Why Conforto could benefit from change of scenery in LA

3:46 PM UTC

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The Dodgers picked up a left-handed-hitting outfielder this past week -- no, not that one -- who stands to benefit from a change of scenery.

Los Angeles signed to a one-year, $17 million deal on Tuesday, adding clarity to the outfield picture now that Tommy Edman is expected to get the bulk of his playing time in center field as a ripple effect of Mookie Betts' move to shortstop. Conforto is capable of playing both corner outfield spots, though all of his appearances in the field last season were in left.

Speaking at the Winter Meetings in Dallas, president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman revealed that the Dodgers' interest in Conforto goes back further than this offseason.

"He’s a guy that we reached out on at the Trade Deadline last year," Friedman said. "Respected him from afar for a while. It’s not often for a guy that they’re both a floor-raiser with ceiling."

Conforto spent his last two seasons with San Francisco after missing a year recovering from shoulder surgery, and while he swung an above-average bat (108 OPS+) from 2023-24, he never quite reached the same heights as in his first seven seasons with the Mets (124 OPS+).

But a look under the hood reveals that Conforto, who turns 32 on March 1, could be a strong under-the-radar pickup, especially because he will no longer play his home games at Oracle Park.

In 2024, Conforto posted a .632 OPS at home compared with .852 on the road. He hit 17 of his 20 homers -- and notched 51 of his 66 RBIs -- away from Oracle Park. In just about every offensive stat, Conforto was a far more productive player on the road.

The Giants' home ballpark is notoriously tough for hitters, especially lefties. The distance to the right-field foul pole is a mere 309 feet, with a high fence, but Triples Alley in right-center is 415 feet away from the plate. Conforto isn't strictly a pull hitter -- he's hovered around league average in that regard -- but he's shown more power to right field in his career.

That's not to say that playing more games at Dodger Stadium is a slam dunk, as Conforto owns a .588 OPS in 30 games at his new home field.

Digging deeper, Conforto reliably hit the ball hard in 2024. With the caveat that expected statistics are not predictive, some particularly encouraging numbers were his .350 xwOBA and .479 xSLG, which ranked in the 85th and 89th percentiles, respectively, among qualified Major Leaguers. That speaks to his overall skill and quality of contact.

Add in the fact that Conforto ranked in the 81st percentile in chase rate, and there's a lot to like about how he has progressed since returning from his shoulder injury. His 2024 season wasn't flashy, but there were moments when he looked like his past self, especially in the last two months.

Interestingly, last year was an outlier in that Conforto had reverse splits, albeit in a much smaller sample. He posted a .724 OPS in 382 plate appearances vs. right-handers compared with a .886 OPS in 106 plate appearances vs. lefties.

"I don't believe Michael Conforto is now a better hitter vs. left than right," general manager Brandon Gomes said, "but I do think with his swing and his path, there was some real signal that you can buy into that he he will handle left-handers in a better way than he historically has, and he still will maintain a very high level vs. right, especially when you look at what he did on the road and some of the under-the-hood stuff."

Expect Conforto to hit somewhere in the middle of the order, where he should have ample opportunity to drive in runs. He may not be the biggest addition to the outfield this offseason, as the Dodgers still have interest in bringing back Teoscar Hernández -- but his potential to put together impact at-bats should not be overlooked.