Snell and Montgomery don’t make as much sense. So, as The Athletic noted in a story last weekend, the team intends to be careful about signing such older, riskier pitchers to long-term contracts. 

In short, if the Mets don’t land Yamamoto, expect them to acquire two more pitchers from the non-Snell, non-Montgomery bucket, plus an outfielder and a couple more relievers. The goal would be to build a threatening roster in 2024 without sacrificing much financial or roster flexibility in 2025 and beyond.