6 pitchers who could be difference-makers for the Phils

September 7th, 2022

This story was excerpted from Todd Zolecki's Phillies Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click hereAnd subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

The Phillies sure needed that one.

Jean Segura’s walk-off single to right field in the ninth inning Tuesday night led the Phillies to a 3-2 victory over the Marlins. Segura celebrated, launching his bat high into the air. The Phillies hadn’t done much celebrating recently. They just finished a 1-5 trip through Arizona and San Francisco, raising concerns among fans. One, because the Phillies have faded each of the previous four Septembers. Two, because the pitching took a step backward.

How bad was it? Well, the Phillies allowed six walks and one hit by pitch with the bases loaded.

It is something they had not done in a six-game span since at least 1961, according to Elias Sports Bureau. Phillies starters pitched only 24 innings on the trip, walking nine, hitting one and posting a 9.00 ERA. The bullpen tossed 25 1/3 innings, walking 20, hitting two and posting a 7.01 ERA.

Maybe the injuries to Zack Wheeler, Seranthony Domínguez, Corey Knebel and Zach Eflin were finally catching up to them.

Here are six pitchers who could change the Phillies’ fortunes with improved health or performance:

Aaron Nola: Nola’s struggles the past few seasons have been well documented and dissected. He entered Tuesday with a career 4.60 ERA in September/October, nearly a run higher than his overall career ERA. He had a 6.51 ERA in five September/October starts in 2019, and a 6.19 ERA in six starts in 2021. But Nola allowed one run, while striking out 10 and walking two in 6 2/3 innings in Tuesday’s victory over the Marlins. It was exactly what the Phillies needed. It was exactly what Nola needed. “It would mean a lot,” catcher J.T. Realmuto said, when asked what it would mean to get a big month from Nola. “We need quality innings as much as we can get right now. We’re going to do the best to score these guys runs so there’s not as much stress on them, but when it comes down to it in September, it’s a little tougher on everybody. So we need the best out of him, the best out of our offense and the best out of our bullpen. But him in particular, he’s definitely important for us, so it was good to see that out of him today.”

Wheeler: It is difficult to imagine the Phillies making the postseason and going deep into October without Wheeler. He is on the 15-day IL with right forearm tendinitis, but he played catch Tuesday and said he felt nothing in the elbow, which is a marked improvement from the last time he played catch. Does Wheeler see himself pitching in meaningful games down the stretch? “Hopefully,” he said. “If things keep going right, that’s my goal. … I’d never say definitely, because you never know, but, yes, that’s my goal. I’ve never pitched in the playoffs, and I want to pitch in the playoffs. I want to help the team get there.” Wheeler reiterated that he could have kept pitching with the discomfort in his elbow, but the team chose to give him an opportunity to heal and get better.

Domínguez: He said he felt good after throwing a one-inning simulated game Tuesday. His fastballs hit 95-96 mph -- they averaged 97.8 mph during the season -- which was expected after not pitching since Aug. 17. Domínguez could begin a rehab assignment in the next few days. If so, he could be back in the bullpen before the end of the weekend.

Eflin: He threw 26 pitches in a two-inning simulated game Tuesday. He was all smiles afterward. “His stuff looked good,” Thomson said. If Eflin’s right knee feels OK on Wednesday, the next step is a rehab assignment. Eflin will be a reliever if he comes back, but he could be a nice weapon for Thomson in the season’s final few weeks.

Ranger Suárez: The lefty had a 1.02 ERA in six starts from July 16 to Aug. 17, striking out 33 and walking eight in 35 1/3 innings. In three starts since, he has a 5.40 ERA and eight walks in 13 1/3 innings. What is troubling is that Suárez hit a wall in the middle innings each time. Suárez said he is healthy. Maybe it is just a bad stretch, but the Phils need better from him.

Griff McGarry: Dave Dombrowski said a couple weeks ago that they weren’t considering McGarry or any other top pitching prospect (Andrew Painter or Mick Abel) for a promotion. But then the Phillies moved McGarry, who is the No. 4 prospect in the farm system, to the bullpen and promoted him to Triple-A, where he is expected to debut Wednesday. “We just did it just so that we’d have another option,” Thomson said. “He’s got a good arm. Hopefully with Eflin coming back, Seranthony coming back and Wheeler coming back, we’ve got a whole bunch of options.”