New hitting approach could be key to Mariners' breakthrough

December 27th, 2024

This story was excerpted from Daniel Kramer’s Mariners Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

SEATTLE -- Among hopeful contenders for the 2025 season, the Mariners have been one of MLB’s most quiet this offseason, as they still look to round out their roster by adding -- preferably -- at least two infield bats to supplement their position-player nucleus.

Yet as the free-agent and trade markets finally gain steam -- and with some players already on the move who might’ve been strong fits -- the reality is that Seattle’s success next season will hinge on the group that’s already here.

“There are so many things to like about what we have,” Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto said at the MLB Winter Meetings earlier this month, “and it's easy to focus sometimes on the thing that we don't.

“I think the misnomer, or maybe the thing I don't think is fair, is that we're not eons away. We are one of the better teams in the league. We go into each year forecast as a playoff team, and for three of the last four years, we've come up short. That's on us. We need to do more. We need to figure out how to take that last step.”

The “last step” that Dipoto mentioned is breaking through to October, as they did in 2022. Their well-chronicled shortcomings have almost exclusively been tied to an inconsistent offense, especially within their home environment in cooler months.

And therein lies the biggest question that the 2025 Mariners face: Can they finally solve that riddle? It’s an incredibly complex quandary -- going beyond personnel, and to coaching and approach -- but also one they believe they’re in the process of solving.

The most glaring indicator of such is how they’ve assembled their coaching staff under manager Dan Wilson, who enters his first full season -- specifically by handing the keys to their entire hitting program to Edgar Martinez, who transitioned from interim hitting coach to senior director of hitting strategy.

Martinez and Wilson then hired longtime Braves hitting coach Kevin Seitzer to the same role in Seattle, who brings aligned philosophies to his superiors that were a pivotal part in the Mariners beginning to turn things around over the season’s final five weeks.

“He's like Midwest Edgar,” Dipoto said of Seitzer, who grew up in Eastern Illinois and spent much of his MLB playing career in Kansas City. “He thinks that. He talks it. He believes in all the things that Edgar believes in.”

Players preached the importance of Martinez’s simplistic messaging, which Seitzer echoes, and which carries an emphasis on staying to the middle and opposite fields. After Martinez took over on Aug. 23, the Mariners’ batted ball rate in those directions jumped from 45.8% to 58.5%, per Baseball Savant, and their batting average on those balls was .317, sixth-highest in MLB in that final stretch.

Seattle’s strikeout rates from before/after the change were 27.7% (worst in MLB) and 23.7% (right around league average), a notable dip that was perhaps not coincidental.

The posterboy for the adjustments was the player that the Mariners need at his best more than anyone: , who finished the year with a slash line of .313/.364/.537 (.902 OPS) and nine of his 20 homers.

“Having had some conversations with Julio here in the offseason myself,” Wilson said, “I know that he really appreciated Gar and the message that he brought. ... I think he enjoys using the middle of the field and taking that kind of an approach. I think it's been a good match.”

Rodriguez will anchor an outfield that the Mariners think can be one of the sport’s most athletic, supplemented by sparkplug Victor Robles and slugger Randy Arozarena, with Luke Raley fitting in when he’s not playing first base. That group should comprise the meat of the top of the lineup, too, along with Cal Raleigh, who’s emerged as the game’s best power-hitting catcher.

The Mariners are also banking on a bounceback from J.P. Crawford, who was limited to 105 games due to injuries and hit .202 with a .625 OPS when on the field, after a career year in 2023.

This is the position-player core whose successes -- and potential failures -- should determine if they can take that “last step” in ’25.