15 pitchers who could win a Cy Young Award in 2025
Who will be the best pitcher in each league in 2025?
Last season, there was no question that the Tigers' Tarik Skubal and the Braves' Chris Sale surpassed every other arm. Both claimed a Triple Crown en route to winning their first Cy Young Award.
Those two left-handers might have their sights set on staging a repeat, but there are plenty of pitchers looking to etch their names into the history books this year.
With that in mind, five MLB.com writers got together to select this season's Cy Young Award favorites in each league and highlight five dark-horse candidates as well. Here are their selections.
American League favorites
1. Tarik Skubal, LHP, Tigers
2024 Cy Young finish: 1st
Skubal is the easy No. 1 pick here. Besides the fact that he is a 28-year-old ace at the peak of his powers and coming off of a Triple Crown campaign, Skubal’s path to back-to-back Cy Young Awards looks especially clear when you consider his top competition for the honor.
Last year’s two other AL Cy Young finalists -- 35-year-old Seth Lugo and closer Emmanuel Clase -- seem unlikely to repeat their career years. Perennial contender Corbin Burnes has returned to the National League. The 2023 winner, Gerrit Cole, will miss the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Jacob deGrom and Garrett Crochet have some questions regarding their workloads this season, and it should be noted that only two starting pitchers -- Rick Sutcliffe in 1984 and Burnes in 2021 -- won their league’s Cy Young Award with fewer than 170 innings pitched over a full season. (Sutcliffe’s award-worthy 150 1/3 innings with the Cubs came after a midseason trade from Cleveland.)
That’s not to say there are zero threats to Skubal’s throne. But there appears to be a gap between him and the rest of the AL.
-- Brian Murphy
2. Cole Ragans, LHP, Royals
2024 Cy Young finish: 4th
Ragans flashed ace potential after being traded from the Rangers to the Royals for veteran reliever Aroldis Chapman in June 2023, setting the stage for a stellar ’24 campaign that saw the lefty fully blossom into one of baseball’s top arms.
Ragans ranked fourth in whiff rate (32.0%) and ninth in strikeout rate (29.3%) among starters who faced at least 500 batters in 2024, showing the ability to consistently dominate big league hitters with his deep arsenal. Having pitched to a 3.00 ERA with 312 K’s over 258 innings in a Royals uniform, the 27-year-old enters 2025 with a great chance to become the franchise’s first Cy Young winner since Zack Greinke in ’09.
-- Thomas Harrigan
3. Jacob deGrom, RHP, Rangers
2024 Cy Young finish: Did not receive votes
deGrom is a Cy Young favorite in any season he starts healthy. That's because a healthy deGrom is the most dominant pitcher on the planet. He might not be the Rangers’ Opening Day starter this season, but he’ll be in the rotation from Game 1. And that’s all deGrom needs.
His three-start return from Tommy John surgery last September was all we needed to see to know he still has his Cy Young stuff. Now he just needs to pitch a full season. The last two times he did that -- 2018 and '19 -- he won back-to-back NL Cy Youngs.
Of course, that was six years ago now. Picking deGrom for the Cy Young is a big bet on his health. But he is simply the best pitcher on this list. And if he can win his third Cy Young in 2025, this could be the season that makes deGrom a Hall of Famer.
-- David Adler
4. Garrett Crochet, LHP, Red Sox
2024 Cy Young finish: Did not receive votes
A year ago with the White Sox, Crochet was attempting a conversion from relief to starting. The lefty had come out of the bullpen in all 72 of his previous Major League appearances (including 13 in 2023, after returning from Tommy John surgery). Mission accomplished. While his 3.58 ERA from 2024 won’t wow anyone, Crochet finished first in strikeout rate (35.1%) and strikeout-minus-walk rate (29.6%) among those with 140-plus innings, as well as third in FIP (2.69) behind Cy Young Award winners Chris Sale and Tarik Skubal.
Expectations are much greater for Crochet in 2025, especially following an offseason trade from the 121-loss White Sox to the up-and-coming Red Sox. But this is a pitcher with the wipeout stuff to handle that transition -- much like Sale back in 2017 (when he was the AL Cy runner-up). Assuming Crochet can add another 30-plus innings to his ledger, don’t be surprised if he’s a serious contender.
-- Andrew Simon
5. Logan Gilbert, RHP, Mariners
2024 Cy Young finish: 6th
Seattle’s rotation is so good that you can make a legitimate case for five starters being Cy Young Award candidates. Gilbert looks poised to be the best of the bunch in 2025 after a stellar ‘24 season that saw him finish sixth in Cy Young Award voting, thanks to 3.23 ERA and 220 strikeouts in an MLB-leading 208 2/3 innings.
