A big Q facing the Red Sox & their top prospects

December 26th, 2024

This story was excerpted from Ian Browne's Red Sox Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

BOSTON -- The anticipation of the prospects has been at a fever pitch for a couple of years. It’s to the point now where the ones you’ve heard about the most -- Roman Anthony, Kristian Campbell and Marcelo Mayer -- could be on the cusp of getting their first call-ups to the Major Leagues.

So here is the question the Red Sox will try to answer internally before the offseason is finished: Will anyone from the "Big Three" break camp and be part of the team’s Opening Day lineup?

Here is a look at how all three stack up, and what would have to happen for each of them to procure a spot in manager Alex Cora’s season-opening lineup.

OF (Boston No. 1; No. 3 overall per MLB Pipeline)
The left-handed hitter’s progression through the farm system since being drafted in 2022 out of Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in South Florida has been eye-opening. He hits for average to go along with a strong batting eye and power.

Last season, he smashed 15 homers to go with 20 doubles, three triples and an .856 OPS in 84 games at Double-Portland, which led to a promotion to Triple-A Worcester. To say Anthony hit the ground running at the highest level of the Minor Leagues would be an understatement. In 35 games and 131 at-bats, he slashed .344/.463/.519 with 12 doubles, one triple, three homers and 20 RBIs.

Defensively, Anthony started 78 games in center, 18 games in left and five in right. He is considered an above-average defender with a solid arm.

So how would he fit on the roster? The Red Sox are solid in the outfield with All-Star Jarren Duran in left, defensive stud Ceddanne Rafaela in center and rookie Gold Glove Award winner Wilyer Abreu projected to return to right. Roving Rob Refsnyder is also in the fold to start against lefties, a role he excels in. And the Red Sox are still trying to add a right-handed bat to replace Tyler O’Neill, who signed with the Orioles.

If that right-handed bat doesn’t play the outfield, it would increase Anthony’s chances of cracking the roster. The Red Sox could also package Abreu in a trade to fill another need on the club, opening a spot for Anthony. Another opening could be created if Rafaela plays second base instead of primarily in center. Stay tuned.

SS (Red Sox No. 2; No. 7 overall)
There has been buzz about Mayer since the day the Red Sox selected him with the No. 4 pick in the 2021 Draft. However, the buzz has been accompanied by injuries. The left-handed hitter has yet to play 100 games in a pro season. In fact, health issues prevented him from finishing the ’23 and ’24 seasons, when he played 78 and 77 games respectively.

It was a left shoulder impingement that not only shortened Mayer’s ’23 season, but also dragged down his production following a 43-game promotion to Double-A in which he hit .189.

Healthy to start ’24, his performance with Portland was tremendous, as evidenced by a line of .307/.370/.480 with 28 doubles, eight homers and 13 stolen bases. Though he did get promoted to Triple-A on the same day as Anthony, he never got to play due to a lumbar strain.

For two reasons, Mayer faces the longest odds of the three prospects to break camp with the Red Sox. The first is the fact he hasn’t been able to play at Triple-A yet. The second is that veteran leader Trevor Story is still with the Red Sox and figures to be the shortstop if he can at last stay healthy.

INF/OF (Red Sox No. 3; No. 10 overall)
The former Georgia Tech star’s rise through Boston’s farm system has been nothing short of meteoric, ever since the club took him as a fourth-round compensation pick in the 2023 Draft. Campbell didn’t hit for power at Georgia Tech or in his initiation to pro ball in ’23, when he hit one homer in 84 plate appearances. Everything changed last season, when he thrived and climbed up the ladder from High-A to Double-A and Triple-A, finishing the season with 20 homers, 77 RBIs, 24 stolen bases and a .997 OPS over 517 plate appearances.

Campbell could have the clearest path to make the Opening Day roster given two factors: He is a right-handed hitter, and the Red Sox need most of those. One of the many positions he plays is second base, a position which is still up for grabs.