What's ahead for Braves in the new year?
This story was excerpted from Mark Bowman's Braves Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
ATLANTA -- With the arrival of the New Year, we are just a little more than a month from the start of Spring Training. This latest newsletter will give you another chance to debate what we might see from the Braves during the remainder of the offseason and into the regular season.
What free agent makes the most sense to sign?
Veteran starter Nathan Eovaldi was a potential target before he signed a three-year, $75 million deal with the Rangers. Outfielder Max Kepler seemed like a good fit before he agreed to a one-year, $10 million deal with the Phillies. The Braves have understandably looked at other options, but they might eventually have to come back to the 41-year-old Charlie Morton, who has made it clear he’s open to pitching at least one more season. Morton has been a key piece of Atlanta’s rotation each of the past four seasons, and he has aided the development of young starters like Spencer Strider and Spencer Schwellenbach. He might no longer be a frontline starter, but with a one-year deal worth approximately $10 million, he could provide the Braves some needed insurance in their rotation. He has made 30-plus starts each of the past six 162-game seasons.
Who is this year’s most likely breakout player?
Jarred Kelenic has been a breakout candidate each of the past few years. Will this be the year he finally lives up to the potential envisioned when he ranked as MLB’s No. 4 prospect as recently as 2021? The 25-year-old outfielder hit 15 homers and enjoyed a couple of good stretches last year, but he ended the season with a .679 OPS and was relegated to a bench role by the end of August. Though he debuted in ’21, the talented athlete is still young. If he finally finds some consistency this year, Kelenic might show why the Braves were willing to spend approximately $17 million to secure five years of potential control last year.
Who is a prospect to watch this year?
Nearly two years removed from Tommy John surgery, Blake Burkhalter will have a chance to show why his former Auburn pitching coach and former Braves pitcher Tim Hudson believed the hurler was close to being a big league-ready reliever when he was drafted No. 76 overall in 2022. The right-hander, Atlanta’s No. 19 prospect, posted a 2.14 ERA over his first nine starts for High-A Rome this year and then seemed to fatigue over his final five starts. Drue Hackenberg (No. 9), Jhancarlos Lara (No. 14) and Luis De Avila (No. 15) are other pitching prospects to keep an eye on, especially if the Braves don’t find external options to fill bullpen voids. But for now, Burkhalter is the only member of this group who hasn’t produced a concerning walk rate.
What is a prediction for 2025?
Matt Olson hit a franchise-record 54 home runs in 2023 and then belted just 29 while tallying a similar number of at-bats in ’24. A quick look at his Baseball Savant page shows he didn’t handle fastballs as well as in the previous two seasons. His barrel rate was also noticeably lower and his chase rate was up, but he slashed .293/.390/.576 while hitting 14 homers and constructing a .966 OPS over his final 56 games. His 14.6 at-bats per home run during this span didn’t match the 11.3 mark he produced the previous season. But the strong finish created reason to optimistically predict another big power assault in 2025.
What do the Braves need to do before Spring Training?
The primary objective is to determine where to emphasize improving the roster. The outfield, rotation and bullpen could benefit from additions. Is it best to add another bat while Ronald Acuña Jr. misses the season’s first two months? Or would it be better to focus on adding a starter to a rotation that will be without Strider for the season’s first month? Even when Strider returns from elbow surgery, how long will it take him to regain his form? Can Chris Sale, Reynaldo López and Schwellenbach all do what they did last season? How do you replace the valuable innings the injured Joe Jiménez and free agent A.J. Minter contributed in 2024? And the primary question is, how will the Braves answer all of these questions?