There isn’t much that Gilbert doesn’t do well. You can bank on him providing bulk -- he’s tossed at least 185 innings in each of the past three seasons -- and he just produced career-best strikeout and walk numbers. Gilbert’s career-high 27.4% strikeout rate ranked in the 80th percentile among qualified pitchers, while his career-low 4.6% walk rate was in the 95th percentile. Entering his age-28 season, Gilbert is smack in the middle of his prime and has the quality and quantity you’re looking for from a Cy Young Award-caliber pitcher.
-- Brent Maguire
National League favorites
1. Paul Skenes, RHP, Pirates
2024 Cy Young finish: 3rd
The 2024 NL Rookie of the Year may have captured the Cy Young Award as well if he had begun last year in the big leagues. Despite not debuting until May 11, Skenes still finished as the seventh-most valuable pitcher by run value. His 1.96 ERA was the best by any rookie with at least 20 starts in the Live Ball Era (since 1920), while his 33.1% strikeout rate and 26.8% K-BB rate trailed only Garrett Crochet among pitchers with 130 innings.
At just 22 years old, Skenes harnesses six pitches, none of which allowed an expected wOBA better than .283 last year (league average was .315). He's now adding to that arsenal with a cutter that has already gone viral this spring. Looking even more dangerous, Skenes could join Dwight Gooden (1985) as the only Rookie of the Year pitchers to claim a Cy Young the following season (though, of course, Fernando Valenzuela is the only pitcher to win both in the same season, in 1981). Maybe Skenes will be a factor in the MVP race, too.
-- Brian Murphy
2. Zack Wheeler, RHP, Phillies
2024 Cy Young finish: 2nd
Wheeler’s performance since joining the Phillies ahead of the 2020 season puts him squarely among the game’s elite pitchers. In fact, he leads all hurlers with 24.7 WAR (per FanGraphs) since the beginning of 2020, posting a 2.94 ERA with 899 strikeouts and 187 walks over 829 1/3 innings in that span.
The Cy Young Award has eluded him so far, with narrow misses in both 2021 and ’24. But after finishing last season with personal bests in ERA (2.57) and WHIP (0.96), as well as the second-highest strikeout rate (28.5%) of his career, Wheeler is once again on the short list of the top NL Cy contenders entering 2025.
-- Thomas Harrigan
3. Chris Sale, LHP, Braves
2024 Cy Young finish: 1st
Someone has to pick the reigning NL Cy Young winner. Sale could easily have been the No. 1 pick here. Skenes is coming for his crown, yes … but that crown is a Triple Crown. Sale just put up a 2.38 ERA, 225-strikeout season and looked like the Sale of a decade ago. His crown won’t be easy to pry away.
Sale is one of the most electric aces of his generation, he’s recaptured his old magic with the Braves, and he finally has that elusive first Cy Young. Why not be the first pitcher since deGrom in 2018 and ’19 to go back-to-back? There’s no reason to believe Sale’s resurgence last year won’t continue into 2025.
-- David Adler
4. Corbin Burnes, RHP, D-backs
2024 Cy Young finish: 5th
Burnes has received Cy Young votes in five straight seasons since establishing himself as a Major League starter. After winning the NL Cy in 2021, he finished seventh, eighth and fifth over the past three years. That makes this a pretty safe pick -- as far as pitchers go, at least. Burnes, who just landed a six-year deal from the D-backs, figures to at least be in the conversation again.
The question is: Can the 30-year-old, coming off a few years of steadily declining K rates, regain an elite level of per-inning dominance? Well, it’s possible he already did. Last September, he posted a 1.20 ERA over five starts, striking out 31 batters in 30 innings, after making some adjustments to his signature pitch (the cutter) and re-adding an effective sweeper to his arsenal. If Peak Burnes shows up in the desert this year, watch out.
-- Andrew Simon
5. Blake Snell, LHP, Dodgers
2024 Cy Young finish: Did not receive votes
Inked to a five-year, $182 million deal over the offseason, Snell could lead a starting rotation that may very well be the best unit in the Majors.
Snell’s Cy Young case is complex. Yes, he’s taken home the award twice (2018 with Tampa Bay, 2023 with San Diego), but those are also the only two years in his career where he’s cleared 150 innings in a season. What’s not in doubt is his pure ability, which was once again on full display last year after a rocky start with the Giants. From the start of July through the rest of the season, Snell had a 1.23 ERA and 114 strikeouts in 80 1/3 innings, including a no-hitter against the Reds on Aug. 2.
Snell wants to be a workhorse for the Dodgers this year and if he can do that, he’ll attempt to become just the 12th pitcher with three Cy Young Awards.
