What to watch at Winter Meetings: Draft Lottery, Rule 5 and more

December 6th, 2024

The baseball world is about to focus its offseason gaze on Dallas as the Winter Meetings arrive in the Lone Star State on Sunday ready to set the Hot Stove aflame.

While the focus of the Winter Meetings is usually on the Major League happenings, there will be plenty for followers of prospects and farm systems to track at this year's meetings, as well as serious implications tied to the third Draft Lottery.

Here’s the MLB Pipeline guide to the Winter Meetings:

Trades

Buzz always abounds at the Winter Meetings, but they aren't always the place where actual trades go down, and that's been true the past few years. Last year, Shohei Ohtani's future dominated the meetings, stalling trade markets until later in the winter. Juan Soto's mega-free agency this time around could have a similar effect, but if he signs soon, the trickle-down effect could mean a bunch of teams that missed out begin wheeling and dealing in Dallas.

Garrett Crochet, Nolan Arenado and Alec Bohm are some of the major names popping up in trade rumors, with as many as six to eight teams reportedly in the sweepstakes for Crochet, the dynamic White Sox left-hander.

As Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo discussed on the latest MLB Pipeline podcast, the Orioles, Reds, Mariners, Cubs, Dodgers and Tigers have the prospects to swing big deals this year.

Draft Lottery

In what's become a highly anticipated mainstay of the offseason, the third Draft Lottery will take place Tuesday at 5:30 p.m. ET. It will be broadcast on MLB Network and streamed on MLB.com. The lottery determines the order of top six picks of the 2025 Draft, giving it enormous implications for all 16 eligible teams.

Three years in, those are already plain to see. The Pirates snagged the top pick in the first lottery and used it to select Paul Skenes, the reigning National League Rookie of the Year. The Twins made the biggest jump in that lottery and used the No. 5 pick on Walker Jenkins, now baseball's second-ranked prospect. Last year, the Guardians won the lottery despite having only 2.0 percent odds, and turned that good fortune into Travis Bazzana (MLB No. 12).

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The Rockies and Marlins share the best odds of getting the No. 1 overall slot this year, with both teams at 22.45 percent. The Angels (17.96 percent), Nationals (10.20), Blue Jays (7.48) and Pirates (5.31) round out the top six. Neither the White Sox nor Athletics are eligible for this year's lottery. They can pick no earlier than 10th and 11th in the 2025 Draft as a result.

A full breakdown of this year’s Draft Lottery odds can be found here.

Rule 5 Draft

This year's Rule 5 Draft will take place Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET and will be streamed live on MLB.com.

Any player who turned pro at age 18 or younger in 2020 or at age 19 or older in 2021 is eligible for selection in the Major League phase of the Rule 5 Draft if he isn't on a 40-man roster. Clubs who take a player in that phase must pay his former team $100,000 and keep him on their active big league roster throughout the following season. The player can't be sent to the Minors without first clearing waivers and then getting offered back to his original organization for half his draft price.

Of the 10 players taken in the Major League phase of the 2023 Rule 5 Draft, six stuck with their new organizations: Mitch Spence (Athletics), Anthony Molina (Rockies), Nasim Nuñez (Nationals), Ryan Fernandez (Cardinals), Justin Slaten (Red Sox) and Stephen Kolek (Padres).

The most notable pick in Rule 5 history remains Hall of Famer Roberto Clemente, while modern success stories include righties Ryan Pressly and Garrett Whitlock as well as All-Star outfielder Anthony Santander.

Free-agent signings

Free-agent signings might not often impact up-and-comers directly, but many come with prospect and Draft order implications down the line for the signing player's new and former clubs.

Free agents who received and rejected a qualifying offer come with Draft compensation once they sign. If their previous club doesn’t receive revenue-sharing money and carried a payroll beneath the luxury tax in 2024, then that organization is eligible to receive a compensatory pick after the Competitive Balance Round B after the player signs elsewhere. If the club exceeded the luxury tax and loses a qualifying free agent, their pick comes after Round 4. If the club is a revenue-sharing recipient and the player signs for at least $50 million, then the compensation pick is between Round 1 and Competitive Balance Round A. If the deal is for less than $50 million, then the pick comes after the completion of Competitive Balance Round B.

This offseason, Reds right-hander Nick Martinez was the only one of 13 players who accepted his qualifying offer. Those who declined: Soto, Pete Alonso, Willy Adames, Alex Bregman, Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Teoscar Hernández, Sean Manaea, Nick Pivetta, Santander, Luis Severino and Christian Walker.

The A's have reached an agreement with Severino on a three-year, $67 million deal. The Mets add a pick after Round 4 because of that signing, while the A's forfeit their third-highest eligible pick. New York could still add an additional pick if Alonso and/or Manaea sign elsewhere.

Additionally, the Yankees, Brewers, Astros, Orioles, Braves, Dodgers, Red Sox and D-backs stand to receive Draft compensation unless they re-sign their top-ticket free agents.