Pipeline Inbox: Where would Ethan Holliday rank today? More prospect projections

November 15th, 2024

The Arizona Fall League is so much fun and just two games remain. The Salt River Rafters and Scottsdale Scorpions meet in a play-in contest Friday that will stream live on MLB.com at 8:30 p.m. ET/6:30 p.m. local. The winner meets the two-time defending champion Surprise Saguaros for the title Saturday at 8 p.m. ET/6 p.m. local, with that game broadcast live on MLB Network and streaming on MLB.com.

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If you're ranking them today, where would Ethan Holliday and/or Jace LaViollette land on the [Top 100 Prospects list]? -- @FanOfAllTeams on X

There’s talent in every Draft, but to this point no one in the 2025 class has asserted himself like Travis Bazzana, Charlie Condon and Jac Caglianone did last year. Or like Paul Skenes, Dylan Crews, Wyatt Langford, Walker Jenkins or Max Clark did in 2023.

MLB Pipeline will release a 2025 Draft Top 100 in December, with Texas A&M outfielder LaViolette likely ranking atop the college crop and Stillwater (Okla.) HS shortstop Holliday headlining the high schoolers. LaViolette fits the classic right-field profile with his prodigious power and strong arm. Holliday has much more physicality and a higher ceiling than his older brother Jackson had at the same stage -- and Jackson went No. 1 overall in 2022.

Yet both come with concerns. LaViolette struck out at a 24 percent clip last spring, while Holliday struggled more than expected on the summer showcase circuit (as did Jackson).

Looking for comparable profiles on our professional Top 100 Prospects list, LaViolette resembles former Texas A&M teammate Braden Montgomery, who went 12th overall in the 2024 Draft to the Red Sox and probably would have gone higher if he hadn’t broken his right ankle on a bad slide in the NCAA super regionals. Montgomery slots in at No. 54 and LaViolette would fit in slightly behind him.

Holliday has some similarities to White Sox shortstop Colson Montgomery, who ranks No. 37. I’d put him about 10 spots behind Montgomery for now.

Does that mean Holliday will take the top spot on that upcoming Draft Top 100? We’ll find out in a few weeks.

Seems like Kevin McGonigle’s bat may be a lock to get him to the bigs … but what’s the likelihood he sticks at SS? -- @7JayP

Drafted 37th overall by the Tigers in 2023 and currently the organization's No. 3 prospect and MLB's No. 31, McGonigle is one of the best young hitting prospects in the game. As a 19-year-old in his first full pro season, he slashed .309/.401/.452 in 74 games between two Class A stops before breaking the hamate bone in his right hand. He has a sweet left-handed stroke and advanced control of the strike zone, and he should grow into 20-homer power.

While he’s a better shortstop than Detroit incumbent Trey Sweeney, McGonigle isn’t a lock to stay at the position. His quickness and arm strength are more average than plus, though his fine instincts help him play above his tools. While he’s a capable defender at short and could spend a few years there in the big leagues, he’s probably more of a second baseman in the long run.

Who has the better long-term outlook: Josue DePaula or Zyhir Hope? -- @Bleedinblue1

The Dodgers are loaded with intriguing outfield prospects who were teenagers during the 2024 season: De Paula, Hope, Eduardo Quintero, Kendall George, Ching-Hsien Ko, Arnaldo Lantigua, Jared Elkins, Brendan Tunink. De Paula and Hope have very different profiles.

Signed for $397,500 out of the Dominican Republic in 2022, De Paula (currently LAD No. 2 and MLB No. 48) batted .268/.404/.405 with 30 extra-base hits, 27 steals and 84 walks in 107 games between Single-A and High-A. He’s such a gifted hitter. He features a smooth left-handed swing, recognizes pitches and makes better swing decisions better than most players his age. He’s a potential batting champion with at least 25-homer power, though the rest of his tools are fringy to average and he projects as a left fielder or DH.

Acquired from the Cubs in January’s Michael Busch trade and currently ranked No. 11 in the LAD system, Hope hit .287/.415/.490 with nine homers and eight steals in 54 Single-A games while missing three months with a stress fracture in his rib. He’s less advanced at the plate than De Paula but more toolsy with plus raw power, double-plus speed and well above-average arm strength. He could develop into a 30-30 center fielder and has been as electrifying as any player in the Arizona Fall League, where he hit the longest measured home run (470 feet) of the season and stood out with his center-field defense.

Who will be better? De Paula has the higher floor while Hope has the higher ceiling. De Paula has plenty of upside, too, and I’d bet on his bat.

For the prospects off their team's Top 30 Prospects List, and being part of the AFL, which prospects do you believe will be on those lists by Spring Training next year, and where would you reasonably rank them? -- @StevieDAles97

We discussed this topic on the latest Pipeline Podcast and the most obvious choice is Yankees infielder Caleb Durbin, who has run wild in the Arizona Fall League the last two seasons. A solid baserunner with tremendous instincts on the bases, he has set league records for steals in a season (29 in 24 games) and career (50 in 47 contests) and twice tied the mark for swipes in a game (four).

Durbin controls the strike zone while making regular line-drive contact and delivered a career-high 10 homers while slashing .287/.388/.451 in 82 Triple-A games this season. He’s also a versatile defender who has started games at second base, third base, shortstop, left field and center field in both Triple-A and the AFL in 2024. Earlier this week, Yankees manager Aaron Boone said he expected Durbin to play a significant role in the big leagues in 2025.

On the podcast, Jonathan Mayo suggested three other candidates. Reds reliever Luis Mey has thrown the 34 hardest recorded pitches in the Fall League this season, topping out at 102 mph. Pirates outfielder Sammy Siani’s tools got him drafted in the supplemental first round in 2019 and he’s making encouraging progress with the bat, while Samy Natera (Angels) has been one of the most impressive southpaws in the AFL.

Durbin and Siani look more like complementary players than regulars on a contender, Mey is strictly a bullpen option with little history of throwing strikes and Natera is more middle reliever than starter. They all should make Top 30s but factor in the bottom third of those lists when we update them early next year.