-- Brent Maguire
Dark horses
Our "dark horse" picks had to meet two criteria:
- No previous Cy Young Award wins
- Finished outside the top 10 in 2022-24 Cy Young voting
1. Joe Ryan, RHP, Twins
Key stat: 23.7% K-BB rate since the start of 2023
When looking for a Cy Young candidate, you generally want to find a pitcher who can rack up a good number of strikeouts without issuing too many walks. After all, Chris Sale and Tarik Skubal were the top two qualified hurlers in strikeout-minus-walk rate last season. The 28-year-old Ryan has had that skill throughout his career, as evidenced by that K-BB rate mentioned above. His 23.7% mark ranks fifth among all pitchers with at least 190 innings over the past two seasons.
Ryan also has a top-shelf pitch in his repertoire. His four-seam fastball, which he threw nearly half of the time in 2024, limited hitters to a .191 average and a .378 slugging percentage. Its +15 run value last year ranked sixth among pitchers who had at least 250 plate appearances ending on four-seamers. Ryan's four-seamer has accrued a +49 run value over the past three seasons, trailing only the heater that belongs to the Mariners' Luis Castillo (+50).
If he effectively mixes that fastball with his splitter and sweeper, Ryan can be a Cy-worthy starter.
-- Brian Murphy
2. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, RHP, Dodgers
Key stat: 10.5 K/9 in 2024
Throughout Yamamoto’s first season with the Dodgers, we got flashes of the ace who was the best pitcher in Japan. Hopefully, this is the season we get Yamamoto at full power.
We know Yamamoto is a Cy Young-caliber pitcher because he won the Japanese version of the Cy Young (the Sawamura Award) three straight times before he came to MLB -- and then his arsenal played just as well in the Majors. Yamamoto’s 10.5 strikeouts per nine innings last season was better than his 9.2 career mark in Nippon Professional Baseball and better than all but one of his seasons with the Orix Buffaloes.
Pay attention to how Yamamoto punctuated his rookie season: by dominating the Yankees in Game 2 of the World Series. He was at his finest in the most important game of the year, on the biggest stage. That’s the Yamamoto we want to see for all of 2025.
-- David Adler
3. Hunter Brown, RHP, Astros
Key stat: T-4th in fWAR among AL pitchers after April
A few rough April starts put Brown in a deep hole in 2024, especially one on April 11 in Kansas City in which he gave up a stunning nine earned runs while recording only two outs. Despite immediately turning his season around after that point -- thanks in part to adding an excellent sinker to his repertoire -- he didn’t push his ERA below 6.00 until June 8 and below 4.00 until Aug. 5. But make no mistake: This was one of the best pitchers in baseball for the last five months of his age-25 season and was excellent in one playoff start as well.
Sinker now in hand, Brown has a deep arsenal that keeps the ball on the ground and limits quality of contact. If he can avoid such a rough start to 2025, it’s not hard to see the 26-year-old ascending to Cy Young candidate status in his third full season.
-- Andrew Simon
4. Bailey Ober, RHP, Twins
Key stat: 3.22 expected ERA
Ober has quietly blossomed into a middle-of-the-rotation stalwart with the Twins and is coming off a season where he had a 3.98 ERA in 178 2/3 innings. There might be an even higher level for the 6-foot-9 starter entering his age-29 season.
Based on expected ERA -- which looks at a pitcher’s quality and quantity of contact allowed -- Ober’s 3.22 mark was 12th-best among 108 pitchers who faced at least 500 batters last season. That was due to his excellent strikeout rate (26.9%), walk rate (6.1%) and ability to limit hard contact (83rd percentile hard-hit rate).
Despite a 91.7 mph average fastball, Ober’s size means he has an elite extension rate (97th percentile), making everything jump on hitters much quicker than expected. If Ober throws close to 180 innings again and is closer to his expected 2024 ERA rather than his actual ERA, he could earn some serious Cy Young Award consideration.
-- Brent Maguire
5. Jared Jones, RHP, Pirates
Key stat: 30.2% whiff rate in 2024
Paul Skenes may be one of the Cy Young frontrunners in the NL entering 2025, but don’t forget about the other Pirates hurler who impressed as a rookie last season. That would be Jones, who arrived in the Majors looking like a clone of the Braves’ Spencer Strider, using his upper-90s four-seam fastball and power slider to give hitters fits.
Over his first nine starts in 2024, Jones registered a 2.89 ERA with the fourth-largest gap (27.2 percentage points) between his strikeout (30.6%) and walk rates (3.4%) among qualifying pitchers. Although his season went sideways after that, the 23-year-old’s early dominance offers reason to believe he can give Pittsburgh another Cy Young contender this year, especially if his new sinker becomes a reliable complement to his four-seamer and slider.
-- Thomas Harrigan
