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Yankees Odds: +110

Red Sox Odds: -130

Over/Under: 10.5

Time: Sunday, 1:10 p.m. ET

TV: TBS

Odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings

After the New York Yankees stole Saturday’s game at Fenway Park, the Boston Red Sox go for a series win on Sunday.

The Red Sox are neck and neck atop the American League East with the Tampa Bay Rays, who just made the first big splash of July by acquiring Nelson Cruz from the Twins. Boston needs to beat teams like the Yankees who are below them to keep pace with a Rays team that could get hot quickly.

With an underwhelming pitching matchup set for the finale, let’s break down the matchup and see where the value lies.

Yankees Stole a Saturday Victory

The Yankees had no business winning Saturday afternoon’s game.

New York’s lineup was shut down for seven innings by Nathan Eovaldi, who allowed two of the Yankees’ first four hitters in the eighth inning to reach. Adam Ottavino came in and allowed two doubles, a single and then he hit a batter, and the game was lost.

The Yankees registered 10 hits on Saturday, and multi-hit games from Brett Gardner and Estevan Florial are encouraging. The problem is that duo is unlikely to be making significant contributions down the stretch of the season, or else the Bronx Bombers will be watching the postseason from home.

DJ LeMahieu and Giancarlo Stanton have been incredibly underwhelming this season, something that is especially bad because of Aaron Judge’s continued absence.

Rougned Odor, Gleyber Torres and Gary Sanchez, who got Saturday off, have led the lineup, which isn’t encouraging. New York needs its big-time bats to get going if they want to mount a serious playoff push.

Speaking of guys who need to get going, let’s talk about Domingo Germán.

The right-hander has been a solid innings-eater since the start of 2018 for the Yankees, and not much more. He has a career 4.57 ERA and 4.18 xFIP, and this season those numbers are 4.71 and 4.46.

Germán got his ERA down to 3.12 after his 11th start of the season, which came against the Red Sox. He proceeded to register a 9.98 ERA over his next four starts and made his next three appearances out of the bullpen.

This will be Germán’s fourth appearance (third start) of the season against the Red Sox. He has a 3.38 ERA over 10 2/3 innings in 2021 against Boston.

Red Sox Bullpen Needs Big Day

Martin Pérez has served his role for the Red Sox this season. He’s in the rotation to eat up as many innings as he can, and he’s not expected to pitch very deep into games. He has thrown more than six innings just once this season, and he’s only gone over 90 pitches three times in 19 outings.

The left-hander’s 4.16 ERA is not backed up by his 5.19 xERA and 4.55 xFIP, although that’s likely because Pérez is not a strikeout pitcher and invites contact.

Pérez has made two starts against the Yankees, although he has only lasted 7 2/3 innings in those outings. He does have a 3.52 ERA against New York.

The Yankees have a .765 OPS this season against left-handers, and that ranks fifth in MLB. This current Yankees roster shouldn’t be trusted that much, though. Over the last 30 days, that number is down to .723 and 20th in the majors.

Boston’s bullpen will be asked to do some heavy lifting, and it ranks seventh in ERA this season and is sixth over the last 30 days at 3.61, despite Ottavino’s woes on Saturday.

The Red Sox’s lineup, meanwhile, is the reason they entered this series in first place. Boston is getting strong years from Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers and J.D. Martinez, while Enrique Hernandez has proven to be a valuable spark atop the order.

That lineup would be even stronger if Alex Verdugo and Jarren Duran get going against right-handed pitching in the outfield, while Hunter Renfroe is deployed against lefties.

Yankees-Red Sox Pick

Neither pitcher is very exciting right now, but none of these teams’ first six matchups in July have gone over the 10.5 total, and neither’s strength is starting pitching. I wouldn’t blame you for playing the total here, but I’m going to go with the better team.

Boston’s lineup is far superior at the moment, and its bullpen is just as good as the Yankees in middle relief. Getting -130 is great value, and I’d play the Red Sox down to -140 to get a series win at Fenway Park on Sunday.

Pick: Red Sox -130 (play to -140)