5 questions facing Mariners in a big offseason

October 8th, 2024

This story was excerpted from Daniel Kramer's Mariners Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

After a disappointing finish to a season that started so strong, the Mariners face another huge offseason.

Here are five questions they must answer in the coming months.

1. Payroll will increase -- but by how much?

John Stanton confirmed to MLB.com that payroll will increase from its roughly $145 million figure in 2024, but the Mariners’ chairman and managing general partner did not specify by how much. Separately, president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto indicated that a bulk of the increase will happen in-house via salary raises, with most of it coming through arbitration among the club's young core.

Currently in the range of $125 million to $130 million, based on unofficial projections, the Mariners conceivably have room to make a few notable additions. But what is clear is that they won’t shop at the top of the free-agent market with the likes of Juan Soto, Pete Alonso and Alex Bregman.

2. Who could (would) they trade?

The Mariners' “draft, develop and trade” model was a prominent topic of Stanton’s conversation with MLB.com, and it figures to be in play again this offseason. But in order to get, the Mariners will have to give.

The way that Dipoto spoke about J.P. Crawford -- with confidence in a bounceback after a wildly disappointing season -- was similar to how he spoke last winter of Ty France, whom the club wound up retaining before a steep decline mid-summer.

“We will get a better version of J.P. next year,” Dipoto said. “He hasn't had his greatest year, but he's shown us over time how good he can be, and my guess is we'll get a better version next year.”

Dipoto was also clear in saying the Mariners won’t part with any of their young starters in Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo, but Luis Castillo could possibly be moved, especially since doing so would get his $24.15 million salary for each of the next three years off the books. That high price could also limit the loftiness of a potential return, though, and Castillo carries a full no-trade clause through the end of 2025, meaning he’d have to approve any deal.

Either one of Mitch Garver or Mitch Haniger could be in play, too, but moving the Mitches would likely force the Mariners to eat a chunk of the combined $27.5 million those veterans are due.

Even with a limited opportunity as the backup catcher, Garver has a clearer role to contribute. The outfield of Randy Arozarena, Julio Rodríguez and Victor Robles is set, with Luke Raley as the first reinforcement, leaving Haniger, who had just 30 plate appearances in September, with little runway for playing time.

3. How much bullpen help do they need?

This need became clear down the stretch, when Andrés Muñoz was limited due to elbow inflammation, making just eight appearances in September, and Trade Deadline addition Yimi García suffered a season-ending elbow injury. Gregory Santos, a big addition before Spring Training, was limited to just eight outings in an injury-plagued season, so he'll come with question marks in 2025.

The bright side was rookie Troy Taylor appearing to be a legitimate piece for Seattle's bullpen, and the club is optimistic that Matt Brash could return from Tommy John surgery in June. But the Mariners -- who didn't quite unearth an unheralded relief arm this season as in years past -- could use more depth.

4. Will Edgar be back?

The answer appears to be yes, but what Edgar Martinez's role looks like is arguably the Mariners’ most fascinating storyline heading into the offseason. Stanton said that the club “would do backflips” to keep the Hall of Famer involved with the coaching staff, while Dipoto added that the front office will “develop a creative situation” to support that effort. Adding Martinez as hitting coach was manager Dan Wilson’s first order of business upon taking over on Aug. 22.

Many of Seattle’s players also credited Martinez’s simple messaging for their September turnaround.

5. Which prospects could contribute?

First baseman Tyler Locklear (the Mariners’ No. 6 prospect per MLB Pipeline) showed flashes of promise last year, but he was sent back to the Minors for more seasoning after the club acquired Justin Turner at the Deadline. Locklear will get as strong a look as any in spring, especially given Seattle's need at first.

Cole Young (No. 2) could be nearing his MLB debut in 2025, and the fact that the Mariners have uncertainty at second base -- where he transitioned to last year -- adds more intrigue.

Logan Evans (No. 10) soared through the system, and the Mariners even considered him for a relief role down the stretch before transitioning him back to starting. His versatile pitch mix and advanced acumen could see him take another big step in 2025.