Keller returns to first-half form with revitalized cutter

August 20th, 2023

MINNEAPOLIS -- wasn’t in the business of playing games.

In the bottom of the sixth, there was a real possibility that ’s night could unravel. The Twins had the bases loaded with no outs and the Pirates clung to a one-run lead. With the lead on the line, the catcher and Keller convened. Delay suggested they try to turn a double play, and Keller agreed. Before jogging back to the plate, Delay shifted his tone.

“Then he said, ‘Screw it. We’re going to go punchie. We’re going to try to punch them out here,’” Keller recalled. “I was like, ‘Hell yeah, we’re gonna do it.’ It just flipped my mentality to, ‘They’re not going to hit my stuff right now.’ That was the mentality and we made it work.”

Keller, indeed, made it work. He struck out Royce Lewis. He struck out Donovan Solano. He struck out Joey Gallo. Inning over; lead preserved. As Keller walked off the mound with 12 strikeouts and six innings of two-run ball on his line, a performance that set the tone for the Pirates’ 7-4 win over the Twins on Saturday at Target Field, he roared twice, then gestured his glove towards his family and friends in attendance. He’s an All-Star, and stars play to their crowd.

"That's what he does. That's why he was an All-Star,” said Andrew McCutchen. “He showed up. When he needed to make the pitches that he needed to make, he made them.”

Added manager Derek Shelton, “He emptied the tank right there and got through 5-6-7 with punchouts and just executed pitches the whole time. That's not an easy group to keep off the barrel or off contact, and he threw the ball outstanding today."

As the strikeout total suggests, Keller generated a fair amount of swing-and-miss. Keller’s 18 whiffs against the Twins represent a season-high, as well as the second-most in a single game in his career. The right-hander also totaled a season-high eight whiffs with his cutter, tied for the second-most he’s had in a single outing in his career.

Keller attributed his success with the cutter to an uptick in the pitch’s velocity. His cutter clocked in at 90.2 mph against the Twins. While that velocity is right in line with his season average of 90.0 mph, Keller’s cutter velocity noticeably dropped midway through the season before creeping back up in recent outings.

In March, April and May, Keller had an average cutter velocity of 90.6 mph. Keller’s cutter velocity fell to 89.3 mph in June, then to 89.0 mph in July. The cutter’s drop in velocity coincided with the pitch’s reduced effectiveness.

In March, April, May and June, by contrast, opponents had a .213 batting average and .360 slugging percentage against Keller’s cutter. Entering Sunday, Keller’s opponents had a .486 batting average and .886 slugging percentage against Keller’s cutter in July and August. 

“For me, why am I throwing it 87, 88?” Keller said. “I went back to throwing it hard and letting it happen. That’s been the difference.”

On Aug. 3 against the Brewers, a game in which Keller allowed eight earned runs, Keller’s cutter velocity clocked in at 87.9 mph, the fourth-slowest single-game cutter velocity this season. In his previous two starts against the Braves on Aug. 8 and Reds on Aug. 13, Keller’s cutter leaped up to 91.4 mph and 90.7 mph, respectively.

“Especially to lefties, that cutter plays really, really well,” Delay said. “When you’re able to go up and in at the belt with that cutter, you’re also able to freeze on the other end with the sinker starting in that same lane. It’s another weapon for him. … He’s got a lot of weapons. So, when he’s dialed in like that, it’s really fun to call pitches and sequences.”

Due in part to the revitalized cutter, Keller is beginning to resemble the first-half form that made him an All-Star. Over his last three starts, Keller has allowed six earned runs across 17 innings (3.18 ERA) with 23 strikeouts to four walks and one home run. In his first four starts after the All-Star break, by contrast, Keller allowed 24 earned runs in 21 2/3 innings (9.97 ERA) and allowed seven home runs.

Keller showed the baseball world what he can look like when he’s at his most dominant during the first half. In recent weeks, that version of Keller has begun to emerge.

“He went out there and executed it felt like every single pitch,” Delay said. “He battled and really came through when we needed him, so I’m happy for him.”