Inbox: How many homers will Tigers hit in '19?

Beat reporter Jason Beck answers questions from fans

March 27th, 2019

The Tigers will open the season in Toronto for the first time in a decade, and the third time in 16 years. Tigers-Blue Jays is one of the best baseball rivalries nobody knows about, in my opinion, because of the close proximity between the two cities. It’s basically a driving trip (or an awesome train trip, if you want to do that), and it reminds you how great of a division rivalry this used to be. The 401 Series would have a nice ring to it.

So after seven weeks in Florida, I arrived home, unpacked my bags of warm-weather gear from the flight, repacked those same bags with cold-weather gear, and threw them into the car. In between, let’s open up the mailbag one more time, too.

It’s a better lineup than last year, in my opinion. 's presence plays a large part in that, but I also think 's addition and Christin Stewart's arrival are upgrades. The top third of the order has the chance to be pretty good with Harrison,  and Cabrera. The challenge is after that. Can some combination of ,  and Stewart provide adequate production in the middle part of the order, an area where Victor Martinez was an experienced run producer? And what can the Tigers get out of the bottom third, an area that has been a trouble spot for them for years?

They’ll hit more, I would expect. It’s a question of how much, and that depends in part on health. Add up the individual player PECOTA projections from Baseball Prospectus, and the Tigers project to be somewhere around 150, led by Stewart at 21. No other Tiger projects to hit 20 by the PECOTA system; Cabrera projects at 17, while Castellanos projects at 19 and Mikie Mahtook surprisingly projects at 15. But that assumes health, and it also includes Castellanos as a Tiger for the full season.

In the near term, at least, a contract extension for Castellanos would be an alternative to a trade, rather than a vehicle for it. I’d expect Castellanos would want some assurances of stability rather than more of the uncertainty he has dealt with for the last season-plus. Moreover, given how differently teams look at defensive metrics, how teams value Castellanos contract-wise would probably vary widely. If the Tigers were to trade him anytime soon, they’d be better off letting another team set a price on a potential new contract.

It’s not just you. As bullpen usage has climbed, both in innings covered and pitchers used, roster makeup has tilted towards more pitchers. A 13-man pitching staff is more common than it used to be, and few teams ever go below 12. Not long ago, that tilting point was between 11 and 12. As benches have become smaller, the importance of versatility within it has become larger.

The best example I can use is Omar Infante, who played second and third base, shortstop and outfield -- including center -- for the Tigers in 2007, the final season of his first stint with the club. At the time, former manager Jim Leyland said he’d be a good National League player because of the need for versatility there with pinch-hitters and double-switches. Fast forward a dozen years, and every team in every league wants a player like that.

Beau Burrows said when Spring Training began that his goal is to get to Detroit by the end of the year. Of the trio you mentioned, I think Burrows has the best chance. Though he didn’t get called over to any Major League games, his strong camp drew positive reviews, and pitched himself into a likely rotation spot at Triple-A Toledo, where the domino effect from Michael Fulmer’s season-ending injury is a void for the Mud Hens. The Tigers will need to add Burrows to the 40-man roster next offseason anyway to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft, unlike Manning. Perez is on the 40-man roster already, but the Tigers are going to be cautious with his progression to try to lower the injury risk.

I expect Matt Moore to get a large amount of patience, similar to Mike Fiers, who had a 4.78 ERA around Memorial Day last year and then put it together in June and July. Francisco Liriano had similar patience, though his struggles really happened later in the year.

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Senior Reporter Jason Beck has covered the Tigers for MLB.com since 2002.